News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Here Comes the Big Test - Goldman Makes Us Look Good With RIMM
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

It's nice to know we're in good company. This morning shares of RIMM jumped yet again making a new short-term high on a Goldman Sachs buy recommendation. The Goldman buy rec. comes a little over a week after we suggested getting long the stock at $9.80 per share. Here's the difference between us and Goldman... we spotted the opportunity over 20% lower than Goldman did, thus giving our readers a much more favorable entry. With Goldman Sachs being the most successful brokerage and investment banking house in Wall Street history, it's nice to know we're providing you with ideas that the Goldman's of the world see the same opportunity with, only sooner. Additionally, sorry RIMM naysayers, you lose again. One of the big advantages to sticking with us here at SCN is we don't have to position large clients before suggesting entering into an idea. We can be a lot quicker and much more nimble than the big boys occupying the elite office space that stretches eight blocks across Lower Manhattan. I can almost assure you big Wall Street firms like Goldman favorably position their large clients into ideas well before they come out and issue a buy rec. That's just not the case here. As soon as we believe the time is right for a particular stock or an index trade, we'll be among the first to let you know. We have no reason to hold back an idea. More often than not, this will likely result in a much more favorable entry into the idea in question. Although RIMM is doing quite well so far, we're continuing to work diligently to peel apart the mobile tech space of late in an effort to uncover even more ideas that are going to yield the type of stellar returns we've delivered all year. We continue to believe the shakeup in the mobile device world is going to end up revealing some excellent ideas that will generate the type of life changing returns we're all looking for. This shifting and changing of the tide with respect to mobile tech is still early in its infancy, believe it or not. It's only a matter of time before the desktop PC just doesn't exist anymore. This is likely going to be the big catalyst that allows tech stocks to continue to outperform the rest of the markets on a go-forward basis. Before we get into analyzing today's index activity, I just want to remind you the reason RIMM generated such astronomical returns from 2003 to 2008 was in large part due to Wall Street's fanatical adoption of the Blackberry and its revolutionary technology. If Wall Street again runs back to their Crackberry ways next year, you're going to see RIMM pull a Déjà vu you can go straight to the bank on. We're perfectly positioned for it since our entry into the stock will likely be enough to generate monster returns before the jury is even out. That's the beauty of speculation. Getting Close to the Acid Test Onward and upward. Just as we predicted yesterday, the markets got off to another great start today after all of the indexes managed to close yesterday above their Tuesday highs. Once the indexes broke above the Tuesday high, that was a signal for short-term traders to get long the markets. Why? We talked about the 3/8 retracement level on the NASDAQ as being a pretty logical resistance level that would, at the very least, initiate a short-term pullback. That's exactly what happened, albeit so short-term that it did it all within a single and volatile day. So, when the indexes pulled all the way back to the 3X3 yesterday, then reversed course and found renewed interest going into the close, the trend became your friend with another move up this morning. I've included a daily chart of the NASDAQ 100 here pointing out what I'm referring to. Now, the 5/8 level becomes the target. What's interesting is the S&P 500 is already up against its 5/8 retracement level as I type, while the NASDAQ hasn't quite got there yet. The 5/8 level on the NDX sits at about 2731, as you can see here. With the confluence area I've circled in this daily chart, I'm assuming the NDX will trade at least slightly above that before the markets will be tested again. However, it will be important to also keep a close eye on the S&P, which has taken lead over the rest of the indexes since the market bottomed almost two weeks ago. This is a bit odd since the NASDAQ has been the leader for a long time. Time will tell very soon if the S&P 500 is the new leader or not. I suspect the recent leadership in the S&P 500 can be attributed to a bit of a broader market rally than what we've seen in previous months. From a longer-term perspective, we're holding off on any new ideas until we see what happens with the test of that 5/8 retracement level mentioned above on the NASDAQ. Why? The short-term daily charts are clearly in bullish mode right now, however, the weekly charts are clearly in a bearish down trend with the last two weeks only proving a relief rally at this point. In the best interest of objectivity, the monthly charts are still bullishly intact, so we're likely going to see some significant volatility before it's all said and done. If the indexes can close out the year somewhere close to their September highs, that is going to be an excellent indication of potentially better things to come going into the new year. However, should this current rally stall around this 5/8 retracement level, and start working its way back toward lower levels, there will be no clear indication we're out of the woods just yet. It's really important when trying to navigate the markets that you consider all possibilities and leave no stone unturned. Those investors who aimlessly leave out critical fundamental or technical components when considering entering or exiting the markets, even on a long-term basis, are usually among the many who miss out on big moves up or are left holding the bag on big moves down. The markets are capable of just about anything and everything on any given day, so it's critical you stay on top of your money and give it the time and attention it deserves. Furthermore, I've said it at least ten times this year, the most important aspect to making money in the markets outside of being in the right ideas, is knowing who you are as an investor. Decide well in advance if you're a long-term player, a short-term player or somewhere in between. That will save you a ton of grief. Let's continue to be opportunistic and pick our spots. It's worked well all year, so there's no need to change our thinking at this point, at least not yet anyway. Tomorrow, we'll have another look at gold, which we've considered a dead trade all year, and we've been spot on with that analysis. We'll also have a look at the Russell 2000. You may be surprised what we're seeing there. And, as far as our recently suggested oil trade, that appears to be doing just fine, still up from our initial entry. Have a great afternoon, see you tomorrow.