Happy Tuesday, folks. And if you were long or net-bullish on stocks, Tuesday was a pretty good day for you. The market just logged its sixth straight daily gain, and though it feels a little overbought as a result, the more distance we can put between where the indices are now and the hurdles they cleared late last week, the better. In other words, there's a little wiggle room now - if the market stumbles from here, it's a lot less likely to trigger a selling avalanche. I'll give you the details of that idea in a moment. First we need to get on the soapbox (just for a couple of minutes) in response to something I'm guessing at least a few of you saw today. Housing Overheated? I Don't Think So. I'm willing to bet most of you are like me... market junkies that have to skim all the headlines and absorb every day's biggest stories on the web's most popular investing-oriented sites. That's why I'm willing to bet a bunch of you saw this commentary at Yahoo! Finance explaining that this report from Zillow suggested the housing market was apt to get dangerously overheated again. The reason? Because the average home values in most major and some not-so-major cities is on pace to move above their pre-subprime-crisis levels. The report also noted that once again, very few homebuyers are making down payments of more than 10%, implying loan quality may already be suffering. More directly, the gist of the message was, we're right back to the unhealthy real estate activity levels and prices that kick-started a major meltdown. Well, I understand where the Zillow report is coming from. Gotta be honest though... of all the problems the housing market is facing here, I'd say getting overheated is the least of them. If anything, I suspect housing is starting to struggle more than soar, and we've got more than a few data points to back the premise up. I think I mentioned to you last week that we'd be rounding out the real estate report card with another wave of data this week. Two more pieces of that puzzle were laid today - the FHFA Home Price Index, and the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales figure. Let's just say both were lackluster. The FHFA index of home prices showed a 0.6% increase, which is progress, but hardly "overheated" levels. Meanwhile, the pace of existing home sales fell to 4.59 million, which is the lowest reading we've seen since 2012. Both pieces of data are updated on our chart of all the key real estate data below. Also, remember that we already got March's housing starts and building permits data was updated last week, and there was nothing particularly thrilling with either of them. Take a look. The picture will be completed tomorrow (Wednesday) when we get last month's new home sales figures from the Department of Commerce. Honestly though, barring something miraculous there, I don't see any way we could call the housing market anything other than mediocre right now. Heck, some of the trends of the above data look weak and/or are weakening to the point of alarm. It gets worse. As of right now, the vast, vast majority of economists expect interest rates to start rising by this fall. While this doesn't necessarily have to crimp the housing market, it sure isn't going to help it. My point is, if you happened to see the news or catch the Zillow report and it spooked you, forget about it. There are far more legitimate worries to sweat besides an overheating real estate market. We just wanted you to have the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Now, about this market... Yeah, But... I'll be the first to confess I'm surprised the market managed to make it this far without the bears putting up any fight. Then again, when you get right down to it, have stocks or the major indices really done anything to shake themselves out of their rut? The answer is no, not really, and John Monroe over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity sees a potential pitfall dead ahead too. We'll take a close look at what he sees on the horizon for the NASDAQ Composite after I dissect the S&P 500's chart for you. In simplest terms, until the S&P 500 actually clears a huge technical ceiling around 1895, none of this recent bullishness really matters because the only thing this current rally has done is carry the market back to the upper edge of a sideways trading range. Oh, it was an impressive runup for sure, but it's not like we have been here a couple of times already - to no avail. In fact, one has to wonder if the rally stopped where it stopped today explicitly because we found that ceiling at 1884 again. It's also more than a tad alarming how for the second day in a row there's a serious lack of volume behind the rally effort. Granted, today's volume was better than yesterday's, but it was still weak relative to the recent norm. If stocks are so great here at these prices, why aren't more people buying them? While I don't want to say to you that the market's incapable of making a breakout, I find it suspicious how the bullish effort stopped right at a known ceiling. If the bears were going to push back, this is the most likely spot they'd do it. So, tomorrow is a pivotal day. John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity tends to focus more on the NASDAQ Composite than the S&P 500, but it's interesting that he also sees some serious resistance just a bit above where his focal index now stands. In his newsletter from today he explains: ....we're in an extremely volatile environment right now, so short-term traders should pay close attention to the way the indexes start behaving as the NASDAQ approaches that 4,207 level... we're not insinuating the markets are definitely going to break down around 4,200 on the NASDAQ. I'm just saying if it's going to break down, that's likely going to be the most logical level. Here's a chart of the NASDAQ, for some perspective. I'd like to be able to tell you exactly why Monroe thinks the 4200 area is such a big deal for the NASDAQ, but I don't have time or room. I will tell you, however, that if John thinks it's important, then it's important. He's just been lighting it up on his short-term index-based trading lately, scoring about a 10% gain on a trade he recommended in early April, banking a 13% gain in mid-March on the same bearish leveraged ETF that scored him a 10% win a few days earlier, and he's currently up about 10% on a different leveraged ETF he used to play the bounce that unfurled when the market hit bottom on the 15th. Point being, he's been threading the needle, so if he thinks there's something about the NASDAQ's 4207 area, we all might want to listen. Whichever chart is the one you like to trade, John and I agree on one thing - this is crunch time. The market's going to have to become a hero or a goat this week. It could start to happen as early as tomorrow, though we won't have a ton of clarity on the hero/goat debate until later in the week. I honestly hope the market pulls back a little (but not a lot) if a major breakout is what's in the cards. Both indices are already overbought, and if they were to thrust through their resistance lines from here without any hesitation, I can see a nasty wave of profit-taking up-ending that effort pretty quickly. If instead the indices just park it near where they closed today for a few days without pulling under the moving average lines they just crawled back above - at 1855 for the S&P 500 - that would give the bulls a breather and give stocks a chance to cool off. That makes it far more likely a break past their ceilings would last a while once they materialize. Of course, sustainable pacing has never been the market's strong suit. We'll check in with you on Wednesday. In the meantime, if you want to see for yourself just how good the Elite Opportunity is at navigating the market's twists and turns, here's how to find out for free, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/