You know what the scariest part about today's big pullback was? It was that it unfurled for no particular reason. There was no dire news. It just happened, and it happened to kick off the new week. We could chalk Friday's selling up to pre-weekend jitters, but with the new week here we might have expected a new-week buyback. It didn't happen.
And yet, though traders tipped their bearish hand today, it's not like we actually broke down. The S&P 500 is still above a major floor, and it's not like there was a ton of volume behind the selling.
This could be a long October, if investors can't make a decision.
There was some speculation that today's weakness was driven by worries that tonight's Presidential debate is going to end badly for stocks no matter who "wins." I can see that... a little. It's not like we didn't know the debate wasn't happening a while back though. What prompted the sudden worry?
As we've said before, the market is a big Rorschach test. It's not so much what it's doing that you have to gauge, but how the market is responding to news or responding to non-news that can indicate how traders are thinking.
Still, it's not like the market moved past the point of no return.
We'll look at it in detail in a moment. The first thing we want to get out of the way is a look at some news from one of our Featured Stocks, and a look at some news that impacts another of our highlighted names.
On the news-front, Sack Lunch Productions (SAKL) has hired Eventbrite to sell tickets to its public events, and will also tap Eventbrite to coordinate the ticketing and admission process at all of its events.
Those of you who have purchased a ticket from the Eventbrite know this is a big deal. Not only has the organization mastered the nuances of getting such transactions done, the site has become a venue in and of itself for people looking for things to do. Listing Sack Lunch's events at the website is apt to drive more ticket sales than SAKL may have generated on its own, not to mention take a logistical burden off of its plate so it can focus on managing the events it hosts.
Matthew Briar takes a closer look at the matter today, but if you're not yet familiar with Sack Lunch Productions, this is the SCN's first look.
The other item worth mentioning today is that GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) reported some very encouraging Phase 3 results for seizure-prevention drug Epediolex today.
What's that got to do with anything? After all, not only is GW Pharmaceuticals not one of our Featured Stocks, but it's also not a holding for any of our premium services.
Mathew Briar served up the deeper insight on the matter today, so I'll refer you to his comments for the full scoop. But, long story made short, the same underlying science that's making GW Pharmaceuticals an increasingly interesting biopharma investment is the same science that Featured Stock Vitality Biopharma (VBIO) is using to develop its drug pipeline.
That science is cannabidiol... a form of cannabis that's preferable to traditional medical marijuana, which contains the THC that causes a "high" and therefore makes it tough to use as a medical treatment. Cannabidiol contains little to no THC, therefore allowing for higher, more effective doses. The fact that GWPH is doing so well with its work bodes well for VBIO, which is doing similar work but has more than 40 patents of its own for its cannabidiol portfolio.
By the way, VBIO continues to build up some steam, aiming to make good on the promise of a rally after a couple of stagnant weeks in early September. Like we said in Friday's edition, this is a stairstep pattern, and it looks like the stock is ready to move to the next tier.
Now, about the market...
Today was rough, but not so rough that stocks moved past the point of no return.
The chart of the S&P 500 below tells the tale. Following through on Friday's weakness, the market gapped lower today and then kept on selling off. The gap could beckon the market higher again, but even if it doesn't happen right away the S&P 500 is still above a key line at 2120. Until the market really breaks down and cracks support levels, there's still no telling where this is going to go.
All the same, James Brumley over at the Under the Radar Movers newsletter made a great point today about preparing for the worst even as you hope for the best. He also put the market's current vulnerability in perspective, saying:
"Normally the S&P 500 gains about 3.5% during the fourth quarter. But, it is able to make that advance usually because a September dive starts it out with room for a rally. Since there's been no major setback - at least not yet - it's tough to see the S&P 500 moving up to the 2225 area where that typical 3.5% "should" carry it.
Still, we just can't help but anticipate a downside move, so we're going to go ahead and start talking about likely targets today.
The first and most likely landing spot is 2045, where a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line awaits. That would be about a 7% pullback from the recent peak, which frankly would be plenty palatable. The 200-day moving average line at 2063 could also be a floor, and if things got really hairy, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line at 1955 could come into play. That would be a 10.8% pullback from the recent peak, which sounds scary, but would be a huge buying opportunity. At that level, the S&P 500's trailing P/E falls to 19.1 (based on Q3 estimates), which isn't "low," but would be much lower than it's been of late.
We don't plan on getting that lucky though."
We've mentioned this before but it bears repeating now - the media can paint a misleading picture in the name of drawing a crowd. That misleading picture, however, can cause investors to make bad decisions. The Under the Radar Movers team consistently provides great perspective on what's really going on with the market, letting its readers make intelligent, informed decisions rather than emotional ones.
If you're tired of the noise and want simple, actionable, realistic advice, the URM newsletter is the best there is.