Well, we have to give credit where it's due. While Tuesday was a bit of a ho-hum day for the overall market, Elite Opportunity subscribers that took John Monroe's advice yesterday are up pretty nicely thanks to a bullish response to earnings news from JP Morgan (JPM). That was John's favorite pick between it and rival bank Wells Fargo (WFC) in yesterday's edition of the EO, and sure enough, JPM jumped about 2% after Tuesday morning's solid earnings report. It would have been great for stock traders, but it was absolutely fantastic for options traders who like to apply leverage to their stock picks. I don't know if I've made this point before, so I'll make it now - although the EO service doesn't explicitly trade options (just for logistical reasons), it's well-suited for those of you who do like options trading. Even if not an official short-term pick, like I mentioned in yesterday's newsletter, John usually has a near-term trading opinion on some of the market's most active names. In any case, since he's on a roll, John dished out some more trading thoughts on Netflix (NFLX), SanDisk (SNDK) and Bank of America (BAC) today. All three will be posting last quarter's numbers on Wednesday morning, and he applied the same analytical process to them that allowed him to peg JP Morgan as today's top trading idea. I've got a feeling two of the three could be equally explosive winners, if not all three of them. Today was the second day in a row the Elite Opportunity passed out some trading ideas where earnings were a catalyst, and we're only about one week into an earnings season that lasts about six weeks. Though John Monroe didn't say it, I have to think he's going to have several more such earnings-driven suggestions before it's all said and done, IN ADDITION TO his regular long-term and short-term stock suggestions. So, if you're an options guy or gal, you may want to tap into the EO's collective brainpower before we get much further into earnings season. Every day you delay is a day you may be leaving money on the table. Here's the deal, or cut and paste this link to learn more: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Also, don't forget there's a 30-day money-back guarantee for the Elite Opportunity service so you can see what it's all about at absolutely no risk. Put John and his team to the test in what's been a tricky earnings season so far! A Mixed Economic Bag You may have already heard, but if not, last month's retail sales were up 0.9% overall, and grew 0.4% when taking automobiles out of the equation. We have to assume better weather and slightly higher gasoline prices had something to do with that. Well, no, actually we don't have to assume anything. Unlike most of the financial media, we can't just gloss over relevant details. Our chart below is our usual detailed look at total retail sales for several different stratifications of the data. Namely, we're trying to strip out the effects of low gasoline prices, and we want to weed out the volatility of automobile sales. Our graph not only does a pretty good job with that, but nothing offers context like a long-term chart, right? To that end, take a look. First and foremost, don't get too excited about the sudden jumps in retail spending last month for all four of our categorizations - we always get this kind of jump in March. Regardless, what we do see here on a year-over-year basis is that total spending was up DESPITE THE DIP IN GASOLINE SALES. Consumers ARE finally spending the money they're saving at the pump on other things. Cars and food services are getting a fair share of the slight improvement in overall spending. Honestly, last month's retail consumption isn't getting the attention it deserves. This is a fairly big victory for the economy. The only other major economic data today was the Bureau of Labor Statistics' producer price inflation information. Though it was up 0.2% last month on a core as well as a non-core basis, the annualized year-over-year rate of -0.8% overall and only +0.9% on a core (less food and energy) basis still suggests there's weak pricing pressure in the economic mix. This tepid inflation picture continues to give the Federal Reserve room to wait very patiently on a rate increase. As we pointed out last week though, the Fed seems strangely in a hurry to bump rates up anyway. Maybe Friday's consumer inflation figures will slow the Fed down. Takin' Care of Business Normally we'd devote a fair amount of time and space to talk about the market and what today's action likely means in the grand scheme of things. We're not going to do that today, though. We're going to devote just a little time to the overall market outlook because we've got a couple of other housekeeping items we have to get to in today's edition. Besides, it's not like there's a lot to tell you marketwise. Stocks are still caught in a narrowing range, and until we break out of those confines (in whatever direction we're going to go) there's not really a lot to say. So, with no further ado, here's the S&P 500. As we could have expected, it bounced off of the 20-day and 50-day moving average lines at 2082 but it didn't clear the hurdle at 2105. Until that floor or ceiling breaks, not much else really matters. For what it's worth, the VIX made a similar mirror image of the S&P 500's move, suggesting traders truly are on the fence here. The good news is, we know what to look for as we wait for the market to finally make a trade-worthy move. So what's the other business we need to take care of here? We've got three charts to show you, though only one of them explicitly calls for action right now. The other two are simply updates telling us we may want to mentally prepare for action soon. First (though not foremost), we're cancelling our bullishness on the airline industry via the Dow Jones Airline Index (DJUSAR). That uptrend has technically weakened to the point where it's snapped, so we're not going to be stubborn. We've still got four other industry-based calls on the table that are just fine, so we don't have to keep this one and go down with a sinking ship. That being said, the reason we're pulling the plug on our airlines bullishness is largely because of the shape of one of our other focus charts today... crude oil. It's still not firmly above the line in the sand we drew at $54.70 last week, but it's doing one heck of a job at getting and staying above that mark. A few more days of this and we'll have to make a bullish call. Just for the record though, I think I'd still rather see one more lull - maybe down to the $50 level - before staging this key breakout, as that would likely burn off any lingering overhang. Of course, the oil market couldn't care less what I want. Last but not least, today's sharp dive from the U.S. Dollar Index may end up being the makings for a significant double top. If we don't test the 100.30 level again but we DO break under the $96.40 level, it may well jump-start a long overdue pullback from the dollar. I just wanted to put it on your radar now, so we have a mental plan in place if and when the time comes. And yes, a big part of the reason (though not the only reason) oil is firming up now may stem from the dollar's developing weakness. That's all for today, but again, don't forget to sign up for the Elite Opportunity service if you haven't already. It's as potent for option traders as it is for stock traders, and as we head into the heart of earnings season it's the kind of help that can make a huge difference in your portfolio's bottom line. Go here to learn more, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/