Dow Jones 9692.83 +68.67 11:47 am PST, November 19, 2003  NASDAQ 1899.03 +17.28 For info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com S & P 500 1042.18 +8.03 To be removed, please click here Russell 2000 527.07 +5.39 VOLUME 03: ISSUE 74  Feature: Save the Ozone: Sell Your Fuel Cell Stocks. I have never bought, nor am I ever likely to buy, a fuel cell technology stock. And I'm thinking, neither should you. As a matter of fact, if you own any, consider selling them. Buy something else.  And if you bought the shares because of your environmental conscience, you should consider unloading as well.  There's an old joke --the fact that's it's old should tell you something; "Fuel cells are the technology of the future and always will be".  As a concept there is nothing wrong with fuel cells. But getting there may be more environmentally unfriendly, wealth destroying and, if you're over forty, an eventuality that you might not see in your lifetime. Why would you invest in something with those caveats?  Investors should also understand the fluid timeline affecting any profit hopes and, to that end,what's entailed in producing the 'fuel' critical to the cell's viability. Lot's more companies in this than I thought Ballard Power (NASDAQ: BLDP), is the poster stock for more than 1000 companies working on fuel cell technology. I believe that it has never made a dime in earnings. And there is no indication that the large annual per-share losses are going to abate any time soon. The shares have been sputtering between $10-$14 for more than a year as the faithful continue to hold positions or buy into the dream. It's time to wake up and move the money elsewhere, if you haven't already. The main plank in the seemingly endless fuel cell dance is the benign effect these gadgets will have on the environment. It's true. A fuel cell vehicle would be just about as green as they come--whenever it comes--on a commercial scale. Present estimates are all over the temporal map--from five years to fifty years. The problem is not the fuel cell itself, but producing the hydrogen that runs it. By the way, Iceland--that engine of global commerce-- hopes to have a 'hydrogen society' by 2040. But I digress... I'm willing to bet that you didn't know this.... At the moment, hydrogen can only be extracted at reasonable cost from hydrocarbon sources such as natural gas, methane, gasoline and other non-renewable fossil fuels. Malcolm Weiss, a researcher with MIT's Laboratory for Energy and Environment states in a report: "Ignoring the emissions and energy use involved in making and delivering the fuel and manufacturing the vehicle gives a misleading impression." MIT delivered this study a scant month after President Bush, last year, committed $1.2 billion over five years--hardly a huge amount-- exclusively to automotive fuel cell research. The MIT study also went on to state that the future of the technology lies in the ability to figure out how to cheaply separate hydrogen from water. On this, Weiss states: "If we learn how to do it, I think that's absolutely wonderful, but I wouldn't hold my breath." The study further states that even with aggressive research, production of a hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle would not be better than a diesel hybrid in terms of total energy use and greenhouse gas emissions --at least, not before 2020. So where does that leave investors? With a twenty year-plus time horizon at best or, a bet on a breakthrough--soon-- in hydrogen extraction technology. As the MIT man said, don't hold your breath. Even the medium term--10-20 years--future for enviro-friendly cars isn't in fuel cell technology. It's in Hybrid vehicles (electric and gas/diesel) such as the Toyota Prius, Honda Insight and a host of other vehicles that will debut over the next couple of years.  Hybrids, not fuel cell cars, are the way. By 2005, nearly a quarter million Hybrids are expected to be sold in the US. By 2007 there will be more than a dozen model offerings available, including SUV's. By 2020--the realistic target for fuel cell models--the die will already have been cast in favor of Hybrids or a derivation thereof. Investors should think more about where the technology will be for the already commercially viable Hybrids, which have at least a 10-15 year lead over the dream of fuel cell jalopies. Fuel cell companies --such as Ballard--do actually make some other fuel cell products. Ballard's Air Gen 1000-watt fuel cell generator for instance, which sells for $6000, is powered by hydrogen canisters. By way of comparison, a 5000-watt Honda Generator can be converted from gasoline to cleaner burning natural gas and there is also a diesel model. Cost? About $2000 bucks or one-third of the AirGen with five times the power. Another, and scary, wrinkle. According to researchers at CAL Tech, leakage from eventual sources of Hydrogen--pipelines, power plants, and fuel cells in cars--would not be ozone friendly. When released skyward, hydrogen has atmospheric issues with the ozone layer. Lighter than air and all that. Rogue hydrogen molecules could well serve to impede the ozone layer from repairing itself. Swell. Remember now outlawed CFC's which are now known to be responsible for ozone holes? It was years before we figured that one out. And carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels was not classed as a principal additive to greenhouse gases until recently. Hydrogen fuel cells may well be the hope for the future. But you should know that environmental problems exist that are glossed over by the industry and the Bush administration. What can't be dismissed is the fact that for the foreseeable future the whole sector will remain unprofitable, hydrogen extraction won't be green and any products available will remain ridiculously expensive. Sound like a sector you'd want to bet the farm on? Not me.  Or my green.   Need another reason to Sign up for your FREE Preferred Membership? Over the past year, we've brought you 13 Trading Alerts. If you had invested $1000 in each one, your $13,000 investment would have grown to $23070, if you had sold, say, Friday November 7th, to pick a day. That's a 78 percent return in a less than a year. The best? Obviously, Cel-Sci. The worst? ThinkPath. If we strip those two out--the highest and lowest returns--the return on your $11,000 investment would have been a very respectable 51 percent. Not too shabby. By comparison, the S&P index has returned about 20 percent over the last year. The NASDAQ--to which we also alerted you at the low in March 2003--has returned around 40 percent in the same period. The NASDAQ Tracker (NASDAQ: QQQ) did slightly better than its benchmark having risen 45 percent. Oh yes, we told you about that one, too at $24 in February 2003. Now it's $35. And we're only looking at Trading Alerts. I suspect if we included all of our Company Profiles (check our Track Record), the numbers would likely have been even better. The best is yet to come. Sign up NOW! Joining our NEW Preferred Member Program is easy and simple. Just follow this quick two-step process: Opt-in your email address, then, make sure and confirm the request for confirmation you will receive in your inbox. That's it! You'll automatically be in position to start receiving these new special features available only to Preferred Members! To subscribe to the preferred member list, simply click here. 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