Welcome to the weekend, everybody. And, we're sure glad this past week is behind us. While stocks technically made progress on a close-to-close basis, it just felt like every inch of that gain was a grind, you know? Hopefully things will either be much easier for the bulls in the coming week, or the bears will take over for a few days and really give us something of a mini-capitulation. I'm ok with either one of those outcomes. I'm just not ok with this slow, laboring effort that doesn't do anybody any real good. Anyway, we finally got the long-awaited update on Q3's earnings result for the S&P 500. I gotta say, I was pleasantly surprised how well the market's major stocks turned things around from last week's alarming early results. I still wouldn't classify them as "good", but sometimes, relative success is "good enough" to keep the buyers coming to the table. We'll look at those numbers in a second. The first thing I wanted to do for you today was add a little color to something I've been expecting for moths, yet still haven't seen. History says I may not want to hold my breath. Not Common, But Not Rare Either As you may recall, one of my biggest gripes about this bull market is how, well, for more than a couple of years now we've not seen a "normal" correction of 10% or more. It's not that I'm looking for bearish trades and end up frustrated because we never get a decent downward move. Mostly I'm looking for deep but short-term dips I can use as entry points into long-term positions. But, when something isn't happening that should be happening, it can throw a real wrench in the works. As it turns out, I'm not crazy for thinking we've gone too long without a sizeable dip. The guys over at Bespoke Investment Group (they have some of the best data nuggets) crunched the numbers, and are reporting we've now completed 518 trading days without a correction of 10% or more. It's unusual, but not unheard of. By late-2007 we were in a stretch of more than 1000 trading days without a major correction, and at one point in 1997 we were getting close to a 2000-day streak without any major pullbacks. While those two cases were extremes, here at the 518-day mark we're not actually doing something unheard of, even if it's a little odd. The question is, why has this been able to happen, and when might the streak end? The answer to the first question is, because we're in a low-growth environment where monster-sized rallies are equally rare, negating the need for a big pullback. The answer to the second question is, not until the Fed actually acts on its taper threat. See, the Fed has been stunningly accommodative for at least a couple of years now, using the stock market as a barometer for the economy. Ben Bernanke was never going to let the market get anywhere close to pulling back enough to suggest the economy was in trouble (or let it convince anyone he wasn't going to pull out all the stops in keeping it propped up). His approach worked too. Right or wrong, the Federal Reserve bought an uninterrupted two-year rally. With all of that being said, all streaks come to an end. We just never know when. That's why it's dangerous to assume anything about the market. That's also why we try and reassess the bigger picture every day with an open mind and a clean slate. I'm certainly not going to assume a 10% correction is in the cards anymore just because we haven't seen one in a while. Q3 Earnings Report Card OK, things aren't as dire now as they appeared to be early on during earnings season, though we're still not doing great. Let's just dig in. First and foremost, of the 245 of the S&P 500's companies that have reported third quarter earnings so far, 67% of them have done better than expected. That's better than the recent norm of about 65%. Better still, only about 19% of those companies have fallen short of estimates, versus the recent typical "miss" rate of about 25%. That's good, even if the relative success was due to estimates being lowered not too far in front of the beginning of earnings season. Perhaps more important is that the S&P 500 is now on pace to earn $26.94 for Q3, up from the original guess of $26.84 before earnings season began. It's certainly a turnaround from the revised forecast of $26.62 as of last week. That $26.94 figure is also 12.2% better than the year ago earnings of $24.00 per share too. Just keep in mind the year-ago number was artificially suppressed. None of the relative success has prevented the forward-looking estimates from being dialed back, though. The pros expect Q4's per-share earnings to now reach $28.52, rather than the $28.89 expected at the beginning of the fourth quarter. The 2014 outlook now stands at $121.20, down from the forecast of $121.83 at the end of September. Of course, we're still only halfway through earnings season. Anything can still happen. As of right now, the S&P 500 is trading at a trailing P/E of 17.18, and at 14.4 times 2014's estimated income. Analysts are looking for income growth of 13.2% next year. I'm going to be able to dive into some sector-based earnings trends for you next week. The Best Advice I Ever Got ... Again It's a debate we've hosted before. Heck, it's a debate we've taken both sides of, just for the sake of a fruitful argument. But, every time we have the discussion with you or among ourselves, the winning conclusion is still the same... long-term investors are more apt to do better than short-term traders (and this is coming from a group of folks who do plenty of short-term trading). If you're wondering what brought this on, it was something said in today's edition of the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity newsletter. For whatever reason - and despite the fact that I knew it so well already - something John Monroe wrote today just stuck in my craw that I had to pass along to you. He writes: Whatever you do, buy and hold select ideas for the long haul until either a point in time where you believe the indexes are going to implode for a few years or we identify some sort of major market top that will end this current bull market. Until then, keep on investing for the long haul, be prudent, be selective and definitely don't be too hyperactive. He's exactly right. Even as much as we try to help you navigate the market's short-term ups and downs in this newsletter, it's all being done within the context of how it fits into a long-term investing plan. For instance, and like I mentioned to you above, the only reason it bugs me we're not getting short-term 10% corrections from the market is that it doesn't give us long-term buying opportunities. Heck, even when we pass along stock-trading ideas to you, we acknowledge most of them could become long-term holdings as long as they trade well. But what about all those FDA approvals, promotion-driven surges, and the discovery of budding superstar companies that serve up triple-digit trading opportunities to folks willing to get in and get out in just a matter of days (if not hours)? Yeah, those trading opportunities are out there, but rare is the person who can consistently act on all the winners and avoid all of the losers - both types of trades tend to look the same at their onset. Eventually, if you play with fire, you're going to get burned. Moreover, I think it's inaccurate to say a holding that's safe enough to own for the long-term isn't capable of putting up big gains. Take Nexstar Broadcasting (NXST) as an example. It was neither a penny stock nor a tiny company nor particularly exciting entity a year ago. Yet, Nexstar shares are up 350% year-to-date. It's not as if the company swung to a surprise profit in 2013 or accidentally landed a big contract either. The established cable-television company has only done this year what it's been doing for several years, getting the same traction it has for years. It did swing to a profit, but that's been on the radar for a while and should have been no surprise. No, the only reason NXST is a huge winner is because most investors either overlooked it then, or didn't want to believe what they were seeing. Point being, you can score HUGE wins as a long-term investor, and it's probably easier to find one long-term trade like Nexstar than it is to find ten consecutive short-term 35% winners in any given year (which would give you the same bottom-line results). You just have to go find the next Nexstar, and then stick with it. In the end, I firmly believe you'll have a bigger bottom line by not making short-term trading your focal point. The stats and data about short-term traders tend to support the idea too. With all of that being said, the gentle reminder from the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity reminded of something else I don't say often enough about the newsletter John Monroe and his team publish ... as potent as his picks are, even if the SCN EO never gave you another trading idea, the lessons, tips, advice, and reality checks alone make the Elite Opportunity service worthwhile. Folks, it's like nothing else out there. The SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity can make you a better trader/investor even if you never act on one of its ideas because those guys know the difference between trading and investing, and they know how to teach you both. That's something the "pick 'em and forget 'em" services just can't say about their products. Don't believe it? Give it two (free) weeks to find out for yourself. Here's how to get it. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/