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Market
Update: We Crossed the Line
New Trade
Alerts: Expedia Inc. (EXPE), Teleflex Inc. (TFX)
From the
Community
Market
Update - The Line's Been Crossed
We'll
get to the discussion of new trades on Expedia and Teleflex in a moment.
I think the bigger-picture look at the market is the more pressing issue
today.....
What
a difference a week makes, huh? Though we took a small loss two
weeks ago, the market was still on the verge of new 52-week highs. Now,
we're on pace to close out the week about 3% below last Friday's close,
having broken a major support line in the process.
Yes,
I do think all these clues line up to suggest a relatively significant
correction. I do NOT, however, think this is the beginning of a
market disaster.
I want
to update the chart
we posted last Friday, as it illustrates quite clearly what's changed
and where this all may be going.
From
the top, we can see the ascending wedge (green lines) I discussed last
week has indeed led to a tumble. The lower, support side of the range buckled
on Wednesday, and yesterday's attempt to climb back above it ultimately
failed. Today, we're back in the red.
That
in itself isn't the whole reason I doubt we'll make a recovery effort though.
No, the clincher came yesterday when the market rallied sharply, but there
was relatively little volume (nowhere near as much volume we saw when things
were headed lower earlier in the week). Sorry I couldn't show the volume
bars on my chart because it's getting crowded enough already, but trust
me - the volume was light yesterday.
I did
re-plot the breadth and depth data though, as I did a week ago.
Depth
had already turned bearish at the time, while the breadth trend still had
a shot at recovering. It didn't though - the breadth trend turned bearish
in the meantime, as signaled by the bearish depth moving average crossing
above the bullish depth moving average. That turn for the worst is accented
by the fact that all of this happened right about the same time the market
itself fell under major support levels.
And
where's it all going? I still contend the Fibonacci retracement lines
(blue) are good mental targets four our current situation. The first one's
at 936, which would translate into a dip of 15% from the peak of 1101.
Ouch!
But hey... that's actually a pretty normal correction anymore.
New
Trade Alerts
Though
I'm obviously taking a bearish view of things for the time being, I still
want to stick with playing both sides of the market by issuing bullish
as
well as bearish trading ideas together. This week, I'm bearish on Expedia
Inc. (EXPE), and bullish on Teleflex Inc. (TFX). No matter what, we'll
have the wind at our back for one of the trades. And, if I've chosen carefully,
either pick should be strong enough to resist any headwind.
Expedia
Inc. (EXPE)
If
it rings a bell, it's because I highlighted the looming breakdown from
Expedia in some comments
from yesterday. At the time, the chart had flashed a few key hints
of a major reversal; today's move to lower lows seals the deal as far as
I'm concerned.
As
for a target level, I find it very interesting that the first major Fibonacci
retracement line at $19.41 is perfectly splitting the gap from July 30th.
A pullback to that mark could effectively kill two birds with one stone
for EXPE. So, let's start there. It's not a huge move, but it's not bad
either.... and it will build a profit cushion if we decide to hang onto
the trade and fish for more gains when/if $19.41 is reached.
Side
note about Expedia - the company actually reported pretty strong results
yesterday, yet the stock started to implode a few days prior to the announcement.
I think this is a pretty clear case/example of 'buy the rumor, sell the
news'. But, given just how big the gain has been since early this year,
there could be a lot more profit-takers waiting in the wings.
Teleflex
Inc. (TFX)
The
nearby chart of Teleflex shares - despite showing the complete transition
from a bearish phase to a bullish phase - still doesn't quite do the
stock justice. I didn't have room to show you how the resistance line extends
all the way back to the middle of 2007.
For
those of you who read my comments fairly regularly, you'll know I'm a fan
of trading high-volume breakouts and breakdowns that occur simultaneously
with strong moves outside of wedges or triangles. That's what we're basically
seeing right now with Teleflex, but I didn't find this chart the way I
usually find those trade setups.
No,
TFX was put on my radar because one of my system-based signals (which scans
for accelerating volume and momentum trends) found it. As evidence of that
detailed scan, note the accumulation-distribution line has been reaching
new multi-year highs for a while, even though the stock hasn't - a great
pattern, but not one many people look for. That's the power of customizable
scanning.... it finds ideas nobody else is really thinking about. And believe
me, Teleflex is on very few radars.
As
for a target on Teleflex Inc. shares, let's just start with the simple
one of last year's peak around $67.00.
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