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VOLUME 07: ISSUE 9
A
Second Chance on Titan Global ?
It's
been a little over a week now since we first issued our coverage of Titan
Global Holdings (OTCBB:
TTGL), and so far, we're pretty pleased. Of course, it's been something
of a roller coaster since then. Following the initial profile from January
13th, we saw shares move from a close of $1.21 to a high of $1.40 on the
17th, then back to today's level of $1.16. Overall though, the broad uptrend
still looks great to us.
But
the swings? To be honest, they're not surprising. It often seems like
we see our profiled companies 'pop' after we launch our first opinions,
and in a case like Titan where the underlying story was really compelling
to begin with, the stock can get traction on its own ....shares were
already in a stair-step uptrend. Fanning the volatility flames was
the earnings news from the 17th. Of course, they were as impressive as
we figured they'd be - EBITDA improved by 50% over Q1 of the previous year.
All
the gyration also brought up a lot of great reader questions about handling
volatility. Let's take a detailed walk through TTGL's chart, and discuss
our thoughts about some of the daily changes we can study that may affect
how we trade these shares in the very near future. We'll even close with
a pretty explicit opinion.
Walking
Up Stairs
Have
you ever heard the phrase 'Buy the rumor, sell the news'? Not that
we whole-heartedly agree with the premise, but this may well be the mentality
we were working through last week. The stock surged in front of earnings
(gapped, actually) to top off what had already been a very solid breakout
move from a consolidation range. Then when the news finally hit, it seems
as if the owners at the time figured it couldn't possibly get any better,
as they locked in hefty profits (thus, 'selling the news').
So
do we follow the crowd? In our opinion, not this time. Going back to May
of last year, selling the news looked to be a short-lived philosophy. Each
minor dip was met with an even stronger rebound....with the rebound typically
coming on - ironically - news, or at least the rumor of it. This
is why we feel it pays to get in touch with a stock's personality. The
lion's share of the rewards since early last year have been handed over
to those traders buying on the dip - not the sellers.
And
where are we now in the ebb and flow cycle? To us, it looks we're nearing
the end of the ebb. In other words, we think most of any selling/profit-taking
is over and done with. On the nearby chart, we've loosely drawn the stair-step
rally that now dates back several months. Simultaneously, notice how the
three major consolidation (sideways) periods we see on the chart all lasted
for several days. Assuming we're still in this mode, we might need a little
more time to burn off any lingering sellers.
To
mark when we think the stock may take that next 'step', we're using a long-term
support line as a guide. There are two basic possibilities here. The first
is the possibility that TTGL shares could keep sliding until the line is
met ....probably around the $1.00 area. The second scenario - and the
one we think is more likely - is consolidation at or near the current
$1.16 level. Since the support line is rising, the stock wouldn't have
to do anything to eventually find that floor and make the next leg higher.
When
and if we do get such a bounce, it could happen in a hurry - like the last
four did. That's one of the reasons we feel you've got to stay in a stock
like TTGL, as long as the bigger picture story and chart looks good.
Potential
Retracement Levels
Regular
readers may also recall we're fans of Fibonacci retracement levels. So,
we've added a chart with Fibonacci lines nearby. The lower edge is parked
at 85 cents. That's close to where we topped in early October, where we
gapped in late October, and where we found support during the November/December
consolidation. In other words, it's been an important level.
The
run from 85 cents to the recent peak of $1.40 was a nice 64.7% rally. We
thought we might just see a 38.2% retracement from the high after we saw
lows of $1.21 over the previous three sessions. But, it looks like Tuesday's
low of $1.10 put the 61.8% retracement line in play. It's at $1.07. If
you're shopping for the ideal entry point, we'd say that would be it. However,
there's one thing to note about waiting for the perfect retracement......you
may never see it.
See,
based on this stock's history, we won't be shocked if it spins its wheels
momentarily where it is right now, then surges out of reach. Or, maybe
we'll see it just rocket higher without warning, foregoing the consolidation
period. The point is, if you like the trading idea based on the underlying
information (as we do), trying to save yourself about a dime's worth of
entry may end up leaving you in the dust during any future rally.
We
liked the stock at $1.21, and we even liked it at $1.40. Sure we'd like
it at $1.07....but that window may already be closed. True, the recent
market environment seems to favor short-term reversals more than continuations,
making the 'find a confirmed' bottom approach more attractive...on the
surface. The headache we see with that idea though is, the precise bottoms
have been exceedingly difficult to pin-point.
Our
View
If
you liked the idea a week and a half ago, but were afraid to jump into
the pile of frenzied buyers, we think this is a great second chance. Likewise,
it looks like the heaviest wave of selling (let's face - profit taking)
is in the past too, with shares climbing up and off of today's lows pretty
well.
As
a reminder, our suggested target on this stock is $3.00, with a suggested
stop of $0.70. And, we feel the recent pullback from the new 52-week high
may be about as good of an entry point as you could hope for. Based on
the underlying fundamentals we discussed a little over a week ago (which
you can review here), we think this name's still got the potential
to pay off big. And if you didn't get a chance to look over our initial
analysis, we'd recommend you do - we think the company's revenue picture
fully justifies this upward-marching chart, even right up to $3.00 or higher.
We
Value Your Feedback
Got comments, questions or suggestions?
Send 'em on over: Editor@smallcapnetwork.com
If you wish to send a written request
or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402
San Diego, CA 92130
Clearly
Canadian Names One Of Its New Distributors
Last
Wednesday, Clearly Canadian (OTCBB:
CCBEF) teased us with some news about new distributors, but didn't
spill any beans about who any of them were. We finally got a hint today,
as one of them was finally announced. Intrastate Distributors Inc. will
be distributing Clearly's line in Michigan. And as far as distributors
go, Intrastate seems to be a good one....it's one of the state's biggest
distributors of non-alcoholic drinks, and we think they'll be able to flex
a little muscle in getting Clearly Canadian some good shelf space.
As
we discussed at length in last week's Clearly newsletter, we expect most
of these distributors to be smaller, regional outfits. This was confirmed
today. The upside here for Clearly Canadian is straight-forward .....they'll
get the kind of attention they deserve.
This
distributor also already fronts for vitaminwater (R) and Fuze (R). Both
are in the same 'alternative' beverage group Clearly Canadian competes
in. We think this confirms Intrastate can and will handle Clearly's product
line appropriately, since they're already doing it for a similar product.
Here's
the full
press release, and don't forget - Clearly Canadian will be unveiling
a new product line on Thursday. We can't wait to see it, and taste it.
CEL-SCI
to Build Multikine Manufacturing Facility
Just
a few days after getting the green light from the FDA for Phase III trials
of Multikine, CEL-SCI Corporation (AMEX:
CVM) announced yesterday morning they've signed a letter of intent
to build a $12-$14 million facility which will be used to manufacture the
cancer-fighting drug.
We
think CEL-SCI's decision to commit a few million bucks to a manufacturing
facility speaks well of their confidence in the drug.....and specifically,
their expectation of ultimately getting it to the market.
It
could still be years until Multikine gets a final FDA approval, but CEL-SCI
seems to be planning for the best.....and they'll be able to hit the ground
running if it happens. In our view, the potential upside still far outweighs
any downside in owning a piece of this ground-breaking company.
Here's
the full
press release. Be sure to read it, as it adds some detail regarding
a cold-fill suite ....a feature that could be well utilized in manufacturing
other drugs as well.
Execute
Sports Rallies On Kawasaki News
Late
last week, Execute Sports (OTCBB:
EXCS) announced they had reached an agreement with Kawasaki Motors
Corporation to design and manufacture a line of JetSki products. The Lycra
rash guards, Neoprene boots, and Metalite top will be delivered in March.
You'll see them on shelves shortly after that.
You
may recall we had a very positive opinion of the company, but being so
new and unknown, the story could get very little traction within the investment
community. As such, we finally had to drop our official coverage in search
of better-responding ideas. Perhaps being linked to a name like Kawasaki
finally put Execute on the map.
We'd
say it's worth a little time to browse back through all of our blog entries
and newsletters regarding Execute Sports (click here). We kept pretty close
tabs on things, and we suspect today's interest is reflective of some of
the things we discussed as much as it is the Kawasaki news.
(and
here's the press release)
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TGR Group LLC has been paid a fee
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convertible into restricted shares of Clearly Canadian, by Level III Research,
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