Technical Trade Alerts: Molina Healthcare (MOH), Phase Forward (PFWD) It's a bit speculative to be buying stocks in front of any Presidential address, but hey - given the current situation (oversold stocks and lots of stimulus chatter), the rewards could be well worth the risk.  Stocks have been sent lower in eight of the last ten sessions... a lot lower. The plunge could be considered excessive by anybody's standards though. So, merely being oversold right now offers up some rebound potential. Couple that with the fact that the Obama recovery plan is finally solidifying - and could completely gel when he speaks tonight - and the country may actually see a distant light at the end of the tunnel come tomorrow.  Though there will certainly be more ups and downs before the economy is actually on firmer footing, if President Obama can give us a warm-n-fuzzy feeling this evening then we've got a good shot at a short-term, euphoria-induced rally. Here are a couple of stocks that could lead such a bounce.    Phase Forward Inc. Phase Forward Inc. (NASDAQ: PFWD) may not be the cheapest stock out there among all the business service stocks, but what this small cap company lacks in value, the stock makes up for with its current chart. PFWD looks like it's itching to break out.      Company Name: Phase Forward Inc.  Stock Symbol : PFWD Trade Initiated: Feb. 24th, 2009 Current Price: $14.77 Avg. Volume (3 mo.): 441,841 52 Week Range: $9.01 - $22.99  Market Cap: $633.3M  Rating: Technical Trade The bullish signal here is a subtle one not too many people even monitor... the 100 day moving average line (grey, on our chart).  The 100 day average's importance to Phase Forward's chart is rooted on both sides of the fence. Not only was this line a support level in September, but was also resistance in January. Over the last four days, however, that resistance has started to break down - PFWD is now above that line for the first time in weeks. Simultaneously, we've seen the stock make higher lows while hitting a horizontal ceiling since November. The net effect of this action is the formation of a wedge shape... two of them actually, traced in blue on our chart. The higher lows, coupled with persistently bullish volume (as indicated by the rising accumulation-distribution line), may soon crack that ceiling and let PFWD move above the important $15.70 mark.  It doesn't hurt short-term traders that Phase Forward has continued to create long-term success. The P/E of 46.3 isn't overly-attractive on the surface, but this stock is likely to be trading mostly on its forecasted P/E of 22.8. Analysts are looking for earnings of 53 cents per share in 2009, and 64 cents in 2010. Is that a realistic projection given the environment? There's no reason why it wouldn't be.  Last quarter (the fourth quarter of 2008, and allegedly a terrible quarter for the economy), Phase Forward actually topped Q3's EPS by a penny, earning 13 cents per share. And talk about consistency! In each of the three quarters prior to last quarter, Phase Forward earned exactly 12 cents per share. Point being, the company is at least a reliable earner, which keeps them well positioned to meet analyst's forecasts.  As with all of our technical trade alerts, we're not going to issue a specific target. We will say, however, that September's and October's highs may be a point where you'd want to raise stops or start taking partial profits. We may offer more exit specifics in the blog when the time comes.   Molina Healthcare Inc. Molina Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:MOH), a small cap health care plan provider, has remained an impressive performer throughout even the worst part of the recession. Analysts expect - and it's a reasonable expectation - to see more bottom line growth this year and next.      Company Name: Molina Healthcare Inc Stock Symbol : MOH Trade Initiated: Feb. 24th, 2009 Current Price: $20.92 Avg. Volume (3 mo.): 321,523 52 Week Range: $16.12 - $35.65  Market Cap: $551.6M  Rating: Technical Trade Though the stock was beaten up with every other stock late last year, the recent performance is more reflective of the company's continued success; it should be the kind of stock the market seeks out first if investors are in even just a moderate buying mood.  Whether you're strictly a trader or only a long-term investor, you have to appreciate a legitimate sub-10 price-to-earnings ratio. And by legitimate, we mean a P/E that's not low simply because the stock's price just happened to fall a little more than earnings plummeted.  In Molina's case, earnings have remained steady throughout the economic turbulence of 2008... one of the semi-reliable benefits of being in the healthcare business. The company earned $2.25 per share in 2008, which topped 2007's results. The twelve-month P/E is 9.2 as a result. And, earnings projections for 2009 and 2010 are $2.30 and $2.52, respectively. That should be attractive to any value-seekers inspired by President Obama this evening. The actual short-term 'trade', however, was inspired by the stock's recent action.  After hitting a low of $16.22 in January, MOH promptly raced to a high of $22.74. While the 40% run was impressive, let's face it - it was also a little too much, too fast. The pullback on Monday wasn't as much alarming as it was a relief. Notice how the stock immediately turned higher again today though, once it retested the 20 day moving average line as support. In short, Molina's bigger picture momentum seems to have turned bullish - an idea confirmed by a bullish cross of the 20 day and 50 day moving average lines, and then reconfirmed by support being found at the 20 day line this afternoon. As with Phase Forward, we don't want to specify a target level just yet. Molina has a phenomenal amount of rebound room though, so you may be able to achieve a bigger-than-average winner from MOH if its full potential is unleashed. We'll provide updates in the blog.   Last Thoughts As we mentioned above, a great deal of these trades' success is predicated on at least encouraging words from President Obama this evening. We can't imagine him saying anything that's toxic, though you never really know. We think the potential upside is bigger than the downside, but how the market responds to him tomorrow will ultimately determine how well these trades do. We think it's a good risk though, all things considered.   China Energy Recovery Inc. Lands Some Post-Hillary Publicity Winning some attention within the investing world is nice when you're a publicly-traded company like China Energy Recovery Inc (CGYV). However, getting some publicity from your industry's news outlets - which are less concerned about your stock price - adds a layer of credibility. That's what makes Roger Ballentine's recent article for the www.renewableenergyworld.com site a relatively big deal... it presents the company to a new crowd that may actually generate some new business.  The article, "China Offers Tips on Using Energy More Efficiently", doesn't really tell our readers anything we didn't know or understand already. So, don't read it and expect to be shocked - it was written for newcomers who may not be familiar with the company.  The extra "umph" of the article is fueled by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to an energy-efficient power plant during her recent trip to China. Her brief tour brought some awareness to the growing trend and opportunity of clean energy; Ballentine's article simply provided new investors with an idea of how to invest in the trend.  I suspect that's the reason for yesterday's much-needed pop from CGYV shares. The stock had been treading water, but the weight of the market's decimation finally started to take a toll. CGYV fell from $1.85 to a low of $1.21 last week, but rebounded to close at $1.45 yesterday... the same day the article appeared on the Renewable Energy World site. Shares are up again today too, and I think the article is the reason for the traction.  My bottom line is still the same here though... I won't be totally happy until CGYV blasts past resistance at $2.00, and really $2.20.