Dow
Jones
10932.62
+67.80
12:13
pm PST, February 1, 2006
NASDAQ
2306.43
+0.61
For
info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com
S
& P 500
1281.35
+1.27
Change
your subscription status here
Russell
2000
735.04
+1.84
VOLUME
06: ISSUE 9
Features:
Digging Deep into CDW. New Digest Additions.
There seems to be some controversy surrounding
mid-cap hardware and software seller/solutions company CDW Corp (NASDAQ:
CDWC). Seems there's a group of investors who want to talk this
one down. Stats show that there is a whopping 7 percent short position
of the 80 million shares outstanding. Call us contrarians, but why? Short
term I smell a squeeze. Long-term it looks a winner; let's dig deeper.
CDW Corporation and its subsidiaries
engage in the direct marketing of multi-brand computers, and related technology
products and services in the United States. CDW is a principal source of
technology from top name brands such as Adobe, APC, Apple, Cisco, HP, IBM,
Lenovo, Microsoft, Sony, Symantec, Toshiba and ViewSonic.
CDW has almost $575 million in cash
and no debt. Sales for 2005 were $6.29 billion ($5.7 billion for 2004)
against a market cap of $4.5 billion. The p/e against 2005 earnings of
$3.29 against a share price of $56 is 17 times. For 2006 and 2007 the projected
numbers are $3.24 and $3.47 respectively for p/e's of 17 times and 16 times.
The company bought back $258 million of its own shares in 2005 and paid
out $35 million in dividends. Other than a slight decline in sales for
2006--which is fairly common--not seeing the problem so far.
For the reasons above and below,
investors should use the current price weakness in CDW to accumulate shares
for the long-term.
Maybe
the technical picture is crappy:
Apparently not. While we wouldn't
be surprised to see CDW pullback to the $50 area and blow out the weaklings
before it steams into a serious up move, the chart looks constructive enough
that one could buy here and on dips. Our technical target settles
out at around $85-$90, so a couple of bucks here or there is likely irrelevant.
The market for computers and peripherals
is roughly $100 billion a year and growing. While CDW ain't no Google from
a momentum perspective--thankfully--revenues and earnings have been increasing
nicely; growth has been consistent and frankly quite impressive over the
last few years.
Sexy? Mais non. Even the dozen or
so analysts that follow the company are firmly on the fence with a wussy
buy rating of 2.5 out of 5. Curious.
And, as an aside, I've ordered stuff
in the past from CDW. Smooth. Fast. Good prices. I, and dare I say the
majority of consumers, don't need much more.
The financial ratios are also really
good. Price to sales is less than 1 at around .72. You don't see that very
often. Microsoft has a p/s ratio of over 7. As well, CDW's PEG ratio
is a solid 1 which gives virtually no value to any future growth surprises/expansion.
We think that's a mistake. Microsoft's PEG is 1.62.
The CDW story is surprisingly simple.
It sells computers, software and electronics stuff. And over the last few
years it has sold more and more. Our interest in the stock is two-fold.
First, we believe that the current market price does not reflect the growth
to date and investors appear needlessly worried that revenues will slow.
Second, the future growth appears robust as the company opens new sales
channels and obviously builds its brand as a premier site to get the latest
and greatest products worldwide.
And for those reasons, investors
should own the shares long-term. Doesn't get more complicated than that.
By the way, for the more aggressive
traders among us, CDW is optionable. Have a look at the expiries and
strike prices and see if either suits your time horizon and risk profile.
And, if you haven't already noticed,
check out our new sidenotes column for up-to-date market calls, alerts
and more. Stay tuned.
We
Value Your Feedback
Got comments, questions or suggestions?
Send 'em on over: Editor@smallcapnetwork.com
If you wish to send a written request
or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402
San Diego, CA 92130
Option
Alert: INTC
On January
18th, we looked at Intel (NASDAQ:
INTC) and suggested the 06April 22.50 calls if they could be snagged
for under $1. Currently they are 55 cents a contract and the 06April20
calls are $1.90 good value with the shares at $21.43. Might want to check
out longer expiries if April seems too soon. Once the brouhaha regarding
the overreaction to the last numbers release cools, there is likely a nice
bounce coming. Straight option purchases are for aggressive investors only.
Making
Sense
Sense Holdings
(OTCBB: SEHO)
looking perky as volumes increase and the shares look like they want to
break 30 cents. Company recently announced further measures to ramp up
development of the handheld explosives/narcotics/biological threat detection
device. Obviously landing on more investors' radar screens. Will keep readers
informed as developments warrant. Getting extremely interesting.
Profit
Alert: MRK
We noted on the
SCBLOG
that we're taking profits on Merck (NYSE:
MRK) as it has moved up to $34.50 from our call in August 05 at
under $26. The intelligentsia got scared off due to Vioxx concerns, but
our work showed the price then already reflected that concern and the technical
picture looked good. Now it's approaching the old high and even if it takes
that out we see a sell-off coming. Any entries here should have tight stops.
INFA
Takeout Target?
Kind of the same
scenario with Informatica (NASDAQ:
INFA) also noted on the SCBLOG.
As the shares crossed $15 and earnings were skookum, it may still get taken
out, but a tight stop to protect profits or on new purchases would be wise.
We have been on this one since $7.50, so taking at least a bit off the
table would be prudent. Or at least protect a large slug of profit.
Subscribe
Information is power and timely information is profitable. Become informed and profit from SmallCapDigest Profiles and Trading Alerts by becoming a Preferred Member today. There is no cost associated with your email subscription. Add your email address below and make sure to check your email inbox and confirm your opt-in request to start receiving the SmallCapDigest Email Newsletter on a regular basis.
To ensure newsletter delivery, you can add any additional email addresses you may have to the SmallCapDigest Member List. Receiving the SmallCapDigest Newsletter in multiple locations is the best way of making sure you don't miss the next investing or trading opportunity! For web based email addresses, the SmallCapDigest recommends @yahoo.com or @aol.com for timely and reliable email newsletter delivery.
Subscribe Here
Note: Your email address will be kept strictly confidential, and will not be shared with any other entity for any purpose at any time. If you no longer wish to receive the SmallCapDigest, simply follow the instructions located at the bottom of every SmallCapDigest Newsletter Edition.
Unsubscribe
Here
D I S C
L A I M E R:
The
SmallCap Digest is an independent electronic publication committed to providing
our readers with factual information on selected publicly traded
companies. SmallCap Digest is not a licensed investment professional or
broker-dealer. All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial
analysis and other pertinent criteria with a view toward maximizing
the upside potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk,
whenever possible. Moreover, as detailed below, this publication
accepts compensation from third party consultants and/or companies which
it features for the publication and circulation of the SmallCap Digest
or representation on SmallCapNetwork.net. Likewise, this newsletter
is owned by TGR Group, LLC. To the degrees enumerated herein,
this newsletter should not be regarded as an independent publication.
Visit
Here to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered,
or visit the following web address: http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/compensation_disclosure.html
for our full compensation disclosure and http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/short_term_alerts.html
for Trading Alerts compensation and disclosure.
All statements
and expressions are the sole opinions of the editors and are subject
to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a
company in the newsletter is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or
sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information
to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the
accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein.
From time to
time TGR Group LLC sells shares in the open market it receives as compensation
for coverage of client companies. Since the shares are received as compensation
for services as previously disclosed, and not for investment purposes,
the editors do not view the sale of the shares as contradictory to any
advice delivered in the content. This should be viewed as a conflict of
interest by shareholders or prospective shareholders of the client companies.
The editor,
members of the editor's family, and/or entities with which the editor
is affiliated aside from TGR Group LLC itself, are forbidden by company
policy to own, buy, sell or otherwise trade stock for their own benefit
in the companies who appear in the publication unless specifically disclosed
in the newsletter. The profiles, critiques, and other editorial content
of the SmallCap Digest and SmallCapNetwork.net may contain statements that
appear forward as it relates to the expected capabilities of the companies
mentioned herein. Some of the companies featured in the SmallCap Digest
Newsletter pay an ESP (Electronic Service Provider) fee of $2,500 per month
to an affiliated Technology Company for electronic delivery of this newsletter
and other web related technology services.
THE READER
SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND DO THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE INVESTING
IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED. INVESTING IN SECURITIES IS SPECULATIVE
AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE INFORMATION FOUND IN THIS PROFILE
IS PROTECTED BY THE COPYRIGHT LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MAY NOT BE
COPIED, OR REPRODUCED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT THE EXPRESSED, WRITTEN CONSENT
OF THE EDITORS OF SMALLCAPNETWORK.NET.
We encourage
our readers to invest carefully and read the investor information available
at the web sites of the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC")
at http://www.sec.gov and/or the National
Association of Securities Dealers ("NASD") at http://www.nasd.com.
We also strongly recommend that you read the SEC advisory to investors
concerning Internet Stock Fraud, which can be found at http://www.sec.gov/consumer/cyberfr.htm
. Readers can review all public filings by companies at the SEC's EDGAR
page. The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at
its web site.