Whether
you're a veteran investor, or simply tired of being jerked around by
volatile oil prices, odds are by now you've heard the name T. Boone
Pickens. He's the guy on television commercials encouraging the U.S.
to break free of its dependence on oil by embracing alternative forms
of energy. No
big deal, except for one thing ...folks are starting to listen.
While we'd love nothing more than to see the world embrace the idea
of being 'green', our more immediate interest is in making some money
with this paradigm shift.
As
it just so happens, there's a fairly easy way to possibly do that. Literally,
it's
the T. Boone Pickens way.
For
those of you who know T. Boone Pickens' background, you'll appreciate the
irony that he made most of his fortune as an oilman. Now he's going
in the opposite direction. That's why his interest in alternative
energy carries a little weight with me...it's not like he's just some guy
off the street who doesn't understand the reality of the energy industry.
Of
course, what carries the most weight with me is his money,
and what he's doing with it.
Pickens
is the founder and primary funder of Clean
Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE)...the stock pick we're suggesting
today. He currently owns about 37% of the company, and has poured hundreds
of millions of his own dollars into the corporation. So, owning some
CLNE is indeed like investing side-by-side with a guy who (1) puts his
money where his mouth is, and (2) has a better grasp of the industry than
most of us ever could.
Company
Overview
Pickens
has his hand in several under-developed and non-revenue-bearing
clean energy projects, but Clean Energy Fuels isn't one of them.
Clean
Energy Fuels has a viable business model, real revenue, and a growing top
line.
Company
Name:
Clean
Energy Fuels
Stock
Symbol :
CLNE
Coverage
Initiated:
Oct.
22nd, 2008
Current
Price:
$10.99
Avg.
Volume (3 mo.):
972,033
52
Week Range:
$8.06
- $19.95
Market
Cap:
$479.9
M
Target:
$19.95
Stop:
$8.83
In
a nutshell, Clean Energy Fuels is a natural gas filling station.
The way most people go to a gas pump and fill up their car with a tank
of gas, Clean Energy's customers fill up their vehicles with natural gas
(compressed and liquefied). Most of their customers are 'fleet'
customers like taxis, public busses, and municipal vehicles. The majority
of the stations are in the southwest or northeast.
Just
because the stations aren't everywhere, don't assume natural gas isn't
a big business yet. Clean Energy Fuels pulled in revenues of $117 million
last year ...a 28% increase of 2006's top line, which was 16%
better than 2005's total.
CLNE's
books are clean too. They've got $249 million in total assets, $83 million
of which is cash. There's no long-term debt...just $16 million in near-term
obligations. The point is, the company's not strapped, and can stick around
for the long haul without needing to borrow anything.
And
what about the bottom line? That may be the sweetest/stealthiest piece
of the whole pie.
The
company was not profitable last fiscal year, which means it's off
a lot of investors' radars right now. However, it's been inching closer
and closer to profitability again. We expect a move back into the black
next year, which could draw a lot of new investor interest. That's why
you'd want in now - to let other investors pile in after
you do so you can benefit from their clamoring.
We've
got more details on this potential move to profitability below.
The
Specifics
In
many ways, Pickens is to energy investing what Warren Buffett
is to value investing. That's not a sales pitch - just a fair observation.
With that in mind, I think it's also important to point out that Buffett's
favorite ally is time; Buffett knows it can take a while for a stock
to become properly valued.
So,
we're
viewing CLNE as a longer-term idea. A holding period of a year
or more may be needed to really capture its full potential. That potential,
however, is well above the average stock's potential for
the same time frame.
Nevertheless,
since the market isn't always concerned with the calendar, we'll at least
add a target price and stop for now.
A stop
of
$8.83 looks like a good line in the sand - that was essentially where the
stock found support a couple of weeks ago. As for a target, let's
use $19.95, since it seems to be a significant resistance level. CLNE was
actually there in September, essentially matching the high from October
of last year. Hitting that target would mean almost a double from the current
price of $10.99.
Our
optimistic outlook isn't based strictly on an oversold chart though. At
least eight analysts agree Clean Energy's rate of revenue and earnings
progress is going to accelerate in 2009. The average top line estimate
for fiscal (and calendar) 2009 is $211 million, with anticipated profits
of 28 cents per share. At 28 cents per share, the forward-looking P/E is
39.3. The bigger the company gets, the lower the P/E goes.
You
could make the argument that those estimates don't yet reflect the likelihood
of a recession. However, we'd argue this particular enterprise isn't greatly
affected by a recession. In fact, it may thrive in a tight economy.
Won't
cheap oil hurt natural gas demand? Doubtful. The pain of record-breaking
oil prices has already inspired the move to alternatives, even though crude's
been cut in half over the last few weeks. The natural gas era is now rolling
along on its own.
Between
a technically-oversold chart, a bullish expectation when it comes to company
fundamentals, and a growing degree of social support for the 'green' energy
solution provided by Clean Energy Fuels (from deep-pocketed T. Boone
Pickens no less), we simply see a lot of upside for CLNE at its current
level.