VOLUME
01: ISSUE 02
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info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com
Dow
Jones
8847.56
NASDAQ
1498.80
S
& P 500
1040.94
Russell
2000
404.87
Dear
SmallCap Network Member,
WEEKEND EDITION LOOKING AHEAD: U.S.
equities spent the past week on the mend, along
with the psyche of the nation. Interesting parallel's
between the current situation and the early 1960's
are already being drawn.
In 1962, America faced off against the U.S.S.R.,
a burgeoning superpower attempting to place nuclear
warheads in Cuba capable of reaching New York
or Washington, DC in minutes. While not a criminal,
the villain of the day was Nikita Kruschev, who
boldly promised that the Soviet Union would "bury"
the United States.
President John F. Kennedy and his clan hunkered
down in the White House and showed historic resolve.
America faced the fear of global nuclear destruction
head on. Stocks were in a bear market as we embarked
on what became a very lengthy "war" against the
Soviet Union and Communism. Ultimately, we were
successful.
Today, we face a different type of enemy. Certainly
one that doesn't have nearly the resources the
Soviet Union had in those days. The stock market
now trades "ex" the "peace" dividend according
to the mainstream media. As a nation under attack,
who could doubt our determination, fortitude or
will to succeed in the face of this latest threat.
Unity and a positive outlook will be as important
today as they were yesterday. Even in the face
of these new threats, the outlook and the will
of the American people is as strong, maybe even
stronger than ever.
The most important trait necessary to achieve
outstanding investment results is patience, followed
by discipline. Just because micro and small cap
stocks have a higher degree of risk than blue
chips doesn't mean the approach to owning them
is any less calculated.
Fear and greed remain two of the most prevalent
traits that adversely affect the performance of
most individual investors. Lately, investors large
and small have been selling stocks in an effort
to alleviate their fears. To help you avoid such
pitfalls, we invite you to review the TRADING
STRATEGIES section of the SmallCap
Network web site.
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be removed, please click
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FIVE
FACTORS THAT COULD AFFECT PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
IN THE NEXT TWELVE MONTHS.
1) INTEREST RATES WILL GO LOWER AND SHOULD
REMAIN LOW.
The Federal Reserve's biggest fear is inflation.
The recent crisis has likely removed this
fear as a major policy "driver" over the next
six to twelve months. The question will be,
how low can rates go?
2) EXPECT A CONGRESSIONAL DEBATE ON CUTTING
THE CAPITAL GAINS TAX. No tax is a greater
growth inhibitor than the capital gains tax.
More than 50% of Americans now own stocks.
Expect the liberal argument of "the rich getting
richer" to be thrown out the window.
3) MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS and AIR SAFETY
is back at the top of the Administration's
agenda revised agenda. The U.S. must allocate
the resources to develop solutions to secure
our airspace. Many small companies (and certain
large ones) will likely benefit from the effort
to make this happen.
4) EXPECT CORPORATE TAX CUTS in an
effort to jump start the economy, create jobs,
and alleviate the recent jump in unemployment.
No government action could do more to get
many displaced Americans back into the work
force.
5) TECHNOLOGY WILL MAKE A COMEBACK.
America is the world leader in technology
development. Even though the bursting of the
tech bubble led to the current bear market,
our world leadership in this vital sector
cannot be denied.
The current bear market is the third longest
and fourth deepest on record. Today's GDP
numbers for the second quarter showed the
economy grew 0.3%, two tenths higher than
the number most analysts had revised lower
over the last few weeks. That notwithstanding,
third quarter GDP numbers will probably drop
us into a recession.
This evidence lends credibility to the argument
that an economic recovery probably would have
begun in the fourth quarter. Such a recovery
has likely been been pushed into next year.
Consumer confidence has taken a major hit
and needs some time and additional "incentives"
to recover fully. So U.S. automakers have
unveiled plans to offer interest-free financing
for new car buyers and Nordstrom has announced
plans for an "unprecedented" Fall sale. We
may not be out of the proverbial woods yet,
but we are certainly on our way!
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