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VOLUME
03: ISSUE 49
Hovering
Hummingbird?
In
March,
we profiled Hummingbird Ltd. (NASDAQ:
HUMC) as the company's shares traded at $16.25. Since then, the
shares rose 32 percent to $21 and change and have subsequently settled
down to $19.85. Although presently range bound between $18 and $20, the
prospects continue to look intriguing.
Simply put, Hummingbird, through
its powerful suite of enterprise software, manages a company's data and
information and turns them into knowledge assets. Sound boring? Hardly.
For businesses that depend on the integration of documents, information
and data, the result for customers is a robust and scalable system that
ultimately makes all these disparate, cross-platform data constituents
hum like a well-oiled machine. Over 5 million users now depend on Hummingbird's
Enterprise products to enhance efficiency, cut costs and, of course, increase
profits.
Quality
will likely out
Technically, the shares seem to
be forming an uptrend and should they break out of this range the next
resistance is $22. Conversely, a break below $16 would not be good. Actual
and projected numbers seem to favor the former scenario. Projected earnings
for fiscal 2003 and 2004 (as at September) come in at $1.35 and $1.51 a
share respectively. Future price/earnings ratios with the shares at $19.50
look like 14 times for fiscal 2003 and 13 times for 2004. Even if those
numbers decline slightly, the ratios remain compelling. Sales for the 9
months as at June 2003 were better by 4 percent, at $139 million, over
the same period 2002.
In March, we saw the per share projections
for fiscal 2003 and 2004 at $1.27 and $1.41. Nice to see the projected
improvement in what is still a challenging environment for both hardware
and software companies.
The reason the shares' climb was
halted at $21 and change was due to the announcement in early July that
acquisition costs and postponement of some pending business lowered guidance
for third quarter earnings by about 10 cents to 25 cents a share. The actual
earnings number came in at 26 cents a share. Also announced in the
third quarter report was the company's cash position of $111 million dollars,
which, given the company's float of 18 million shares, translates into
a nice downside buffer of approximately $6 a share.
Low PEG in a round hole
Even
the PEG ratio (price/earnings to growth), at a level of 1.1, should also
entice investors. To quote myself from a previous issue:
"The PEG ratio is calculated
by dividing the price/earnings (P/E) ratio by the earnings per share
(EPS) growth. The PEG ratio gives investors more information than the p/e
ratio, as there are more constituent numbers.
While the p/e tells the story
of how a stock fares in the current environment against its own historical
p/e, those of its peers and against the market overall, the PEG takes the
process one step further and relates a company's growth to share price.
In this way, investors can see whether the share price is overvalued or
undervalued based on historical or projected growth figures."
The PEG median is 1.0, which represents
fair value for a share price. Below 1.0 is undervalued, while a ratio above
1, say 2.0 or 3.0 denotes an overvalued situation. However, the ratio has
to be viewed within the context of a sector's volatility, but the standard
holds in most arenas.
PSR: A financial health test
Another caveat, albeit minor, is
that HUMC's price to sales ratio (PSR), at 1.6 times, is a bit high: But
given that sales appear to be on a decent uptrend, that shouldn't deter
investors. Again, the ratio is dependent on the industry in question. The
PSR is calculated by dividing a stock's current price (or total market
cap) by its sales per share (or total annual sales). Intel's PSR is 6.2.
Cisco's is 6.3. White Electronics' is 2.3. You get the point. The ratio
evidences how much you're paying (through the share price) for each $1
of sales.
We'll do a piece on PSR in the not-too-distant
future. Promise. In the meantime, have a look a Hummingbird. It's a strong
contender in the burgeoning sector of data management.
I'm sure you'll have comments. Send
them in here: Editor@smallcapnetwork.com
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