Good Wednesday morning, one and all. Yes, it's another morning edition of the SCN newsletter, because waiting until the end of the day to deliver this news might be too late.
We noticed this morning one of our Featured Stocks recently attracted the attention of another small-cap research outfit, which pegged a target price on the stock that's a cool 127% higher than the closing price from Tuesday. If this doesn't get the market's attention, I don't know what will.
Remember Staffing 360 Solutions (STAF)? I'm willing to bet most of you do. This is the little IT staffing company we first started to keep tabs on back in mid-2014 when it announced its plans to grow its top line to $300 million in revenue per year. That was quite a big leap from the $17 million worth of business it had generated the quarter before we began our coverage. But, given how the top line has grown in the meantime, we have little doubt it'll get to that mark in the near future. For perspective, earlier this month the company pre-announced it did $43 million worth of business last quarter. That's an annualized revenue rate of about $170 million, and it's still growing.
Almost needless to say, we haven't been disappointed. It turns out we weren't the only ones who noticed how well the growth strategy is progressing.
Earlier this week, Greenridge Global Equity Research initiated coverage on Staffing 360 Solutions, calling it a buy, and setting a target price of $6.00 for STAF. That's 127% better than the stock's current value near $2.64. Better yet, after reading through Greenbridge's thorough research, I'm more convinced than ever this company is simply underestimated, and sooner than later will get its due respect.
Most of you are already pretty familiar with STAF, so I'm not going to go through the whole spiel. I'll just refer you back to our most recent overarching look. The only thing we want to do today is show you the fiscal progress chart we've maintained for Staffing 360 Solutions over the course of the past several quarters, and throw in a new batch of perspective.
We don't have all of the past quarter's numbers yet - just the top line. The rest of those numbers should be posted sometime next week though. Even so, you can still see while the top line is getting pretty big pretty fast, the other numbers are getting bigger and/or better at an even faster rate.
In any case, it's one of the missing numbers (so far) we want to focus on today, as it's largely how Greenridge Global came up with its price target.
STAF isn't producing a net profit yet. But, that's ok. If you waited until it was producing net income to take on a stake, you've probably waited too long. It's all about the trajectory. You own a stock for where it's going rather than where it is.
Still, until Staffing 360 Solutions is producing GAAP net income, how does one value it? Greenridge Global uses -- and rightfully so -- the company's EBITDA figure, and with just a little math can come up with a fair value for STAF.
The formula Greenridge's William Gregozeski uses is simply 7.0 times the research outfit's twelve-month EBITDA outlook of just a tad more than $6.6 million. That's about $46.5 million, translating into an justifiable value of $6.00 per share.
The approach and math jibes with our own, though we'll go ahead and also point out that STAF presently trades at only 0.7 times its trailing twelve-month revenue, versus the market-norm of about 2.3. From that perspective you could argue Staffing 360 Solutions is worth 30 times its current price. We'll start with Greenbridge's target of $6.00 though, and have that price/sales ratio discussion another time down the road. We've got a more important item to close with today.
It's been mentioned at the site more than a few times, but it bears repeating now -- the staffing industry, and the IT staffing industry in particular, is poised for tremendous growth in the foreseeable future, and that rising tide bodes very well for Staffing 360 Solutions.
If you've followed the sociopolitical rhetoric it would be easy to conclude what measly job growth we've seen in the past few years has been made even less impressive by the fact most of the new jobs have been less-than-great-career types of jobs. And to be fair, there's a kernel of truth in what the naysayers suggest. A closer look is merited though, because a closer look clarifies that some areas are seeing tremendous job growth. One of the #1 hot spots? You guessed it ... IT jobs.
According to the BLS, software and developer positions will grow by 19% between 2014 and 2024, making it one of the nation's fastest-growing non-medical career choices. When you broaden the data out to "computer and mathematical occupations", the ten-year growth projection is 13.1%, which IS the second-highest growth pace among all jobs (second only to healthcare).
There's more.
Late last year, technology industry information provider CompTIA noted in its 2016 outlook "Based on how 2015 data is tracking, the year could record the highest IT job growth rate in over a decade." The outlook is underscored by an interesting piece of data - while the nation's overall unemployment rate is right around 5%, within the IT world, the unemployment rate is a mere 2.6%.
It's not tough to connect the dots. Staffing 360 Solutions specializes in one of the very few arenas that's showing real growth right now. The IT employment scene is one of the few currently described as a seller's market rather than a buyer's market, meaning there's more demand for IT workers than supply. That's a pretty nice situation for STAF to be in.
If you've been on the sidelines up until this point, I have a feeling the $6.00 target price is going to be something of a wakeup call for the market regarding STAF.
Here's the press release, which will take you to the Greenridge report.
Greenridge Global Issues Buy Rating and $6 Price Target on Staffing 360 Solutions, Inc.
NEW YORK, NY--(Marketwired - March 30, 2016) - Greenridge Global Equity Research has initiated coverage on Staffing 360 Solutions, Inc. (STAF), an international staffing services provider embarking on a rollup acquisition model with a near-term goal of reaching $300 million in annual revenue, with its newly released research report that includes a Buy Rating and a $6.00 price target.
Greenridge Global's Report can be viewed at: http://tinyurl.com/h7lajjg
Staffing 360 Solutions focuses on staffing companies located in the United States and abroad in the United Kingdom that service one or more of its five pillars: Accounting & Finance, IT, Engineering, Administration and Light Industrial. Staffing 360 Solutions looks for acquisition candidates that are located in the same geographic region, have a strong owner/operator, and are larger, in size, in terms of revenue (targeting at least $20 million in annual revenue).
In Greenridge Global's report, analyst, William Gregozeski, CFA, highlighted a number of key points to consider when reviewing Staffing 360 Solutions:
Staffing 360 Solutions is embarking on a roll-up strategy, having acquired seven white-collar staffing firms with a mix of cash, stock and notes/earn-outs in the last three years. Management believes it can continue building the business through organic and acquired growth, potentially becoming an attractive acquisition target by a major along the way.
Pending the availability of cash from a financing, management has several staffing companies in its acquisition pipeline that, if all were to close, would bring STAF over its initial target of $300 million in annual revenue.
Staffing 360 Solutions has an experienced management team that employs its Intelligent Integration approach to its acquisitions, which in conjunction with selecting higher margin targets in fast growing staffing segments, has yielded organic revenue growth above industry averages.
Staffing 360 Solutions trades at more than a two-thirds discount to comparable smaller publicly listed staffing companies and multiples paid for privately held staffing companies. We expect the Company will move more in line with its peer group in the coming quarters.
Trading in STAF is extremely illiquid, as it currently has roughly 350,000 shares in the float. The registration of all remaining shares and share equivalents, along with the sale of new shares should help build a more liquid market that is less subject to the big percentage swings it has seen in trading since the company's reverse split.
The increase in the fully diluted share count will likely be somewhat minimized when Staffing 360 Solutions completes a placement in the coming months on account of the roughly 90,000 warrants exercisable at $18.00 expiring in the next few months and the 500,000 warrants exercisable at $20.00 expiring in one year.
William Gregozeski said in his valuation of Staffing 360 Solutions, "We are initiating coverage of Staffing 360 Solutions with a Buy rating and $6.00 target price. Despite showing above average organic industry growth rates, the Company is valued at a significant discount to its peers, especially on an EV/Revenue basis. While it looks fairly priced on a trailing EV/aEBITDA metric, we note it is skewed given STAF's recent move to positive aEBITDA and expect the continued growth in aEBITDA will be reflected with a higher stock price. We believe the Company will continue to trade at discounts to its peers until it works through it cash obligations and increases its aEBITDA margin. Our target price is based on an EV/aEBITDA multiple of 7.0 times our forward twelve month aEBITDA estimate of $6.65 million."
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