Stratos
Renewables' Intelligent Ethanol Plan
We
mentioned a few days ago we had an exciting small cap stock idea on the
way. Well, today's the day we're revealing an idea we believe may provide
significant returns to investors over the next twelve months. This Company
is in the development stage of doing something very few other ethanol-oriented
companies have, which is produce ethanol in a manner that's cost effective,
energy-efficient, and more than anything else, profitable. That's
everything an investor could ask for in the alternative energy space, which
we all know should garner tremendous attention in coming months with the
new administration taking office soon.
Here's
the deal ... ethanol itself isn't a bad idea; it's actually a great
idea. The industry's just been so twisted here in the United States
(by politics and misdirected technologies) it's very difficult for
anyone - except a handful of blenders who receive subsidies - to
make any money in the business. Worse, there's not a whole lot of energy
gained by using corn to make ethanol.
The
solution is simple - produce ethanol outside of the United States,
with something besides corn. The political problem is negated altogether
that way, and the creation of ethanol is considerably more efficient when
a plant other than corn is used. Best of all, the company we have in mind
not only has plans to do everything we just described, but a geographical
quirk means it would be impossible for a competitor to copycat their operation.
We
suggest you put Stratos Renewables Corporation (OTCBB: SRNW) on
your primary watchlist today. In our opinion, a solid execution of their
near-term growth plan could jump-start a great deal of fiscal success for
the Company. Some of the key reasons for our strong interest follow.
Overview
Based
in Peru, Stratos is a development-stage sugarcane ethanol producer.
There's a major difference between Stratos and other ethanol companies
though. Stratos' profit margins should be huge, partly because they'll
own the whole operation from start to finish, and partly because
government subsidies and/or restrictive import tariffs aren't getting
in the way of doing business.
Stratos
is the biggest land controller in Peru. They've signed a 99 year lease
on 24,000 hectares of prime farm land close to the coast, and they're in
talks to add another 24,000 hectares in the very near future. That much
land can grow enough sugarcane in a year to produce up to 180 million gallons
of ethanol.
And
yes, there's more than enough of an ethanol market to find customers, especially
given that Stratos' ethanol costs about 40% less to make and ship to the
United States than it does to make it here at home. Just for perspective,
the Unites States consumed more than 6 billion gallons of ethanol last
year. By 2012, the world will need more than 12 billion gallons per year.
By 2020, it's estimated the world will be consuming 50 billion gallons
of ethanol per year.
In
other words, the market's plenty big enough for Stratos' future operation
to be lucrative for its investors.
Competitive
Advantages
Stratos
Renewables is getting positioned for fast and long-lasting growth, and
could prove to be a major disruption to the current ethanol industry leaders.
Moreover, there's practically nothing their competition can do about it
- two of the four advantages are solely based on geography.
Geography
Brazil
is well-known for its positive impact on the sugarcane ethanol industry.
The plant simply grows well there, and they can produce a lot of ethanol
because of it. In fact, 60% of the country's automobile energy needs are
met with ethanol, and ethanol is 35% to 40% cheaper than gasoline in Brazil.
You'd
think Peru, being just west of Brazil and in the same climate, would
be able to grow sugarcane at about the same pace Brazil does. As it turns
out though, the two countries experience very different weather patterns.
Brazil has a rainy season that effectively allows sugarcane to only grow
about six months out of the year. Peru has no rainy season, and can
grow sugarcane year-round.
In
short, Peru can annually produce 144 tons of sugarcane per hectare;
Brazil can only produce about 90 tons. Thus, on a square-footage basis,
more ethanol (and therefore more money) can be produced from Peru's higher
yields.
Propinquity
to Ports
Being
close to a seaport may not seem like a big deal ... until you need to
export something by boat. Then all of a sudden the shipping expenses
can really start to add up. Fortunately for Stratos, all that land they're
farming is very close to Eten Port, which will be used to load the tankers
carrying ethanol to their customers.
It's
not just easy access to the ocean that makes life easier for Stratos though.
The land they're going to be farming is also expected to be easy to irrigate,
and the long range plan is to set up multiple ethanol production plants
in locations that will be very accessible to any of those 48,000 hectares.
Export-Friendly
Relations With the U.S.
You
know what it costs Brazil in import duty to sell a gallon of ethanol in
the United States? It's 54 cents. It costs Brazil $1.18 to make the stuff,
and roughly another 15 cents to ship it. Assuming they pass all that cost
on to the buyer, they'd have to charge $1.87 per gallon to break even.
The problem is, American producers can make the stuff and sell it for $1.70
a gallon. So, Brazil is effectively shut off from the American market.
You
know what Stratos expects their cost to be to make a gallon of ethanol
in Peru? About 85 cents. You know what the U.S. charges Peru as an import
duty on ethanol? Zilch. Nada. That's right - Peru's free trade with
the U.S. makes it easy to export ethanol profitably, which brings us to
the fourth and final competitive edge...
Pricing/Cost
Power
The
fourth key advantage is actually the culmination of the first three ...
incredibly
low costs of production, which could give Stratos a very wide margin.
This may potentially be used to give the company a pricing edge, but frankly,
they don't need it -the going rate for ethanol is the going rate, no matter
what the underlying cost is.
Between
the 85 cents it costs Stratos to make ethanol and the 15 cents it costs
them to ship it to the United States, their total cost is $1.00. However,
ethanol is currently priced at $1.70, and is apt to move higher before
lower. That 70 cent difference would be pure gross profit for the company,
and ultimately, the company's shareholders.
Growth
Opportunity
With
61 million common shares outstanding, and a current share price of roughly
80 cents, the company's market cap weighs in at about $50 million, plus
a few preferred shares.
The
company anticipates another round of financing before the end of this year.
That money will be used to complete a still that will go into ethanol production
in the second quarter of the coming year. This facility will be capable
of producing 45 million gallons of ethanol per year ... about $76 million
worth.
Once
that still is up and running, Stratos is going to raise more money to add
additional stills of the same size - 45 million gallons per year. By the
end of 2014, their capacity should be 180 million gallons per year, which
will fully utilize 48,000 hectares of farmland.
More
important to investors, assuming ethanol remains priced at $1.70 or higher,
this will translate into at least $300 million of revenue. And remember,
Stratos' cost per gallon is expected to be $1.00 no matter how expensive
ethanol gets. The gross margin on 180 million gallons would be at $120
million, if not more. Higher ethanol prices would mean even more profitability.
This
is a relatively new stock issue, and as such, volume may seem light so
far. We attribute that not to a lack of liquidity, but entirely
to the newness of this opportunity to American investors. As the
story proliferates, we expect trading activity to grow. And, as the company
progresses through it growth plan, the stock should also come along for
the ride.
Stratos'
full potential will likely be realized by long-term holders, but we can
foresee multiple entry and profit-taking opportunities between now and
then. For those speculators who choose to enter into a position now, we
suggest an entry level of under 85 cents. A stop of should be adequate,
and it's possible we could see the stock move to as high as $1.70 as the
idea is made known to the market. So, you may want to use that as your
short-term target.
Our
primary opinion of Stratos' potential is as a long-term one investment
though, so we'll hold off on any official trading specifics for the
time being. As the company works through the business plan and gets closer
to the end-goal, we'll be able to develop detailed target parameters.
No
matter which camp you're in though, we recommend you at least put SRNW
on your trading radar. This stock may end up being one of your bigger winners
for 2009.