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VOLUME
06: ISSUE 1
Feature:
Winning Calls of '05. Moving On to '06 Profits.
The
biggest sector holdover from 2005 will likely be the investor focus on
energy stocks. Let's review where we are in that sector and then we'll
pound the table a bit on some of the calls we made in 2005 that made--or
saved you--some significant coin.
Finally, we'll have a big finish
detailing our promise for 2006.
Our battle cry for 2006 is quite
simple: to bring the most interesting, focused trading ideas/strategies
that will make or save our readers a significant amount of money.
We've
Got Oil...
On September
2nd, when the rest of the world was looking for $70-plus a barrel
oil, post Katrina, we took the contrary view and called for price weakness
and a return to more rational levels for both oil and natural gas. Our
target was $56.50 and by late November/ December, the price had dropped
slightly below that level. On December
14th, we further quantified the weakness and suggested investors
use the Energy Select SPDR (AMEX:
XLE) as a proxy for a renewed rally once the index hit $50. On
December 27th, the XLE closed at $49.74.
So what do we do now?
The XLE slightly exceeded our $50
downside target. Since the year has been relatively warm so far, a stop
loss at our $48.50 red line would be prudent. On the other hand, and probably
more likely, when Ma Nature brings in the snow, this level could well be
a significant entry point to take advantage of a quick rise to $55 and
perhaps beyond.
Those 2006 March 50 call options,
which were $4.20 a contract back on December 14th have, as we suspected,
declined to under $3, making them more attractive. Might even want to look
a bit deeper in the money or at the longer-term calls if that suits your
view.
The link for the March 2006 XLE options
follows. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=XLE&m=2006-03
Scroll across the top for shorter or longer expiries. Be vigilant as both
the oil price, the XLE and its options as all can move quickly. We aren't
even at the worst part of winter yet and as we've said and noted before,
we're one cold snap away from a good rally in oil and natural gas. Stay
frosty...
Oh
yes, there's lots more...
On June
14th we alerted the readership to the coming biotech boom and noted
the turn on the Amex Biotech Index (AMEX:
^BTK) for a sustained rally. The index has subsequently moved to
680.91 by year-end for a run of over 25 percent. Contiguous to that call
we noted that the Biotech iShare (AMEX:
IBB) looked a good bet at $65.57. Closing year-end at $77.24, investors
have snapped a return of close to 20 percent.
On October
28th, we called for a tradeable rally in the housing sector with
the Housing Sector Index (AMEX:
^HGX) at 476. The index closed the year at 518.
Throughout the year we made frequent,
focused market calls regarding the NASDAQ, DOW and various sectors including
those previously mentioned as well as drugs, interest rates and special
situations such as Time Warner (NYSE:
TWX) and Merck (NYSE:
MRK). The latter was the pariah of Wall Street after the first
Vioxx trial. Again, on August
26th, we took a strong contrary view and suggested at $27 to begin
accumulating the shares. At a year-end price of just under $32, the almost
20 percent short-term return has been very pleasant for those who chose
to follow our rationale.
There
are many more examples of both the value and uniqueness of the opinions
and commentary found in the SmallCap Digest-- check out our 2005
archive.
For 2006 we will continue to bring
you great SmallCap names with both fundamental and technical opinions
detailing buy, sell and stop price levels; something we feel is unique
to our publication and puts it a cut way above our 'peers'. As well, we
will bring you frequent market calls; both for the major indices as well
as those sector specific coupled with ideas that you can use to take advantage
of our opinion--be it long, short or utilizing options.
And, as always, we will be scouring
the market to bring you more amazing names such as MicroMuse (NASDAQ:
MUSE) which doubled in less than a year, Informatica (NASDAQ:
INFA) up 50 percent-plus in the last year as well as excellent
trading opportunities afforded by the likes of Eden Energy (OTCBB:
EDNE) and MIV Therapeutics (OTCBB:
MIVT) among others--all of which we covered extensively and saw
their share prices frequently rise by significant multiples.
Every SmallCap article in 2006 will
be heavy on what we refer to as the 'Wow' factor. Whether a it's a new
trading name for your consideration, or a unique piece of economic, political
or educational news, or more of our focused market calls, we guarantee
to bring to readers' email boxes the most timely, interesting and profitable
commentary and opinion available anywhere.
Promise.
We
Value Your Feedback
Got comments, questions or suggestions?
Send 'em on over: Editor@smallcapnetwork.com
If you wish to send a written request
or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402
San Diego, CA 92130
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