Remember what we were saying yesterday about the market approaching some key near-term support levels that could prove to be a bullish problem for the bears? Yeah, well, right on cue, today's weakness was turned around to become strength again at that floor. Stocks still closed in the red, but with the way the floor stepped up to the plate and took care of business, we have little choice but to think the market is slipping deeper into the mud, getting less and less traction in either direction.
We'll hash it out as we always do. First though, we want to point you to some commentaries at the site you may have missed. We've saved the best for last today, though, which actually isn't our analysis and outlook for the market after factoring in Thursday's action.
From the Site
As a reminder, as much commentary as we stuff into the daily newsletter you're reading right now, there's even more great - and actionable - commentary being posted at the website every day. If you're not checking in at the website on a daily basis, you're missing some great stuff.
With that being said, there were a handful of write-ups posted today we felt were too good to not make mention of here in the newsletter. In no certain order....
FONU2 Puts Another Revenue-Bearing Feather In Its Cap (VIAB, LGF, FONU): I don't know how many of you are following the story, but this up-and-coming movie studio is thinking quite strategically. Rather than just focus on the proverbial winning lottery ticket way down the road, FONU2 (aka Moon River Studios) is also finding ways to drive some related revenue in the meantime that will ultimately help put the bigger-picture goal in reach.
Small Cap Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) - Endgame or Not? ANR, ACI & KOL: Coal miners continue to get pushed around, as do coal prices. Peter Graham takes a look at all of them - and at Peabody in particular - weighing what's apt to be in store for this beleaguered name.
OncoSec Medical Quietly Clears a Hurdle, But For All the Right Reasons (ONCS, EXEL, BIOC): Last but not least, though it was actually penned and posted yesterday, Bryan Murphy had a great technical observation about ONCS that's still relevant today. If you don't know anything about the company and/or have been biding your time on a trade, you might not want to wait too much longer.
Don't forget - the SCN lets you publish your thoughts and opinions about the market and individual stocks. If you write something that has a wide enough value, we may even feature it right here in the daily newsletter.
That's 0% Shocking
In Wednesday's newsletter we told you the market's indices were getting close to their lower Bollinger bands, which could potentially serve as an end (even if just a temporary one) to the pullback. Sure enough, the S&P 500 only had to kiss its lower Bollinger band today for the bulls to start testing the waters again. Take a look.
You can also see the VIX bumped into its 20-day moving average line and was stopped cold there, which also has bullish implications for the market... even if just on a temporary basis.
Again, each day we don't see a major breakdown means we're one day closer to starting a fourth quarter rally without the benefit of a big pullback right in front of it. We'd rather have the pullback, just so we can scoop up some stocks on the cheap.
The good news/bad news is, even if the touch of the lower Bollinger band sparks some strength, there's still a big ceiling around 2000 that could and should put a fairly quick end to the rally effort. We may still get a shot at a true capitulation.
On that note, here's the weekly chart of the NASDAQ Composite. That long-term support line (red, dashed) has been broken, even with today's intraday recovery move. If it closes under it again tomorrow to end the week under that floor, that would be a big victory for the bears.
The right thing to do here is... nothing. While the shape of today's bar suggests a reversal effort is already underway, (1) it's not got much room to run anyway, and (2) I'm not entirely convinced the bulls are as bullish as they seem to be today. The ONLY thing working in the market's favor today was the touch of the lower Bollinger band line, but that may not be enough in the grand scheme of things. Let's wait and see how this all unfurls. The momentum is still technically bearish even if we did get a modest bullish hint today.
Time to Pile Back Into Homebuilders
Was everybody listening back on September 18th when we said water utility stocks, of all things, were going higher even if the broad market was going lower? Hope so. Care to guess what one of today's best-performing groups was? You got it - water utility stocks. They were up about 0.9%, which isn't "buy a Ferrari" money, but it's pretty darn good all things considered. At the very least owning some of these names would have been a fruitful hedge against marketwide weakness of late. Since that call after Friday's close, the Dow Jones Water Utility Index is up about 1.5% while the S&P 500 is down about 1.5%.
Based on what I see, I think there's more upside left to realize from water utility names. Like we said nearly a week ago, it's all part of a time of year that favors utility stocks. Water utility stocks are leading the charge this year.
It's nickels and dimes, but over the course of the year, nickels and dimes add up.
In any case, I didn't come here to gloat (much) about picking an obscure bullish industry. I only brought up the water utility thing to make the point that just because the broad market is in a funk doesn't mean every group of stocks is. In fact, we're turning bullish again on a familiar face we had to break up with - temporarily - just a few days ago.
But first, we have to set the stage.
Most of you will know we've actually been bullish on homebuilders for pretty much the whole year. We've largely stood alone in that mindset, but as we make a point of sharing with you several times a month, we don't flinch every time we get a piece of economic data we don't like. Rather, we look at ALL the relevant data and look at its LONG TERM TREND before passing judgment. And as it turns out, we got another piece of evidence today confirming the long-term trend for homebuilders still looks good.
That data is simple enough. On Thursday morning, we learned the number of new homes sold last month reached a pace of 552,000 units. That's the best showing in seven years; the pros were only looking for 515,000. Here's that data, along with the other relevant data that collectively bodes well for homebuilders.
We hate to be the ones to say we told you so back in January, but, we told you so.
With that being said, some of you may recall we specifically suggested locking in gains on homebuilder stocks back on August 18th. We hope you did so. The Dow Jones Homebuilder Index fell 4% in the meantime. That was never a long-term bearish call, however. In fact, in light of the drop from these stocks and today's data, we're officially bullish on these names - the pullback seems to have run its course.
It's admittedly tough to be bullish about much of anything immediately after hearing a mostly-cautious discussion about the broad market; the market's tide pushes most stocks around with it. I can honestly say, though, the big trade-worthy trends we tend to hunt for are the ones that look like they'll pan out regardless of what the overall market does. Right now, that's homebuilders.
I know some of you have been asking for individual stock picks based on these bigger, industry-based or sector-based themes. I'd like to give them to you, but honestly, I'm not sure we'd be doing you justice by doing so. The Elite Opportunity is set up so much better for stock picks, not just because it's delivered in the middle of the trading day, but also because John Monroe and his crew have the time and resources to do so much more research and monitoring. If you want good trading ideas with the right amount of due diligence and follow-up, a subscription to the EO us undoubtedly your best solution. Try it out. You'll see. Go here, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/