News Details – Smallcapnetwork
The Duck Dynasty Effect: Who's On the Receiving End?
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

No fanfare today, as we've got too much to get through. Let's just dig in, starting with a glimpse of what's going to end up being the most important economic news for the week. Employment Numbers as Mediocre as Expected, So Far Although the week's biggest economic news - the unemployment rate and the Department of Labor's payroll tally - won't be out until tomorrow, we got a pretty good glimpse of what to expect with Thursday's news. Payroll processor ADP said 176,000 jobs were created in August. That's a little shy of expectations (of 180,000) and a little more shy of July's 198,000 new jobs. More than anything though, it's well shy of the 400,000 new payrolls we need to add every month to get the economy rolling in a really bullish way. Of course, the number's been stuck in the 150K/200K range for the better part of the last several months, so it's not like today's news really shook things up. Honestly, I wouldn't worry about the ADP number that much, especially considering how closely it jives with the 177,000 new jobs the Department of Labor is expected to report on Friday. That shouldn't be enough to budge the unemployment rate any lower than its current reading of 7.4%. The bottom line is, the employment situation continues to look mediocre. We don't see any surprises changing that tomorrow. We'll have all the employment trend charts updated for you then; the nearby chart is just as of last month's report. The only other item of real economic interest also came today ... factory orders. They fell 2.4% in July (which, believe it or not, wasn't as bad as expected). Had it just been the 2.4% drop in factory orders, I might be willing to overlook it and not worry about it. It's not just weakness in Thursday's factory orders though. Last week we learned durable orders fell 7.3% in July, and fell 0.6% even when taking volatile transportation orders out of the mix. There were some encouraging signs too, but not enough to fully trump all the red flags. We're just sayin'. We'll continue to keep a vigilant eye on all this data for you, but be sure to check out tomorrow's newsletter when we look at the whole employment picture. The Best of the Best Congratulations are in order. Remember DoMan? He's the guy (or girl?) who's been working his way up the stock-trading performance charts at the SmallCap Network site. Yeah, well, as of today's he's now the one-month leader. He's also holding the #4 spot on the three-month leader board. He didn't just happen to luckily drift that direction either. He's continued to actively trade his way there, adding four new picks this week alone... one of which is already up 19%. Thing is, that's just one of several good-sized winners he's found. Again, if you're looking for more ideas, DoMan may be worth following at the site. Don't know that 'following' means? It just means his stuff (picks, articles, or whatever) are put front and center with the rest of the regular headlines you see whenever you visit the site and log in. All you have to do is go to a member's home page and choose 'Follow' in the left-hand column. I've mentioned before I know many of you guys are great traders, and how you could prove it to others by sharing your picks at the site. What a great way to establish yourself as a stock-picking guru. Gotta be honest though... the longer you wait to get started, the bigger the lead DoMan's going to get on everyone else. Get picking today! Speaking of the website, I also wanted to point you to a couple of the more compelling articles the SCN regular contributors have posted this week. I don't know how many of you have seen it or heard of it, but I'm willing to bet most of you are at least somewhat familiar A&E's surprise hit television show Duck Dynasty. Personally, I watched about 90 seconds of one episode and have yet to watch it again (and probably won't)... it's just too much silliness for me. I'd never deny, however, the show is loved by millions and has started a ripple effect that's now reaching and spurring growth in other industries. What industries? Hunting for one. Between the TV program and fears of stricter gun control laws, sporting goods stores are on the beneficial end of a renewed cultural movement. John Udovich handicapped the most popular sporting goods names in his article "Cabela's Betting on the Duck Dynasty and Gun Control." If you want a quick look at all of them to get your due diligence started, his take is worth a look. The other commentary I strongly recommend reading is James Brumley's highly actionable assessment of Venaxis (APPY). If it rings a bell, it may be because Brumley pointed it out as a budding bullish idea on Tuesday. It cleared a major hurdle the next day, and that was it - off to the races. Don't worry though... there's still plenty of upside left to tap into. His chart explains everything. Yeah, But How Much Gas is Left In the Tank? Three bullish days in a row? While I have my doubts about September being a winner for the market, like we've always said, you should trade based on what the market is doing rather than what you think it should be doing. Personally, I think it should be falling, but I can't deny the buyers are stirring the pot here. On the flipside... To give credit where it's due, I think John Monroe over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity said it best in today's newsletter when he wrote: As it stands right now, the indexes will basically look for any excuse to make a big move fairly soon. Maybe the move will be blamed on what our Administration does in Syria but I don't suspect any move will be based on any sort of major economic news development. It's been pretty much the same data over and over now, quarter after quarter. Regardless of what the media attributes the next big market move to, the longer-term landscape of the markets will more than likely hang their hat on the earnings picture. If you're looking for the nutshell version, here it is - investors have found a reason to be buyers this week, but those reasons (to me anyway) have been flimsy stretches at best. That's all well and good, but those poorly-supported efforts rarely go anywhere. Some of the media have suggested stocks are perking up because we may not invade Syria at all. That doesn't make any sense, however. A week and a half ago we also weren't going to war with Syria either, and the market wasn't in rally mode then! At the same time, other people in the media have suggested the exact opposite could be the case - stocks could rally if Washington actually agrees to put troops on the ground in Syria. Yep, they're diametrical opposites. None of this is to say Syria won't poke and prod stocks from time to time, but it's not the basis for a long-term move higher or lower. In the end, what's really going to push stocks around in a major way is the market's earnings prospects. Now, I said all of that so I could say this... the market may continue to climb for the next few days, but in the grand scheme of things it still won't jump-start a more significant rally. You should also know that as bullish as the week has been so far, we're still just a couple of bad days away from entering serious meltdown territory. We'll use the chart of the S&P 500 to make the point, though know that all the indices are pretty much in the same boat. Despite this week's effort, the S&P 500's advance was stopped - pretty decidedly - at the 20-day moving average line today. Volume was also sharply lower; where'd all the buyers from Tuesday and Wednesday go? The fact that all those bulls suddenly dropped out is suspicious. Take a look. My point is, none of this back and forth stuff from the market means much. The S&P 500 will need to clear the 1660 area to even be in the running for a breakout, and even then there are several more ceilings to halt the advance right above there. The NASDAQ's still got a ceiling around 3686 that would need to be cleared too. Until one or more of those things happen, there's not a lot of analysis to be done. There's still plenty to be on the lookout for, however. Now it's just a waiting game. OK, that's all we've got for you today. Be sure to check back in tomorrow, not just for the latest unemployment report card, but also for any key progress from the broad market.