News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Tuesday Proves the Market Loves to Yank Your Chain
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Congratulations to those of you who are also Elite Opportunity subscribers. Your Alphabet (GOOGL) trade was up a little more than 2% today following a surprisingly strong earnings report from the web search giant. And, thanks to today's gain, the overall trade is now up 30% since John Monroe recommended it back in late August. That's a sweet five-month gain for any kind of environment, but it's an especially impressive gain considering the market's lousy environment we've witnessed during that time. I've said it before but I'll say it again... the Elite Opportunity service is a great weapon to add to your arsenal in any type of environment, but John and his staff somehow manage to really shine when stocks are struggling... when traders need the most help. Whatever he's doing, he clearly works. It's obviously too late to go back and pick up the Alphabet trade, but it's not too late to be on the beneficial end of John's next recommendation. Here's all you need to do, or simply cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Now about today's market... Sit Tight Yeah, you know, I'm not sweating today's dip too much. Although it was sizeable and the volume behind it wasn't bad, I just never got the impression the bears meant it. It just seems like any weakness we see from the market is ultimately rooted in indecision, with a nod towards the possibility of a recession. In fact, the recession chatter seems to be getting a little louder and a little more common now. If it gets any louder or any more prevalent, I fear the sheer fear of a recession could end up making one happen as investors tighten their purse strings and companies hunker down, fiscally speaking. I still contend, however, based on what I see right now and the shape of things right now, we're still in an economic growth phase despite the dire headlines. I could write a short book on the psychology of the matter, but I'll spare you. Just trust me when I say a recession isn't likely to materialize at a point when most people overtly fear one is going to materialize. If traders and investors of all ilks think it's going to happen, then it's already being combated by government efforts, and the most plausible worst-case scenarios are already baked into stock prices. In other words, recessions tend to take shape only at a point in time when the masses think they won't. That's not the case right now. That said, I'm still mentally preparing for all possibilities. As for the chart, the S&P 500 fell 1.87% on Tuesday to close back under the 20-day moving average line as well as below a key line at 1908. You can also see the VIX pushed up and off its 50-day moving average line to log what looks like a modest upward reversal effort. I think the smart-money thing to do right now is nothing. We mentioned to you yesterday this market remains mostly on the fence, psychologically speaking, which leaves the door open to multiple possibilities... both bearish and bullish. There's no trade worth risking right now in light of today's action, at least as far as I can see. That said, another bad day and a close back under 1876 might have me rethinking this "on the fence" point of view. Stay tuned. Oh, and for what it's worth, while the broad market was down on Tuesday, the utility sector was up once again, underscoring the possibility that traders are moving into a defensive mindset. There's no point in looking at any other charts, save one... a look at the yields and treasury bond charts. It is what it is and what it is, is an indication that traders don't think the Fed has any room or reason to actually go through with at least a couple more rate hikes this year. This presents a small problem for the equity market, in that what's good for bonds is generally not good for stocks. We'll see how it plays out. Stuff... You Just Have to See For Yourself I don't know if it was just a coincidence or if I happen to see things in a different light when I'm in a certain state of mind, but for whatever reason today, a trio of things just struck me as weird. I figured I'd share these with you as I was signing off. In no particular order... Chubbies Shorts: I....ok, I don't even know how I want to say this. Have you heard of Chubbies Shorts yet? I didn't even want to know if there is some sort of innuendo packed into the name. All I know is, this young company is a re-introducing men's short shorts that were the norm in the 70s and 80s. The weird part is, these are retro shorts are something of a hit - perhaps only as a joke - and even more remarkable is the fact the company was able to raise $9 million to grow the business. There are biotech companies trying to develop a cure for cancer they can raise nine bucks, but this men's clothing brand (that seems to cater to a market that shouldn't be wearing short shorts) can garner $9 million to invest in its growth. Breaking News! For-profit Corporations Want To Make As Much Income As Possible!: I know it's been a while since you've had your daily dose of Martin Shkreli and/or Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX). So, I'll catch you up today. The U.S. House of Representatives Committee in Oversight and Government Reform has officially determined that profit was the motive behind outrageous price hikes of specialty drugs offered by Valeant, as well as the now-being-investigated Martin Shkreli, who was the former CEO of Turing Pharmaceuticals.... you know, the company Hillary Clinton was talking about in September when she tweeted she'd be taking aim at specialty pharmaceutical price-gouging. Why in the world it took - literally - an act of Congress to come to this conclusion is beyond me. Whatever the case, it's official now. I'm so glad they made the call. Otherwise it wouldn't have known a company will be as greedy as possible if given the opportunity. Thanks Congress. (Yes, I'm being facetious.) Seriously? A Coin Toss?: To be fair, in many ways it's the only fair way the Democratic Iowa caucus could have chosen Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders. In many other ways, though, the fact that it's even possible for our presidential election process to come down to a coin toss - six of them, actually - may be an indictment in and of itself. Not that I have a better solution for such a standoff, but I think if I was an election official I could come up with something a little stronger than completely random chance. Even when senators and congressmen missed votes on critical bills, the rest of the House or the Senate members don't toss a coin to fill in a vote where one is missing. They simply tally the votes they have. It's no wonder the United States' political system is losing credibility overseas. As complex and unsophisticated as the initial candidate-picking process is, things like this are bound to happen sooner or later. That's it for today, folks. We'll be back in the saddle tomorrow at the same time.