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VOLUME
02:
ISSUE 28
SmallCap Digest Weekend Edition:
Investing Patiently
Yesterday,
a significant milestone was achieved by
Axcan Pharmaceuticals (AXCA).
The company has filed Photofrin in the European Union for an expanded indication
in Barrett's esophagus. For this indication, Photofrin already approved
in the US and EU for lung and esophageal cancer, will be known as Photobarr.
Photobarr also received EU orphan medicinal status,
which grants the company 10 years of marketing exclusivity. The European
filing is a good indicator that the U.S. sNDA filing for Barrett's is on
track in the second quarter of this year. FDA approval is expected
in the second half of 2002.
Photobarr is going to be a key growth driver in
Axcan's pipeline. It is estimated that US and European approvals for Barrett's
will translate into peak sales of $75 million dollars. Considering
that sales of the drug in 2001 were approximately $10 million dollars the
best for Axcan is yet to come. Our short term trading
alert was issued March 25 when the company was trading at $12.15
per share. In only fourteen trading the days Axcan has gained
23.8%
to
close at its 52 week high of $15.05
Friday. If you owned Axcan
after the initial trading alert the immediate results were less than exciting.
However, those who were patient were able to realize some fantastic gains.
As much as we all wish the
equities we owned would skyrocket and create parabolic charts, it is rarely
the case.
For SmallCap Digest subscribers this most
recent development has a hidden bonus. Diomed (DIO),
a
company
we profiled in February supplies Axcan with lasers and fibers for
use with Photofrin. We are in the process of confirming that Photobarr
will indeed use Diomed's lasers and fibers for the treatment of Barrett's
esophagus. If this proves to be the case then Diomed could experience
positive upside in revenues and even an accelerated path to profitability.
Diomed's performance has been very disappointing
currently down over 40% from the time
the company was profiled at $6.95 per share. The fundamentals
have so far remained intact. Factors are integral for the success
of Diomed is the roll out of EVLT and additional drug approvals in the
PDT industry that would require the company's lasers and fibers.
Both of these events have come into fruition so the final step is corporate
performance. Investors that purchase the stock at the current price
of $4.04 per share have an incredible opportunity to reap some above
average gains.
Cross
Media (XMM)
had
an eventful week. A
civil action filed by the Federal Trade Commission alleges magazine telephone
sales operations violated legal requirements. The company's stock
moved down opened on Wednesday at $10.50 per share but promptly
closed the days at its high. The action in the stock suggests that
the complaint filed by the FTC may not that big of a deal relative to Cross
Media decline.
Investors that purchased shares of Cross Media
this week really found themselves with a "blue light special".
Our most recent short term trading alert was issued
on Pharmacyclics (PCYC)
April
7 at a price of $7.12 per share. The company makes for an
attractive short term trading alert because it has $120 million in cash
and a market cap under this number. Short term catalysts include
an FDA filing and a potential buyout of the company. The timing on
these catalysts is unknown but the overall consensus is that Pharmacyclics
needs to improve shareholder value and they need to do it now.
$120 million affords the company close to three
years of capital. With four drugs in the FDA process focusing on
over 15 treatments the chances of an FDA approval in the future seems very
bright.
We are a bit surprised the company did not make
an announcement that it was presenting at the 93rd Annual Meeting of
the American Association for Cancer Research April 6-10 in San Francisco.
Any news of positive testing results would have moved the stock up nicely.
Since this scenario did not play out according to plan the next focus is
some news from the FDA. In the event that the news is the negative
the stock could drop to the $6.00 level. On the other hand positive
news can send the stock to the double digit levels.
Risk and reward are the factors that investors
must weigh before making any stock purchase. In a perfect world everything
we buy appreciates in value. During the nineties this actually happened
for a few years. Subsequently the world was anointed with thousands of
people who had the Midas touch. This Midas touch is now a form of
portfolio leprosy.
The bottom line is that investors need to put investment
ideas on the risk/reward scale and decide for themselves if the investment
makes sense.
7
D I S C
L A I M E R :
The
SmallCap Digest is an independent electronic publication committed to providing
our readers with factual information on selected publicly traded
companies. SmallCap Digest is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer.
All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and
other pertinent criteria with a view toward maximizing the upside
potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible.
Moreover, as detailed below, this publication accepts compensation from
third party consultants and/or companies which it features for the publication
and circulation of the SmallCap Digest or representation on SmallCapNetwork.net.
Likewise, this newsletter is owned by TGR, LLC. To the degrees enumerated
herein, this newsletter should not be regarded as an independent
publication.
Click
Here to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered,
or visit the following web address: http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/compensation_disclosure.html
for our full compensation disclosure and http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/short_term_alerts.html
for Trading Alerts compensation and disclosure. In the interest of
full disclosure, we inform you that one of our editors owns shares of PCYC
in his own personal account, purchased in the open market. Our editor is
free to buy and sell the stock any time at his own discretion. This should
be viewed as a potential conflict of interest. TGR Group LLC has
been paid a fee of $50,000 in cash a by Mohammed Patel, an individual,
for publishing information on Diomed Corp for a period of one year.
All statements
and expressions are the sole opinions of the editors and are subject
to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a
company in the newsletter is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or
sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information
to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the
accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein.
The profiles,
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may contain forward-looking statements relating to the expected capabilities
of the companies mentioned herein.
THE READER
SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND DO THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE INVESTING
IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED. INVESTING IN SECURITIES IS SPECULATIVE
AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE INFORMATION FOUND IN THIS PROFILE
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at http://www.sec.gov and/or the National
Association of Securities Dealers ("NASD") at http://www.nasd.com
. We also strongly recommend that you read the SEC advisory to investors
concerning Internet Stock Fraud, which can be found at http://www.sec.gov/consumer/cyberfr.htm
. Readers can review all public filings by companies at the SEC's EDGAR
page. The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at
its web site.