Welcome back everyone. Hope you all had a nice long weekend, celebrating it however it is you celebrate. There's one more week left to go this year, however, and though volume is apt to be very light, I can still see some opportunities with individual stocks popping up. More on that below. First I want to take a look at the broad market, since it's at a crossroads after last Friday's surprising gain.
Is This Move For Real?
Ya' know, the market's been all over the map lately. Since August 8th, every ebb has pretty much been countered by a flow. Just to put it into perspective, the S&P 500 has gained 13% since the early August low, but has 'traveled' (between peaks and bottoms) a total of 82% during that time. It's been maddening getting slung around like that, but not making any real progress.
Ahh... but there's the key - the market has been making progress. It's just been obscured by a ton of volatility. The cumulative effect has finally paid off though... probably.
We don't look at it too often, since we tend to be more focused on the short-term trading opportunities and less worried about the longer-term stuff, but the 200-day moving average line was cleared last week. It's a sign that the bigger-picture undertow is bullish even if it doesn't feel like it from one day to the next.
The S&P 500 has also reached a high of 1269.37 today, just barely eclipsing the peak made in early December. The move happened after the S&P 500 made its second higher low since early October.
The point is, the market is making bullish progress. It's just making it the hard way.
There's a downside to keep in the back of your mind though - that nagging ebb and flow stuff. While we just cleared some big technical hurdles, I have no reason to think this back and forth pattern is now in the past. The odds are good that we'll find the S&P 500 back under the important 200-day moving average line sooner than later. Don't freak out about it, because it's likely to be temporary. And in my view, it's ultimately a buying opportunity. We just need to make sure the market makes its next low above the prior one. It's a fairly safe bet that it will happen, however, now that the other moving averages are acting as support levels.
As for this week, there's no telling what kind of progress you'll see. This week is historically the lowest volume week of the year, and more often than not there's not enough trading activity to move the market much in either direction. Never say never though. We'll be keeping tabs on it.
Now, about some of those individual stocks...
VirnetX Holdings Reignited
Were you listening when revived the discussion of VirnetX Holdings (VHC) a couple of weeks ago? I hope so. This thing has taken off over the past few days. Good news though - there's more meat left on the bone.
Matthew Briar gets most of the credit here, putting VirnetX Holdings back on the radar on December 5th by noting it had managed to make its way back above the 100-day and 200-day moving average lines. Bryan Murphy took that ball and ran with it later, explaining on the 20th how the $23.90 level was the make-or-break line that had been cleared by the prior day's surge. James Brumley laid the final piece of the puzzle on the 22nd, noting how the stalling right after the move above $23.90 was ultimately a good thing. Sure enough, VHC has since soared from $25.04 to the current price of $28.37 (a 13.3% pop). With all that volume still pouring in though, more upside could be in the cards.
On the other hand, I do think it'll be tough for VirnetX to tack on more gains straight-away. I suspect we'll see pause with VHC here for a while (this week, along with the market's) before the next bullish leg. The heavy lifting's been done though, and remember, Cohen said this thing was worth closer to $50.
Rite-Aid On the Right Track
Rite-Aid (RAD) is another one of the names we've been trading lately, mostly on volatility - it's been all over the map lately, which is great if you can spot the tops and bottoms. Well, things finally seem to be calming down now, but that doesn't mean Rite-Aid is any less trade-worthy. It's just not as explosive as it was. Now, RAD is gently riding its short-term moving averages higher.
My near-term mental target is still the same though... the $1.38 level, where Rite-Aid topped out in November and July. If the stock surges to that level again, I can see the profit-takers coming out of the woodwork. If instead RAD just keeps moving at its current pace, this chart may quietly sneak past $1.38 and then keep on going. Either way....
U.S. Energy Corp. Gets Energized
Finally, a name I ran across a few days ago I thought was worth passing along to you - U.S. Energy Corp. (USEG). This highly-diversified miner/driller/explorer stock had been getting crushed earlier in the year, falling back from $7.60 in April to a low of $1.87 in early October. Since then though, USEG has been fighting its way higher. That's good. Even better is that it still has lots of room to rise before even getting close to any key technical ceilings.
What got my attention was the fact that U.S. Energy Corp. shares are knocking on the door of a key short-term technical ceiling at $3.28. If it can make its way past that, I see another round of buying being unlocked.
USEG is justifying higher prices too. Though it's still taking losses, they're getting smaller; a swing to profitability isn't out of the question in 2012, which I suspect is the reason U.S. Energy shares are doing as well as they are now. If basic materials prices continue to rise, the odds of a swing to profit are even better.
Anyway, it's just an idea to consider. I've got a few more in the works that I may be passing along to you this week while things are quiet and we don't have to fight to get in.
Oh, and if you think something you got for Christmas was the worst gift ever, check this out - it may make you feel a little better.