News Details – Smallcapnetwork
What to Watch For Next Week After Friday's Stumble
/

February 2, 2024

/

PDT

Good Friday afternoon all, and even though today wasn't necessarily a great one for stocks, today's session caps off what was still another winning week for the market - the tenth winning week in the last eleven for the S&P 500. The same pretty much goes for the Dow and the NASDAQ. There was something different with today's seemingly-modest selloff though ...there was a ton of volume behind the move. In fact, it was one of the higher-volume days we've seen all year, with considerably more participation behind the selling effort than we've seen on any of the bullish days with this leg of the rally. I could use it as a reason to remind you the one missing thing with the rally effort to-date is volume. I could even say that today's high-volume selling marks the beginning of the pullback we've been looking for since last week. Thing is, despite the fact that we're not looking for any more near-term upside from stocks, there wasn't actually anything about today that screams a monster-sized pullback is underway. That's right - today's just a blip. As a matter of fact, despite the small loss on a closing basis, the way the market and its indices rebounded a little around the middle of the day is actually pretty impressive. Like we said earlier in the week, until we see a close under a prior day's low, the rally is still intact. We didn't see a lower close today. On the other hand, we're still leaning bearishly. We explained the use of Bollinger bands a couple of weeks ago, so we don't want to rehash that lesson with you now. We'll just remind you they're the market's built-in way of letting you know how far is too far (bullishly as well as bearishly). Well, all the major indices are dealing with at least one upper Bollinger band right now, suggesting there's just not much room left to keep rallying. Since it's rare for stocks to stagnate, this ultimately means the bearish undertow is building while the bullish undertow fades away. The nearby chart of the S&P 500 illustrates (1) that the index is having trouble with one of these ceilings right now, and (2) that these Bollinger bands [we're using 20-day and 50-day band lines] have acted as ceilings and floors quite a bit of late. There's no reason to think they're going to stop doing so now. Where's it all going? We still suspect a decent dip is in the works. It doesn't have to be a huge one. We just need to burn off a fair amount of this overbought pressure. A revisit to somewhere between 1450 and 1500 would do the trick. Like we said to you yesterday though, until the market's actually ready to give up some of that ground, what 'should be' happening is irrelevant. Just stay ready for traders to have that 'aha' moment, 'cause it can materialize with no warning. By the way, the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity just issued a new trading idea today. I can't tell you what it is, but I can tell you it's a good one. I will give you a hint though.... today's pick is one that we've taken a very close look at sometime within the past two weeks. These guys just finally saw what they wanted to see, and pulled the trigger. That patience is so important too. I've mentioned it before but I'll say it again now... picking the right stock is only half the battle. The timing part - the entry as well as the exit - is equally important, and that's what the editors of the SCN EO excel at. Stop missing out. Go here and see what it's all about it. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ For Next Week We know the weekend is here, and the last thing you want to do on a Friday afternoon (or whenever you're reading this) is make a mental calendar of the market-moving catalysts in the lineup for the coming week. So, we'll take one for the team and do it for you. There are really only three arenas we need to focus on when it comes to stock-related news.... FDA announcements, earnings, and economic data. We'll just break it down like that. We only see one major event in the biotech horizon, and that's the March 21st meeting of the Advisory Committee to look at Titan Pharmaceuticals' (TTNP) Probuphine. The drug is a subdermal implant for the maintenance treatment of adult opioid dependence. That's been something of a hot button lately, enough so that the FDA gave it a 'priority review' designation. Probuphine is already available, but only as a daily dose. Titan's rework of the drug delivers the medicine around the clock for six months; that's clearly an easier option. Thing is, even the daily dosage format generated $1.3 billion in revenue in 2011 alone. An easier way to administer the drug could be a game-changer. The Advisory Committee's recommendation isn't the FDA's final call on any matter, but the FDA accepts the committee's recommendation most of the time. As far as earnings go, there's nothing until Wednesday, but we have several to work through beginning then. Although FedEx (FDX) should be a telling barometer for the whole economy, we're just as interested in what General Mills (GIS) will have to say. That $0.57 per share the pros are looking for compared to last year's $0.55 may feel anemic, but it would actually be a record fiscal Q3 for the company. It's interesting that General Mills has been called a victim of the rising costs of commodities for over two years now, yet it's never been more profitable. We've seen five straight years of rising per-share profits, and we're on pace for a sixth. Be careful what you believe when you hear tales of woe. If Tiffany (TIF) really does only earn $1.36 per share, that'll be the second time it's seen a year-over-year dip in Q4's earnings. The rise of digital and the slow (almost imperceptible) fade of luxury spending continues to chip away at the old-school bellwethers. And just for the record, Tiffany has missed estimates in each of its past four quarters. Not good. On the economic front, it's a HUGE week for housing, kicking off with housing starts and building permits on Tuesday, and finishing up with existing home sales on Thursday. All of these numbers have been getting broadly better for a couple of years now, and we don't expect to see anything different this time around. Just bear in mind these numbers can still fluctuate a little from one month to the next. Traders tend to react to each little gyration, but these numbers aren't that kind of data. We'll be taking a longer-term look at each piece of data for you when it comes down the pipe. Did You See? We don't know how many of you used the Google (GOOG) Reader, but if you did use the RSS feed aggregator, then you're out of luck now - it's going away. That's too bad too, since it was actually one of the nicer and cleaner (very Google-esque) RSS self-selected, virtual newspapers out there. If you're only concern with Google is as an investor, though, John Udovich makes a great point about Reader's demise. Check it out. Speaking of Google, its Android operating system may well be on the verge of becoming even more prolific, if the upcoming launch of the Samsung Galaxy 4S goes as well as expected. Thing is, a lot of investors are making decisions simply because the new Galaxy "looks great", or because the new Galaxy "still doesn't compare to the iPhone." When it's all said and done though, the only thing that matters is numbers, and that's what James Brumley gives you today - some specific forecasts for the new 4S, the fading numbers of the iPhone 5, and the slightly-irrelevant numbers of the BlackBerry (BBRY) Z10. Just for the record though, John Udovich points out that just because the new Z10 isn't a force to be reckoned with doesn't mean the company is something to avoid. Here's his counter-take. If you're not a coffee drinker, you might want to become one soon. Bryan Murphy dissected a fast-growing coffee drive-thru chain that he attributes most of its success to, as he puts it, "is likely due to the scantily clad servers that .... ummm, 'accentuate their attributes'. Think Hooters, but with a focus on coffee, smoothies, and cold drinks." 'Nuff said. Finally, though we already gave you a list of large cap names with upcoming earnings, John Udovich gave us a preview of three small cap healthcare names with earnings on the docket for next week. They're Pernix Therapeutics Holdings (PTX), Rockwell Medical (RMTI), and Cytomedix (CMXI). They all report on Monday though, so if you want to know, you need to check it out ASAP. That's it for this week. Have a great weekend everyone - it finally looks like there's decent weather for most of our readers. We'll be back to work on Monday.