News Details – Smallcapnetwork
One Bullish Day Does Not a Trend Make...Except for Maybe Cadence Pharma
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Good Friday afternoon folks. We hope the week went well for you. And, if you've been reading the newsletter for at least a couple of weeks - and acting on the ideas we send your way - then this week should have been a very good one for you. How's that? Because Cadence Pharmaceuticals (CADX) popped on Thursday, leading to what's currently about a 10% gain from when we pointed it out to you back on the 6th. It was up nearly 15% this morning from the prices we were seeing when we first pointed it out, but it peeled back a bit this afternoon. What spurred the big move? Nothing directly from the company, but rather, a ton of bullish buzz about Cadence that's been accumulating for a while; it all just hit a critical mass on Thursday. The company deserves the attention, however. Of course, the big move sets up a question..... now what? Is this the kind of thing that someone should use as a profit-taking opportunity, or is this a sign of bigger things to come? I can't tell you what to do - only you know your situation. But, I can say if it were me, I'd at least make a point of scooting up a safety-stop to protect any unrealized gains I'd scored so far. On that note, it's worth reminding you even though I can't effectively become a pure stock-picking resource for you (complete with ins and outs), the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity can. In fact, that's the whole point of their newsletter - to tell you which stocks are most apt to move, and how to play those moves to your maximum benefit. Better still, the SCN EO is offering a free two-week trial to their service. I don't know how long that offer's going to last, but I do know it's not going to last forever. In the meantime, 'free' is about as affordable as it gets. They even added a new trade today that's not too late to get in on. You can learn more about it here. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Anyway, the market may have closed a little higher today, but it's hardly cause for celebration. Stocks still closed down for the week - the first losing week in the past four, and the second losing week in the past twelve. Stocks are still overextended too, and remain ripe for garden-variety correction. That's the short way of saying nothing's really changed for our stance from yesterday. We ultimately think this market is going to have to pull back and burn off its current overbought pressure. Had the market followed through on either of its bullish efforts this week, we might be willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. But, that's not how it happened. The bulls petered out before any rally ever got a chance to get things going again. We'll take that clue at face value. Our downside target is still the lower 20-day Bollinger band, currently at 1496 (though rising). Just to better explain why that level is our mental target, we've zoomed out on our chart of the S&P 500 to show you how that lower band line was a big floor in late December and again in late February. A move to that line would only be about a 5% dip from the recent peak, which isn't really a big deal. But hey - the market was so wobbly this week, nothing would surprise us come Monday. We'll be updating the outlook then. On Deck OK, just like last Friday (and probably every Friday from now on) we want to make something of a mental roadmap to navigate the coming week.... earnings, economic data, and any relevant biotech announcements. The coming week is likely going to serve up more biotech catalysts than usual. On the radar are A.P. Pharma (APPA), Biogen Idec (BIIB), and ZIOPHARM (ZIOP). For A.P. Pharma, Wednesday the 27th is supposed to be the PDUFA date for its chemotherapy-induced nausea treatment. James Brumley tells the story in more detail here, noting "APF530 is being aimed at a very specific case of chemotherapy-induced vomiting and nausea.... highly emetogenic, delayed nausea or vomiting, for which there is no viable treatment. Aloxi is the closest treatment, but even it can't handle the delayed vomiting and nausea." Biogen Idec's Multiple Sclerosis drug BG-12 has its PDUFA meeting on Thursday, the 28th. This is the same drug Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) was asking the Food and Drug Administration to delay, suggesting the drug had safety problems. Oh, it just so happens that Teva sells an MS drug of its own, called Copaxone. Perhaps Teva's worry isn't as altruistic as they'd like us to believe. ZIOPHARM isn't up for a PDUFA decision. Friday, the 29th, is just the date the newest batch of Phase 3 data is due for palifosfamide... a first-line metastatic soft tissue sarcoma therapy. The company will almost certainly post those results to the As for earnings, we don't see anything earth-shattering on the horizon. There are two names we'll be watching closely though. One of them is Dollar General (DG). The pros say the discount retailer is going to earn $0.90 per share, up from last year's $0.87. That'll be telling, but what will mean even more to us is any accompanying language or outlook. Remember, Dollar General was and is one of the names apt to be adversely affected by the increase in payroll taxes this year. We've not seen any evidence to that end yet, and we don't expect consumers to actually crimp down on spending this year (even though they said they would). But, Dollar General can either confirm or dispute our theory with Monday's numbers. We'll also be watching SAIC (SAI) closely on Monday. John Udovich dissected the defense contractor pretty well on Thursday. As it turns out, the sequester was more bark than bite for the company, at least so far. On the economic front, the fireworks start on Tuesday with last month's durable orders number. Taking transportation out of the equation, orders should have grown by 2.3% in February. That's not Tuesday's biggest market-mover, however. We're even more interested in the pace of new home sales for February. Like we said on Thursday, the housing market is improving whether we want to believe it or not. In fact, it's been improving for more than two years. If we really did see new home sales reach an annual pace of 437,000 last month, that's going to tie January's level... which was a multi-year high. Again, it all says things are getting better, at least for real estate. Pending home sales may pound that point home on Wednesday, if they were really up by the expected 4.5% for February. We'll get Q4's final GDP reading on Thursday, though at this point it's not apt to budge, and it's old news now anyway. That's it for today, and this week. Time for you to wrap things up for the week too, and go enjoy some great college basketball. Oregon (12) topping Oklahoma (5) in the first round of the tourney was pretty amazing, but how about Harvard (14) over New Mexico (3)? Between that big win and spawning Jeremy Lin just two years ago, you gotta wonder what they're putting in the water in Cambridge. Anyway, I don't know the last time I've seen four #1 seeds that were all this stunningly good and equally matched. Still, I have to lean towards' perennial powerhouse Kansas taking it all. Have a great weekend, and we'll talk to you Monday.