Well, that wasn't exactly a whiz-bang start to the new trading week. It's kind of surprising, actually. Usually when traders turn a three-day weekend into a four-day weekend (by taking the day-before session off as well, they come back with a mission. Volume comes in droves. That wasn't the case today though. Volume was a only a little better than average, and the net gain was anemic. Looks like investors are still waiting on that big catalyst to get stocks off the fence. It certainly wasn't a ho-hum day for those of you who are also subscribers to the Under the Radar Movers service, however. Remember on Friday we pointed out how the URM newsletter was up a whopping 57% on it Nova Lifestyle (NVFY) trade? Scratch that. NVFY was up about another 30% today, translating into more than a 100% gain on that position in the Under the Radar Movers short-term portfolio. James Brumley and his crew locked down that 102% profit on it Nova Lifestyle, of course. He and his team are willing to be patient, but with a triple-digit gain on the table, the risk/reward scenario starts to favor banking what you can bank while you know you can get it rather than holding out for just a little bit more that may or may not materialize. It's that kind of proactive thinking (and realistic thinking) that's made the URM newsletter so popular with so many of you already. I don't know when the newsletter's next triple-digit winner might come along. Based on what I've seen so far though, I don't think it'll take very long. It may even be one of the trades the URM team recently entered. Whenever it surfaces, you won't want to miss it. Here's how you can be sure to get it (and for less than the price of a cup of coffee per day). In any case, while stocks didn't do much on Tuesday it's not like there weren't some things that dished out some major changes. Among the biggest movers was the U.S. dollar, which fell more than a full percentage point today.... huge for a currency. It was an interesting delayed reaction. On Friday we heard August's anemic job-growth news, which should have put the kibosh on the Fed's rate-hike plans, thus sending the greenback down with interest rates. It didn't happen. In fact, on Friday rates as well as the value of the U.S. dollar were both up [the two tend to move in tandem]. Today both made up for lost time. Maybe it's just a little added volatility. The funny thing is, it sure seems like the U.S. dollar has been suffering a lot more bearish volatility than bullish volatility of late. When you take a step back and look at a weekly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index it becomes increasingly clear the undertow has been bearish for a while. It's just that the bears have been unable to pull the dollar index under the critical support level of 93.0. They keep trying though, and now that the 200-day moving average line seems to be helping out with the effort, it looks more like a matter of when rather than a matter of if. This is something that matters to all of you, even if you don't know why... even if you're a true long-termer that doesn't worry about the day-to-day stuff. The skyrocketing dollar is what put oil prices into a nose dive. It's also what's been working against most commodity prices. It's also been making life difficult on U.S. companies that sell goods and services to foreign customers. A weaker dollar would actually solve a lot of problems. But wouldn't a falling dollar help boost inflation, which in turn leads to higher interest rates? Yep, but higher interest rates would also help make banks more profitable.... something many of them sorely want, and need. The point is, while few like the way the words "weaker dollar" sound, there's a clear upside to it. The trick is finding the balance that maximizes the upside and minimizes the downside. If we can do that - and I think we can - then the economy and the market can come out of this lull mostly unscathed. In any case, while the market may have only advanced 0.3% today, it was an important 0.3%. The move carried the S&P 500 back above the critical 20-day moving average line, which is half the battle these days. There's still a huge technical ceiling at 2194, where the S&P 500 topped out a couple time in August, and where the upper Bollinger band will be pretty soon. If the bears are going to make a stand anywhere, that's the ideal place to do it. On the flipside, if the bears don't stop the train somewhere between here and there, it puts the possibility of a rare September meltup on the table. If it happens, know that it is no way, shape or form a valuation-driven rally. It doesn't matter though. If the bulls have every intention of being buyers and are willing to dismiss reality, you can't stand in their way. You can only wait for the moment they realize they're mistake, and then trade against them... with the correction of their move. If the VIX pauses at 11.40 at the same time the S&P 500 pauses at 2194, watch closely. That could be a turning point (it'll definitely be some sort of fork in the road). Even if the market rolls over there though, as James Brumley of the Under the Radar Movers newsletter noted today - after locking in a 102% gain on Nova Lifestyle - there's a huge convergence of support forming around 2160. That's good as long as it holds up, but if it snaps, ouch. Big support levels cause start big meltdowns once they're broken. So far, this is anything but your usual September.