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VOLUME
03: ISSUE 63
What's
driving CEL-SCI higher?
Biotech
company CEL-SCI (AMEX: CVM)
closed at $1.36, Monday. When we mentioned, on September
5th, that the shares had likely bottomed, they were trading at
72 cents. The 52-week high is right here--$1.36. Technically, if
that level is breached with conviction, the shares could rise to between
$1.50 and $2. Recent information has been good, but as at September 5th,
nothing new of real substance had been made That said, something
is driving the volume and, by extension, the share price higher.
On September
19th, we looked at CVM's progress against that of biotech Introgen
(NASDAQ: INGN).
As the bloom came off recent trial news at INGN, its shares have pulled
back from $11 to below $9.00, Monday. Conversely, CEL-SCI has been powering
ahead.
CVM to the core...
Although
the shares are crossing the tape at their old high, CVM has shown itself
to be a good trader. If you have profits of 50 cents a share or more, letting
some go to lock in a profit would be prudent. That said, best to always
keep a core CVM position. Given that the stock has moved from 70 cents
to $1.36 in just over a month on little news, subsequent information concerning
substantive developments can be expected to be viewed favorably by the
market--with the share price acting accordingly.
There are a few reasons for CVM's
recent strength beyond simply the standard euphemism of more buyers than
sellers. First, management is commencing a European road trip the week
of October 13th and will be seeing major financial institutions, money
managers and analysts in Scandinavia, Paris and London. You may recall
management did a tour in July and has a policy of doing these trips every
six months. Needless to say, the more people who hear CVM's maturing story
and put the company on their radar screens, the more potential buyers.
Some slight Insider buying.
Second, there has been some decent
insider buying recently. Confidence from within is always a positive development.
There has been some insider selling too, but the insider purchases have
been more broad based and number about 150,000 shares in October so far.
Further, with the conversion of the convertible debentures by two financial
institutions into common stock, there is no more convertible debt outstanding.
Third, and perhaps most exciting,
is the company's discovery of a new efficacy for its flagship drug Multikine.
According to CEO Geert Kersten in his September 25th letter to shareholders:
We believe that we have just uncovered
a new mechanism of action of Multikine® that may lead to a marked increase
in the cancer patients' chance of survival. This new finding, due to be
published in detail, indicates that our immunotherapy drug Multikine recruits
to the tumor site immune cells that the tumor does not typically "see".
As such, the tumor's defense mechanisms are rendered ineffective or less
effective in shutting down the patient's own anti-tumor immune response.
The recruitment of these cells to the tumor by Multikine leads to tumor
destruction as was seen in a well-controlled pathology study.
Multikine allows more types of immune
cells to be effective in supercharging the body's natural anti-tumor response
than was previously thought. Obviously, the more types and the greater
the number of immune cells that can get to the tumor, the better the chance
of success. And survival. While yet to be clinically proven, this is exciting
stuff.
Spec potential grows
We've said it before: although still
speculative and at a formative stage, CVM represents an opportunity to
participate in a suite of therapies and drugs that could significantly
affect the way cancer is treated. Further, with the company's CEL-1000
development for the treatment of smallpox, West Nile as well as various
bio-terrorism agents, there is plenty of potential to go around. CEL-1000
has already shown itself effective against herpes simplex, malaria and
cancer in animals. CVM's work in the treatment of HPV (Human papillomavirus),
the world's leading sexually transmitted disease, as well as HPV/HIV co-infection
which can lead to conditions such as cervical cancer--the second leading
global killer of women-- one can see that the potential grows.
CVM has made extraordinary strides
in the past year as the company works hard to get the story out, secure
financing and broaden the base of efficacy for its therapies.
The fact that the shares are acting
well, I suspect, reflects those efforts.
Got comments, questions or suggestions?
Send 'em on over:
Editor@smallcapnetwork.com
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