Good Tuesday afternoon, one and all. Well, how about the market today? Stocks were still on the fence as of Monday's close, but a surprisingly strong reading on the new-home sales front prodded the market into bullishness. Maybe things aren't so bad after all.
In any case, I think what happened today (and we're still not so sure it's the beginning of a trade-worthy rally) kind of supports something I've been thinking for a while. That is, everything's been anemic with economic data, and so too have stocks. We need some big, bold data to shake the market out of this rut. It's pretty clear stocks can't move higher because of valuation concerns, but it's equally clear traders aren't willing to send stocks lower, out of fear of missing out on what might happen later this year. After all, the economic news and earnings reports were never "bad". They've just not been "great" in a while. Today's surge in new-home sales was some truly "great" data, and traders made it clear they will respond to it.
Now they just need to see a little - ok, a lot - more of it. When it all comes down do it, investors just need to believe earnings will grow. That's something they haven't had in a while.
That's the bigger picture anyway. The volatility in the meantime can kill you, of course, if you don't know how to keep the beast tamed.
Once again, John Monroe over the Elite Opportunity Pro newsletter has his finger on that pulse. Here's part of what he had to say today:
"I've included daily charts of all three below. As you can see with the NASDAQ Composite here, I've circled the last two weeks or so of trading activity. See how the last week's low was just slightly lower than the low from two weeks ago? Should the index manage to break above the May 11th high shown here, the technical move will clearly suggest an increase in volatility.
Although one would have thought last week's break of its previous week's low would trigger further downside, all it did was trap those shorts and rotate itself right back to the upside. Now, it continues to look like the index wants to break at least just above that May 11th high now before it could be in a position to reverse itself yet again....
...The bottom line is we've seen on so many prior occasions, whereby the markets reverse themselves on key technical breaks. It just continues to look like the only way to profit from the markets' short-term moves is to fade against them on key technical breaks in either direction.
With that, let's see just how high the major indices want to go this week before we decide to suggest another leveraged index ETF trade, because if things continue the way they've been for quite some time now, we could get another bearish entry once the NASDAQ achieves anywhere between..."
Here's the chart of the NASDAQ John was talking about.
Sorry we couldn't give you more about John's take on the NASDSAQ Composite - like his trigger levels for a selloff. You get the idea though. Things look good today, but things have looked good before to no avail. Stocks may just be trying to trick us.
To get John's daily insight before the end of the day, and to learn all of his specific targets and stop-levels, the Elite Opportunity Pro remains a must-have for traders. Here's how you can get it, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/EOP/v1/
On a completely unrelated note, here's a look at one of charts James Brumley included in his The Future Investor newsletter today. It's not labeled, but what you're looking at is the S&P 600 Small Cap Technology Index, its earnings (past and projected), and its valuation.
One thing really stood out about this chart. That is, how often have you seen this level of detailed research about not just a sector, but certain market cap within a sector? For most of us I'd venture the answer is "Never." Brumley is right in that regard though... it's the little things that can make a big difference in your portfolio. [A stock's sector accounts for 40% of its movement.]
Of course, James also talked at length about the small cap tech sector as a group. That discussion alone was a real treat.
The Future Investor didn't stop there. Brumley is going to go head and take a look at all the top small cap stocks within the technology sector, and pick one or two out for inclusion in the Future Investor portfolio. How do I know this? Because he said so. That list and pick could come as early as tomorrow.
I gotta say... I was talking to James about the strategy -- he calls it a "drill-down" approach -- before we officially started publishing our new newsletters, and I'm pretty excited about his top-down methodology. He insists that EVERYTHING be right about a trade before he gets in.
I can't wait to see what other tricks he has up his sleeve to help you get more out of the market.
Of course, his genius doesn't do you any good if you're not a member of The Future Investor club. Here's how to get on board, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/TFI/v1/
Anyway, if you're not yet a member of any of our premium newsletter services, we're pleased to let you know we'll be issuing a new trading idea tomorrow morning. This little company has been hard at work, but nobody's noticed how much it's gotten done. That could change real soon though, and if it does there's no telling where this thing could end up.
It'll all make sense tomorrow morning.