What's so good about a decisively bearish day? If it coincides with a flurry of pessimistic opinion and blowout-type of trading activity, it may also mean the end of the bearish trend - the proverbial nail in the coffin. The tough part, however, about trying to spot a bottom-making, blowout day is distinguishing them from just another run-of-the-mill selloff day.
We've got some specific reasons why Thursday's action may well have been the former variety, and therefore, an intermediate-term bottom.
First though, let's cue up some of the top comments and ideas from the community this week. They're about ITT Educational Services (ESI), Resource Capital (RSO), Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Cardtronics (CATM), and Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC).
Stocks In Focus
A Trend, or Just Volatility? Perspective on CSC, ROST, and RPRX
If you think Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE:CSC) is just in 'a little trouble', you may want to read James Brumley's review of the chart.... there's no 'little' to it - CSC is in a bigger-picture breakdown. Find out exactly what's wrong, and why, with Computer Sciences shares.
Three Undervalued Plays in Tech and Pharma: LLNW, AMCC, BIOS
If you like momentum, you're going to love Applied Micro Circuits Corporation (NASDAQ:AMCC). Dennis Askew has the lowdown on the micro processor manufacturer; let's just say you'll like the numbers. Applied Micro Circuits is sitting pretty right now, making the smallest chips in one of the fastest growing segments of the economic recovery.
Making Sense Out Of This Mess - Looks at RSO, CSIQ, and LCC
If you like aggressive, short-term speculation, then Resource Capital Corp. (NYSE:RSO) may be for you. After a three-day freefall, this small cap may be primed for an equally brisk bounce. The outlook isn't just an arbitrary coin toss though.... there's a reason for the bullishness.
How Long Can CNTF, PERY, and ESI Fight the Tide?
Not many stocks were up on Thursday, and even fewer groups. So, the fact that education stocks like ITT Educational Services, Inc. (NYSE:ESI) were up - as a group - speaks volumes. And, they all may well have deserved some bullishness, given the persistent joblessness. ITT Educational Services just happens to be the pick of the litter.
Why These Stocks Hold Onto Shareholders: CATM, BIOD, DRRX
It always seems to be the hiding-in-plain-sight businesses that end up being the most fruitful investments. Cardtronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CATM) isn't likely to be an exception, according to Dennis Askew. He dug up this obscure gem on Thursday, deeming Cardtronics a six-month 'buy'. Be sure to get the full scoop.
Hurts So Good
I'm sending today's edition out much earlier than I normally would for one simple reason.... I want to give everyone plenty of time and opportunity to receive it, read it, and consider it - I think it's of paramount importance.
Why's that? Because I think Thursday may have been the market bottom. And to be clear, I don't mean 'a' bottom.... I mean 'the' bottom - the low that should remain the low for at least a few weeks.
Of course, I can't guarantee that; by the time you get this the market may be in the red yet again. However, I have a very specific (and very reliable) set of reasons for thinking the way I do. If I'm wrong, so be it. I'll just pull the plug early on any bullish trades I step into. If I'm right though - as the odds suggest - then the looming bounce will not be something you can afford to miss.
Curious yet? Great. Let's dig in.
Where I'm Coming From
I want to go through my checklist of hints one at a time, and briefly describe the 'why' for each one. First though, I want to set the tone.
I'm a contrarian. That just means I generally bet against the crowd, as I know the crowd is usually wrong when they feel they're the most right. Yesterday, the crowd felt it was time to be wildly bearish. And when I say bearish, I mean BEARish - as in more pessimistic and technically alarming than we've seen in months, if not years (and that's not an exaggeration).
How is that bullish? Because investors don't turn bearish and then wait to sell stocks later - that's a mental conflict. Rather, they sell stocks, and then turn bearish to validate their action. So when the entire market chorus is singing 'sell stocks' as loudly as they were yesterday, it's not because they're going to dump their equities.... it's because they already have.
Funny thing though - if everyone who was going to sell 'em already has sold 'em, who's left to continue to drive stock prices lower with lots of supply? The answer is, nobody.... only the buyers are left. Thus, you have contrarianism.
As crazy as it sounds, it works far more often than not.
Now, as far as why I'm now an intermediate-term bull, it's because we saw fear (bearishness) levels reach multi-month and multi-year highs Thursday for three key indications.
CBOE Volatility Index
The CBOE Volatility Index - or VIX - not only reached a new 52-week high of 46.37 yesterday, the close of 45.79 was also a multi-month high close. While one could argue that this is just part of an upward trend for the VIX (and therefore a downward trend for the market), even by liberal VIX standards this recent move is well beyond the norm. Factor in how the VIX left behind its second gap within the last two weeks, and its tough to see how it could reach any higher at this point.
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
Like the VIX, the ISE Put/Call Ratio (equity only) is a fear gauge that measures sentiment by comparing the number of bearish puts traded to the number of bullish calls traded on the same day. As such, it indicates how defensively traders are positioning themselves.
Yesterday's reading of 100 for the ISE Put/Call Ratio is the lowest reading we've seen since June of last year, telling us option traders haven't been thinking this pessimistically in nearly a year.
You should also note that June 18th, 2009 low from the ISE Call/Put Ratio occurred about a month before the term-bottom on July 10th of 2009, but it did indeed set up that nice 12% July-August rally. In fact, that was the bottom that carried the market all the way though the January top. Prior to that, extreme lows from the ISE Call/Put Ratio have occurred right at or right before (within three days) of major bottoms - a tendency you don't want to bet against.
Not Enough Volume
This one's a little ambiguous, though not completely qualitative.
While one wouldn't expect to see the kind of trading volume induced during the 'flash crash' from 7th, we didn't even see the same selling volume we saw from the market with Tuesday's tepid selloff.... and that wasn't even a particularly alarming day in terms of volume. What this tells us is that even though the pullback was noisy, there wasn't a great deal of participation in it.
This goes back to the 'sell-first-then-think-bearish' idea discussed above. Most investors who were going to sell may have already done so; the remainder are riding it out.
By the way, if you want to see a longer-term, full-screen image of the chart above, click here.
Last Thoughts
These aren't the only contrarian hints I've got on the table right now, but none of the others are any different - they all suggest the bears are exhausted, and yesterday was the grand finale of whatever they had in store for us.
Like I mentioned, I'm old and wise enough now to never set anything in stone - I could be wrong; more bad news from Europe could torpedo any recovery hopes. The charts above, however, are just too lopsided to ignore; their hints are highly reliable rebound indications that I'm willing to side with for now. The potential reward is way bigger than the potential risk. Just bear in mind it may take a day or two (or, perhaps only an hour or two) to really know which side of the fence the market is on now.
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