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VOLUME 08 : ISSUE 69
Voyant
is Validated (Albeit Quietly So Far)
I'm
not even sure I should be talking about it, since the company hasn't put
out a press release yet. But, if it's in the public domain (filed
with the SEC) then it's fair game. The irony is that the company
really
should have put out a press release....it's great news for investors.
I have
a fairly advanced watchlist tool that lets me know when any of our profiled
companies does, well, pretty much does anything. If you don't have
a similar tool, you may have missed the fact that
Voyant International (VOYT) filed their quarterly numbers with
the SEC on Wednesday. They were good.
Crunching
the Numbers
I'm
still studying the fine print, but here are the basics ...revenue of $133K,
and a gross profit of $103K. The majority of that came from sales of their
RocketStream technology, which apparently is a high-margin product.
Folks,
that's huge. For the sake of comparison, they did about $15K in sales for
the same quarter (Q2) a year ago, and did about $14.6K in revenue during
Q1 of this year.
Those
weren't typos - Voyant increased their business by a factor of nine
between this past quarter and the one before that.
Surprised?
I'm not. I'll take you back to a couple of different things we said in
prior newsletters regarding the onset of Voyant's revenue-bearing operation.
5/8/08:
This
pre-revenue company appears to be on the verge of dropping the word 'pre'
from their description.
5/21/08:
...the stock looks like a tremendous value compared to where it was when
Voyant was a pre-revenue company just a few months ago - or even mere days
ago.
6/3/08:
Remember, they (Voyant) didn't have any sales to speak of until a couple
of weeks ago; any revenue is going to make a dent for this small company.
7/22/08:
...Waldman (the CEO) briefly added one thing I want to make sure you don't
miss...He said in his letter that Q2's sales of RocketStream were higher
than in previous quarters. He was referring to the quarter that ended on
the last day of June, which hasn't been reported yet. Anyway, I think he
may have understated the significance of those impending results...For
all intents and purposes, Voyant is a start-up. Meaningful revenue didn't
start coming in until Q1 (calendar first quarter) of this fiscal year.
For the company to tell us Q2 was better than Q1 - given the situation
- is an outstanding sign of viability.
7/24/08:
...there's
a market for RocketStream.
Today's
filing validates everything I was saying. More importantly, it validates
everything the company's been saying.
They
said they were going to get RocketStream going, and they did. They
said they were going to enter the FCC 'white space' with broadband applications,
and
they did. They said they were going to turn Aviation Broadband into
a product, and though it's not bearing revenue yet, the technology has
been tested and works.
The
numbers - real dollars - verify it.....the company is for real.
No, $133,000 isn't going to set the world on fire, but that's not why we
own a stock. We own a stock for what a company is going to do a
few months to a few years from now. After today, I have an enormous degree
of confidence in Voyant International's future.
Thinkin'
About Valuation
I'm
not even going to try and make a concrete projection for Voyant's top and
bottom line over the next twelve months. However, I don't mind saying with
a $16 million market cap, VOYT could be one of the market's better speculative
values right now.
First
of all, we're still hearing the echoes of RocketStream's launch.
I don't think it would be too nutty to assume another nine-fold
increase in RocketStream revenue is possible.
You
all know how the sales process works for a product like this. It can take
weeks - if not months - for a company mulling RocketStream over
to make a decision. All the seeds planted one and two quarters back may
not bear fruit until the current or the next quarter. All the while though,
Voyant is planting more seeds.
So,
I really have no idea what to project when it comes to RocketStream's financial
impact over the next couple of quarters. I don't think half a million bucks
per quarter in the near-term is out of line though. Heck, it's conservative
from my point of view.
Then
factor in the impending passenger-jet Internet service, and $2 million
worth of white space radios ordered last quarter (though I don't
know one iota about their delivery date). I have to think Aviation
Broadband will eventually be a multi-million venture for Voyant. Even in
its early stages though, I'm looking for quarterly numbers of at
least the high six-figure area.
All
in all, I think Voyant could be annually doing millions of dollars
in business in the foreseeable future, once firing on all cylinders.
Today's
huge top line increase adds another layer of evidence to the argument.
Yet, the market cap is only $16 million. Go figure.
The
stock has been slowly turning a downtrend into a flat trend. Perhaps it's
an omen of an uptrend in the works, as is the almost-bullish MACD
indicator. A close above 13 cents would go far in confirming that possibility.
In
the meantime, if you're wondering why today's good news didn't create
a pop, I really think it's because they didn't send a press release
with the 10Q ... nobody really knows about the good news yet.
I don't
know why the company didn't publicize the filing, though I did notice
the results were marked as unaudited. Maybe they want to tout audited numbers.
Still, they filed them with the SEC, so they shouldn't be too far
off the mark. If anything changes significantly, I'll let you know.
I suspect
you'll see a press release later this evening, or perhaps Thursday morning.
Just remember you heard it here first.
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