News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Two More Industries Just Became Trade-Worthy
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Happy Saint Patrick's Day, everybody! Although investors weren't particularly lucky on Tuesday, it's not like the market is too far gone to salvage now. So, we're lucky in the sense we still see a glimmer of hope for a rebound before stocks stumble over the edge of the cliff. I still generally say a corrective move is a necessary evil, but we've yet to cross that line. SCN Elite Opportunity Free Alerts Get premium select stock picks via email and mobile text alerts from our SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity Team. It's 100% FREE! No strings attached and no credit card required. Click here to sign-up today! We'll talk more about the broad market in a moment. We've got something else bigger and better to take care of first. Trade-Worthy Industry Trends It's been longer than I meant for it to be since our last suggestion of a trade-worthy industry trend, so we're going to make a point of giving you a new one today... two actually. But, since some of you are newcomers, a quick explanation is in order. Though we don't do individual stock picking here in this newsletter [we've delegated those duties to the guys over at the Elite Opportunity], we do still want to help our readers keep a firm grip on the market's long-term and short-term trends, and we still want to help you narrow down which sectors and industries are the must-haves for the foreseeable future. It matters, because the marketwide tide carries three out of four stocks with it, and up to 40% of an individual stock's net movement can be attributed to its sector or industry. Translation: If you pick the right industry and know which way the market's winds are truly blowing, the stock-picking battle is more than half-won. That's why we spend so much time doing this stuff.... because it's so valuable. Anyway, as of our last look at bullish industries on February 18th we liked aerospace, homebuilding, and electronics/electrical names. All three arenas are in trends we think make them better picks than other industries, but we've got a handful of new industry-based technical calls today worth your consideration. Real quickly, let's take a look at our "open" calls on aerospace, homebuilding, and electronics stocks - beginning with aerospace - using the Dow Jones Aerospace Index (DJUSAS) as our proxy. Not only is the index still above the key former ceiling at 941, it almost looks like it's become a floor as of last week. As for the Dow Jones Electronic and Electrical Index (DJUSEE), you might recall a lot of our bullishness was predicated on the index getting over the hump at 287 first. As it turns out, it happened the week after we made the bullish call. It didn't stick, mind you, as DJUSEE peeled back last week. Take a close look at the chart today though. The index is working hard to hurdle that line again, still fueled by the long-term consolidation phase seen over the bulk of last year. Finally, the last of the open calls is homebuilding, via the Dow Jones Homebuilding Index (DJUSHB). It dished out a pretty good move above a ceiling at 556, but like most stocks, it gave up ground over the past four weeks. It's still holding the line though, so I'll give it the benefit of the doubt. So what are the new favorite industries based on technical strength? We've actually got more than we can handle for you today, so be sure to stick around the rest of this week to get the rest. We can only squeeze in two new ones today. The first one is the clothing and accessories industry. We're using the Dow Jones Clothing and Accessories Index (DJUSCF) to make the point. It's been an erratic group to be sure. But, when you take a step back and look at this longer-term trend, you can sense something bullish is going on. These stocks are collectively finding support in all the right places, and turning ceilings into floors. It's also establishing a good technical base at 343 right now, from which the index could catapult itself at least back to a rising resistance line (dashed). Honestly though, after more than a year of consolidation, I can see these stocks going parabolic soon. The bulls have been testing the waters for months. The other "right time/right place" industry is airline stocks. The rally from the Dow Jones Airline Index (DJUSAR) is undeniable. More important to us right now, however, is how the group is starting to wiggle its way out of a sideways phase it's been stuck in since late last year. Giddy up. Giving full credit where it's due, it was the Elite Opportunity newsletter that got us and kept us interested in airline stocks. Not only have John Monroe and his team been trading oil (the root of all this bullishness from airline stocks) with laser-like precision in recent months, but it was the EO team that suggested JetBlue (JBLU) as an attractive idea way back in October. Since then, JBLU has advanced an amazing 70%. Wow. Some of you may have acted on the JetBlue idea, since it was one of the picks the Elite Opportunity dished out as a freebie to everyone who reads this newsletter whether they're an EO subscriber or not. In the meantime things have changed a little, though not for the worst - now those free stock picks are being delivered separately from the newsletter you're reading now. There's room to add your name to that list too! Don't miss out on the next JetBlue-like pick. Just go here to sign up, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEOL/v1/ Or, think about it like this... if you'd prefer someone else pick an individual stock for you rather than have us merely name some hot industries like we just did, signing up for the free EO picks is your simplest and most straight-forward choice. Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place This might be the shortest market-based commentary I've delivered to you guys (and gals) in years. Here goes... Stocks remain trapped in the middle. The S&P 500 is still holding above a major floor around 2055, but is still held below the key 20-day moving average line at 2088. The NASDAQ looks slightly more encouraging, though not enough so that I want to even bother with a chart. That really is it. There's not a lot to talk about until the indices fight their way out of their current rut. I hope it doesn't take long, but we need to be as patient as we need to be while the market figures out where it's going next. Though I was leaning bearishly through last week, after seeing the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 do well today, I'd say were back to a 50/50 proposition.... 50% chance of recovering, and a 50% chance of continuing the selloff. The odds change every day with the market's movements, but I'm not into coin tosses. We all need at least some sort of measurable edge, and I'm willing to wait a while for it. Heck, we may well get that clear edge by the end of the week. Cold Weather Chills the Construction Market Is everybody familiar with the term "seasonally-adjusted"? It's just a way economists can normalize data that would otherwise - and unfairly - be swayed by factors out of anyone's control. [The weather is the biggest seasonal factor, and it probably has the biggest impact on the construction industry.] That's why all the economists working for government-backed agencies make a point of publishing data as "seasonally-adjusted" numbers -- to keep investors from being confused by data that is supposed to (normally) change with the season. Great, but what's this got to do with anything today? A lot, actually. The housing starts and building permits data for February published today was seasonally-adjusted based on the typical February lull with those numbers. Problem is, February of 2015 was anything but typical. It was absolutely brutal for a big chunk of the country, as not one but two major snowstorms swept across much of the nation. It's an important thing to keep in mind because in my opinion - even with the seasonal adjustment - February's housing starts didn't have a prayer of looking healthy. Take a look at the data through last month's numbers. Housing starts fell from a seasonally-adjusted pace of 1.081 million to 897,000. It's a visibly-noticeable plunge. It's also one I wouldn't sweat in the least, as much of the lull is likely to be offset in March and April. Indeed, as you can see on the plot of the issued permits data, the industry is still asking for more and more building permits. Just thought you might like to see this bigger trend, and get a firm grip on what's really going on. Don't forget to register for the free stock pick alerts from the Elite Opportunity team. You'll get more than just our sector calls - you'll get specific stock picks, short-term and long-term.