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Four Must-Have Industries For the Coming Tepid Market
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Whether you're bullish or bearish on the market right now, it would be hard to deny that we're back in a stock-picker's market. In fact, your choices at this point may be to play that game, or play no game at all. With that in mind, we've pin-pointed four specific areas that should help you find the market's best current long opportunities.  After that, we'll highlight the best and most important recent comments from the community. On the menu for this week are looks at VirnetX Holding (VHC), Wireless Ronin Technologies (RNIN), Positron (POSC), American States Water (AWR), and ActiveCare (ACAR).    Four 'Must Haves' For the Coming Tepid Market Assuming today's wave of option and future expirations doesn't wreak havoc with the market between now and the closing bell (and it usually doesn't at this late stage of the game), stocks are on track to make their second weekly gain.  Is this a sign of new momentum, or just a bear market rally and a setup for a bigger tumble later? May I write-in a third option of what's looming.... tepidness?  I know, I know... it's a bit of a non-answer. That is the likely outcome for the next few months, at least from where I sit. Don't worry though - I've got a solution for the problem. (It's at the bottom of this column, if you just want to skip the 'why'.)  Stuck In The Middle With You  With the market trapped between what governments will do to deal with growing global debt (or the fear of it anyway), and the fact that earnings are still intact (mostly) even without the benefit of the stimulus jolt, equities are most likely locked into a narrow path until investors figure out if the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train. It could take months to know for sure though, and stocks are apt to be handcuffed for a while - perhaps months - as a result.  It's not time to head to the sidelines, however. It's just time to change the game plan.  Birds of a Feather  In most of his books, famed investor and IBD founder William O'Neil suggests that a stock's sector is responsible for 30% to 50% of an individual stock's price action. In other words, picking the right sector is half the battle. Or, conversely, even picking a great stock in a falling sector is a setup for disappointment. Birds of a feather really do flock together.  In my experience, it's true, which is why I've spent a little more time focusing on sectors in 2010 than I did in 2009.  In 2009, the rising tide was lifting all boats. In 2010, we're starting to see a divergence among sectors. In fact, we've started to clearly see new leaders emerge just since the May 20th blowout.... and the differences in returns even since then aren't chump change. Moreover, the differences in returns should only widen as time moves on.  So what are the market's next great sectors and industries? Glad you asked.  Method to the Madness  Anybody who's been reading the SCN newsletter for a while will know I'm a sector rotation guy, largely aligning myself with O'Neil's philosophy. I literally look for emerging leaders on an industry-by-industry-basis every day.... and notice I said 'emerging'.  By far, the biggest mistake I see rookie investors make with strategies designed to capture relative sector strength is tapping into a trend that's been in place for months, if not years. The problem is, those trends are often nearing the end of their trade-worthiness - near their tops. In fact, most industries seem to be guilty of this condition right now.  To 'take it up a notch' and figure out where the new opportunities are, I apply technical analysis to the industry charts that are starting to not only lead, but also accelerate. Isn't this a stunning amount of work? Oh yeah, but it's worth it because it allows me to identify budding sectors, industries, and ultimately, individual stocks that none of us would have come up with just relying on news for ideas.  With that all being said, here are my top four sector/industry picks for the next few months; none of them are guilty of being overbought in the bigger picture.  Sector and Industry Picks Wireless  You can't quite tell it on the nearby month chart, but the S&P 1500 Wireless Index broke above a key resistance line last week, and has continued to move above it. The move doesn't come as a big surprise; I've been talking about this wedge-shaped setup for weeks.  And it's not just chatter either - I actually traded a couple of wireless names in my public portfolio. So far, MetroPCS (PCS) has paid off nicely, while UTStarcom, Inc. (UTSI) has been lackluster. I've still got high expectations for both though, as well as the whole group.  Biotech  You don't own biotech stocks - you just rent them. If you truly owned them, you'd be seasick over the last four years, as you would have ridden out a lot of ups and downs (even more than the broad market's), but made no net progress. The nearby chart makes that pretty clear, as the S&P 1500 Biotech Index has been range bounce since 2007. As it just so happens, the index is now pushing off the lower end of that range... a window of opportunity before the bulk of the return trip is completed.  Refiners (Oil/Gas)  I can't help but wonder if the energy sector - and the refiners in particular - would have finally broken out of their wedge shape that had been forming since late 2008 if the BP mess in the gulf hadn't happened.  The good news is, even BP's implosion didn't break the support side of the edge; it just pushed the S&P 1500 Refiner Index back to it, where it appears to have regrouped. A breakout is still within reach, and I've got a feeling it will materialize. And when it does, boy there's a ton of room to run here.  Hypermarkets  With the exception of the 2008 spike, the S&P 1500 Hypermarkets Index (that's the Wal-Marts, Targets, and Costcos of the world) has been framed by rising - and accelerating - support and resistance lines. And as you can see, the index also just pushed off the lower edge of that zone, and appears to be gearing up for a leg higher. So, we've got the short-term as well as the long-term trend working in our favor here.  Bottom Line  That's it... four of the most trade-worthy trends I see brewing right now in an market environment that doesn't really suggest a lot of bullish fireworks are on the way. I'll update these big trends as needed, but I don't see these themes wavering anytime soon.  Helping you get more out of the market,  James Brumley  Editor - SmallCap Network Newsletter    From the Community Needs of Growing Elderly Population Could Net Substantial Profits for ActiveCare M.E. Garza was lucky enough to score an interview with ActiveCare Inc. (OTC:ACAR) VP Bryan Dalton, and was nice enough to share a transcript with the Small Cap Network. Here's a detailed look at the opportunity, straight from the company itself.  Positron Seeing Substantial Accumulation, May Pierce Resistance Levels Positron Corporation (OTC:POSC) has been all over the news lately, which can be good and bad, depending on the volume of the hype surrounding and stemming from that coverage. Here's an honest and complete assessment of the stock.  Believe It Or Not, New Leaders...Outlooks for AWR, SWX, and EE The next few months aren't apt to look like the last few, according to James Brumley, and some strange and surprising new leaders are emerging. American States Water Company (NYSE:AWR) is one of them; here's why the future looks brighter than the past.  Innovation; Take It or Leave It: RNIN, UPI, DGII Dennis Askew doesn't mince words here, deeming Wireless Ronin Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:RNIN) a buy. His look at the company explains why though.... Ronin actually develops practical applications for their technology, rather than developing technologies without purpose. Take a look.  Simmering Now, Boiling Soon - Outlooks for BUGS, CML, and VHC In the short run it seems hot and cold. In the long-term though, VirnetX Holding Corporation (AMEX:VHC) shares have far more going for them than most people realize. Best of all, VHC shares actually move in pretty predictable patterns.        We Value Your Feedback Got comments, questions or suggestions? 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