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VOLUME
05: ISSUE 10
Trading
Alert: Micromuse - Cash Mountain. No Debt. Great Prospects.
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Readers of the SmallCap Digest will
know that we've liked the business intelligence space for a long time.
One name from the past that has weathered the market storms is business
application concern Micromuse (NASDAQ:
MUSE). While this call is bound to be controversial given the heights
from which the company has come since the bubble days, MUSE's numbers and
prospects, we feel, now speak for themselves.
We
further feel that the growth and potential of both the company and the
sector deserve consideration as an accumulation candidate for those risk-oriented
investors looking for quality smallcap exposure to the software and business
intelligence space.
MUSE is a good trader with average
daily volume around the million-share range. The price appears to be in
a decent uptrend as evidenced by our lines on the right of the chart, which
denote the percentage rise from previous bottom to previous top. There
seems to be decent support at $4.75 and a stop there would be prudent.
The constructive look of the chart, as well as the fundamentals to follow,
we believe make the shares a good bet for risk-oriented investors. The
52-week high is $10.55. According to Yahoo, institutions hold 83 percent
of the shares.
Help me....
While this may seem like rocket science
to some, it's really not. I shall attempt to explain.
MUSE currently provides software
products and services to the likes of--among others-- BT, Cable & Wireless,
Deutsche Telekom, EarthLink, ITC DeltaCom, J.P. Morgan Chase, MCI, T-Mobile,
and Verizon. I'm sure you've heard of those names...
To quote the company, MUSE is "the
leading provider of ultra-scalable, real-time business and service assurance
software solutions". Micromuse's Netcool solutions suite of software
allows customers to monitor business processes, identify potential problems
and provide cutting edge troubleshooting. Like the old BASF ads, MUSE's
applications make customers' systems work better and more efficiently (read
cost-effectively), whether it's mapping, monitoring or managing critical
business applications. To really dig into this technology the website is
www.micromuse.com.
A look at a five-year chart of MUSE
and it's apparent that since its bubble peak at around $100 a share in
2000-01 and subsequent fall to around $1 in late 2002, there may be folks
who just don't want to know. That said, as we have seen before, some select
companies that survived that period are showing decent prospects and throwing
off good fundamentals, now that those days are fading. Not to be too cavalier,
but that was then... One has to let those days go at some point.
The numbers appear on the numbers.
The current and projected numbers
are also compelling. Revenue for fiscal 2004 (as at September 30th) was
$147 million. For fiscal 2005 and 2006 revenue projections are for $158
million and $175 million, respectively. Per share earnings projections
for fiscal 2005 and 2006 are 19 cents and 26 cents. At the current price
of $5.40, that evidences decent price earnings ratios of 28 times and 21
times, respectively.
Interesting as well is the fact that
in the last 30 days, virtually all the analysts that cover the company
revised their 2005-2006 projected earnings numbers upward.
As well, MUSE has no debt.
And, by our calculation, has about $193 million in cash and equivalents
or approximately $2.50 per share.
As well as gaining new business,
MUSE enjoys significant repeat and renewal business from existing customers
providing solid testament to its viability and growth potential.
The need for troubleshooting and
streamlining business systems and processes has gained significant traction
over the past few years and it's apparent that MUSE is in the thick of
that growth.
For those investors who want exposure
to an established, growing company, with great fundamentals, we feel that
MUSE fits the bill.
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