Did
You See....
Never
let it be said the market isn't interesting. I've got some 'bigger picture'
thoughts on the last few days, and what it might mean for all of us whether
we're currently in or out of stocks. First though...
I've
been a busy blogger since our last update on Thursday morning. On Thursday
afternoon I advocated taking profits on China
Energy (OTCBB: CGYV), if you were just looking for a short-term
swing trade. On Friday I made fun of Yahoo! Finance, and took a
detailed look at the FCC's recent decision to open up the currently-unused
"white space" channels (which helps Voyant International, just so
you know). And finally, earlier today I laid the groundwork for what
I want to become an invaluable
look at sector valuations in 2009.
I'm
really excited about adopting a sector rotation study as one of my pet
projects, since I think most investors tend to underemphasize just
how wide the disparity is between the best-performing sector and
the worst-performing sector over any given timeframe.
For
instance, most investors are shocked to hear that for any given twelve
months, the leading sector usually outgains the bottom sector by
a differential of 30% or more. If you can focus on the best areas and
aviod the worst - even just partially - you've got a serious
advantage. More to come on that matter.
In
the meantime....
I'm
Hot. I'm Cold. I'm Hot. I'm Cold. I'm Hot. I'm Cold.
I don't
know about you, but this chop is getting a little annoying. I'd
prefer
to
make money in a bull market, but I can make money in a bear market
too. When we're in a sideways market though,
everyone's
patience is tested. And make no mistake - that's what we're in.
The S&P 500 is basically where it was on October 9th, though the trading
range since then has spanned a whopping 10% of the market's current value.
What's
the cure for the ill? I suggest three.
The
first
one is, think bigger picture ...which isn't a generic regurgitation
of 'think long term'. The bigger picture is devising a plan to be
able to contribute more towards retirement by cutting personal costs. The
bigger
picture is reading and learning about how to be a more successful investor,
perhaps uncovering a new way to make money in the market (like options,
futures, or whatever). The bigger picture is test driving other
brokerage firms and platforms to see if their offer is better than what
you've currently got.
The
market will still be here when you're done getting the other parts of your
house in order ...I promise.
If
you're still insistent on trading right now (which I am), the second
treatment for the exasperated patient is, patience. You can't make
the market do anything... even what it's 'supposed' to do. All we can really
do is wait for the right opportunity, and then act when it materializes.
On
that note, here's essentially what I'm waiting for when it comes to the
S&P 500...
The
pinnacle of buy signals here would be a close above 1010. That's
been the upper edge of the recent trading range, and it's now where the
upper Bollinger band (20 day) is. Both have the potential to act as a ceiling.
If they both break though, there's really not much resistance left.
On
the support side of the chart, my near-term line in the sand is 905. My
longer-term floor is at 845...the lower end of the recent range. A close
under 845 would be the lowest close in years, and needless to say, could
deflate the already-flimsy optimism of the market.
The
third suggestion? You didn't think I was just talking about sector
rotation for the heck of it, did you? Though the market's been flat
since early October, over the last three weeks the top performing
sector (telecom) has gained 14%, while the bottom performing sector
(financials) has lost 1%. Point being, it is possible to make money
in the market ...if you know where to look. That's why I want to
devote some time to the topic.
And
what do I make of today's action? Though it was a tad on the scary
side, note that we made higher highs and higher lows despite the
lower close. The VIX followed suit, inversely of course. So, I don't
want to go overboard and sound an alarm bell just yet. In fact, the strong
finish and strong volume in the last five minutes of the day hints that
- when it's all said and done - investors actually want to be net
buyers here. We'll see.
Be
sure to check the blog tomorrow, since this market is like the weather
in England ...always changing.
Coming
Up
I think
Spicy
Pickle (OTCBB: SPKL) is due to report earnings this week. I don't
have a firm release date, but they generally report right in the middle
of the month; the last 10Q was submitted on August 14th, sooo....
What
kind of numbers am I looking for from the Pickle? More of the same,
which is nice growth in the top line, but not necessarily on the
bottom line. I'm not going to deny I'd love to see a big fat net margin,
but I'm not going to set the bar impossibly high here. The recession impacted
this company like it did so many others, so to start passing judgment here
isn't fair to them or to potential shareholders. (Besides, they've
managed to continue the expansion via acquisition.)
I think
Voyant
International (OTCBB: VOYT) should be reporting any day now as
well.
Voyant's
story is similar to Spicy Pickle's, in that we can reasonably expect the
top line to improve at least a little, but probably shouldn't expect a
positive bottom line just yet.
Between
those two small cap followings, the onset of earnings season, the Presidential
transition, and a schizophrenic market, this week should prove to be an
adventure.