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Huh? Both Parties Are Picking Their Least Electable Candidates?
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Happy hump-day, folks. With the market up again today, we're now squarely back in the middle ground... between a technical rock and a hard place. As long as we waffle in this range, there won't be a whole lot worth talking about. That's why today's edition is going to be a little shorter than usual. You know what I want to do first though? This isn't a politically-leaned newsletter, for a lot of reasons. That's not going to change today either; you vote for who you want to vote for, and we'll vote for who we want to vote for. I do want to touch on a political subject today, though, not because I care who's winning their presidential primary races, but because there's just such a fascinating disconnect from both party's members. It's just all in fun. Say What? I don't know how far you guys and gals look at the presidential voting polls, but odds are you at least know Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner for the Democratic party, and Donald Trump is the leading Presidential hopeful among Republicans. You would think -- based on each party's chosen frontrunners -- those frontrunners would be seen as the best bet for a victory against the other party's chosen frontrunners. You would be wrong in thinking that, however. In every single major poll, John Kasich is the only Republican who beats Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head vote, by a margin of anywhere from 4% to 11%. Polls show Clinton beating Cruz or Trump in a head-to-head race by a decided margin. Yet, Kasich is still the least popular of the three GOP frontrunners. That's not all. While most polls thus far show Clinton beating the top two GOP candidates, that victory is only a small-to-modest (read "scary") margin. Bernie Sanders, conversely, has polled to whip Cruz as well as Trump by a moderate-to-wide margin. He's not highly favored against John Kasich, though that Republican laggard currently poses the least real threat to anyone. Yet, Sanders is well behind Clinton within the Democrats' race though either are going to have to face off against Cruz or Trump. In other words, the best bet for a Democratic victory in November is Sanders, but the Dems are picking Clinton. The best bet for a Republican victory in November is Kasich, but the GOP is picking Trump. What's it mean? Well, it isn't entirely unheard of for a party to collectively like a candidate that's arguably the less-electable in a general election. I've never seen it to this extreme though. It's just looks like there are a lot of "Clinton or a Republican" and "Trump or a Democrat" people out there in their respective parties... a lot more than we usually see. Crazy. Coulda Shoulda Woulda As most of you know all too well, I frequently tout how good of a stock-picker the Elite Opportunity's John Monroe is. Today I want to show you. I still can't tell you the specific trading instrument this is, since EO members deserve a little more of a head-start than they already have. I will tell you, however, it won't take a whole lot more upside from here to let you in on the secret. Anyway, here it is... the chart of the trade John suggested back on March 21st. That day is marked with an arrow on the chart. As of today's big move, that trade is now up a hefty 22%. That's a 22% gain in just 11 trading days. Thing is, with the move above a key ceiling just unfurling today, there's a ton of upside left to enjoy. The $64,000 question: How did John see it coming? Well, that's something of a trade secret, though I will acknowledge experience and intuition had a lot to do with it. However John found it doesn't really matter right now. What matters is the fact that there's soooo much room for a recovery move from here, and there's all kinds of reason to expect this slingshot move (out of a trading range) to keep rolling for a while. There's still some time to tap into this move, if you want to go ahead and become a subscriber to the Elite Opportunity service. Just don't tarry. Then again, this kind of stock-picking is pretty much the norm for Monroe and his team, so even if you don't want to jump into this one, another one just like it could be around the corner. You just have to be willing to pull the trigger and become an EO member. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Ho-Hum Don't get too stoked about today's gain. When all was said and done, we're still below last Friday's close, and still trapped between some big-time support and resistance levels. It doesn't look like anyone knows what in the cards, so traders are doing as little as possible until someone -- anyone -- tips their hand. The daily chart of the S&P 500 below is what it is. The index reversed its pullback before it even got a chance to test the 20-day moving average line at 2040 as a floor, but the ceiling at 2078 still stands. The VIX is also still trapped between a floor and a ceiling. The weekly chart of the S&P 500 once again puts this pause in perspective. There's a major falling resistance line in the way. This is where the buyers should start to hesitate, if only to think things over before pushing through that resistance line. Just sit back and relax for a few days. We'll have answers soon enough. Dollar on the Verge Last but not least, there's not a lot of "news" to it, but I did want to show you how the U.S. Dollar Index is quietly inching towards a break under a pivotal floor at 93.85, and then to a support line at 93.3. Below those levels, there's not a lot of reason to think the dollar won't melt-down. The smaller chart seen below partially tells the story, but this full-screen chart puts the recent pullback and the floors around 93 in perspective. Again, I'm one of those guys that thinks a slightly lower dollar - provided it doesn't make a beeline for lower levels - would do U.S. corporations more good than harm. We'll keep an eye on this chart for that very reason. That's all for today, folks. Talk to you Thursday.