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VOLUME 08 : ISSUE 86
In
This Edition...
* A
Recession is a Matter of Geography for Spicy Pickle
*
China Energy Recovery's Litmus Test
*
Bio-Matrix - Still Going
A
Recession is a Matter of Geography
What
do you do when your local economy grinds to a halt, disrupting your aggressive
growth plans? A lot of small cap companies have been like deer caught in
headlights this year. A few of them, however, made a smart choice
- they moved their attention to geographies where the economy didn't
stink.
What was sewn internationally is now being reaped.
If
you thought Spicy
Pickle's (OTCBB: SPKL) growth plans had been put on ice, you weren't
alone. At the end of 2007 we were expecting a new store to open about every
week. When the recession kicked in though, most of those openings were
put on hold. It wasn't surprising or unusual given the environment - that's
just the cyclical nature of the beast.
What
most didn't see at the time, however, was something Spicy Pickle had kept
in the background - plans for international expansion.
Rather
than try and fight an uphill battle, Spicy Pickle was savvy enough to divert
time and attention to a geography where money was flowing much better...
Canada.
It took a while to get the deal done, but the company has officially added
Vancouver's Bread Garden Urban Cafe chain to the Spicy Pickle family.
There's no recession there - Vancouver is thriving.
There
are eleven Bread Gardens up and running, which obviously removes the headache
of hunting for new store sites and then trying to sign a lease with a stubborn
landlord. In fact, the deal was so 'turn-key' that Bread Garden's
revenues and profits will show up on Spicy Pickle's books from day one
of the union.
The
acquisition doesn't involve any cash - it's an all stock deal, so the balance
sheet won't take a hit. That'll be good, since it lets the company remain
flexible in this rocky U.S. economy. Spicy Pickle's cash position and
cash flow will actually improve now that they have 19 company-owned
restaurants (11 Bread Gardens and 8 Spicy Pickles) contributing
to the top line. Those royalties from franchisees are nice, but the high-dollar
cash flow lies in ownership of restaurants.
As
for the stock, the 5.1 million shares issued (and 3.0 million warrants)
is actually a fairly small price for shareholders to pay. There are 48
million shares issued and outstanding already, so the maximum dilution
here is less than 20% long-term, and only about 10% in the short
run. The upside? I'm estimating cash flow has roughly doubled. Plus,
with
the Bread Garden chain already being profitable, there's an immediate
benefit to the company's bottom line.
Speaking
of the stock, the last time I talked about it my basic message was to steer
clear until the chart started to look healthier (advice that applied to
most
stocks at the time). Since then though, SPKL appears to have stabilized,
finding support around 40 cents.
I still
believe this stock is going to generally trade in the same direction as
the overall market. However, I also think it has considerably more
upside potential than the average stock right now. We also looked at the
market's
potential bottom in Tuesday's edition, and now we've seen some evidence
that Spicy Pickle - at the corporate level - isn't as stifled as
we may have thought.
If
you're really a value seeker and long-term investor, I think SPKL
is pretty attractive at 42 cents. A lot of the proverbial planets may have
lined up over the last few days.
The
Litmus Test
You
can make a long list of arguments in favor of China
Energy Recovery (OTCBB: CGYV). Revenue is growing, they recently
swung to a profit, and they own a key patent on a technology the Chinese
government is almost forcing companies to adopt.
None
of
those reasons holds a candle to the biggest argument of all though...
are more customers really willing to pay for CER's waste-heat recovery
systems?
We
knew so far the answer had been yes, as sales have been rising since 2006.
The real proof of customer demand came yesterday though, when
China Energy Recovery announced Two Lions Fine Chemical Co. had purchased
another
waste heat system for their new sulfuric acid plant.
The
first
purchase of a system could be chalked up as an experiment. The second
purchase of the same equipment isn't an experiment though ... it's a
message that the cost/benefit ratio of these systems is indeed fiscally
advantageous to the power plants using them. In other words, it's cheaper
in the long run (and even in the short run) to install one of China
Energy's systems. CER passed the litmus test.
Anyway,
the numbers here are impressive. The 50 MW heat recovery system Two Lions
is installing comes with a price tag of $3.2 million. How big is that?
Just
for comparison, China Energy Recovery did $9.9 million in sales in the
first half of 2008, and that was for several installations.
The average system retails for just under $200K, so clearly a $3.2
million system is a whopper.
Expensive?
On the surface, sure. There's a lot more to the story though.
If
the name Two Lions rings a bell, it might be because it's the same company
that sold
$2.5 million worth of carbon credits last week. And, they'll be
able to sell those carbon credits over and over again each year. How'd
they do it? They already have a CER system installed at their current
plant. And, it's about the same size as this one...50 MW.
Do
the math here. That first installation - which probably cost
around $3 million as well - can now provide revenue of around $2.5
million per year, in perpetuity. In less then two years the equipment
will pay for itself in carbon credit sales alone. This doesn't even
count the dollars saved in energy expenses, which can also be millions
of dollars per year. It's no wonder Two Lions opted to buy another one
for their new plant... the math says they'd be crazy not to.
Yeah,
this is one of those things the rest of the market might not 'get' because
they don't see the big picture right now, which is why I'm pounding
the table again this week. The question is, do you think it will it
show up on China Energy's top and bottom lines at a later date? I think
it will, which could excite other investors later. Of course, the stock
could be considerably more expensive by that point. That's why you
have to be bold when it comes to making fundamental decisions.
Still
Going
We're
three for three today in terms of finding small cap stocks still making
progress. Bio-Matrix
Scientific Group (OTCBB: BMSN) rounds out today's hat-trick by
letting us know they're still on track to generate revenue as a cord blood
storage facility.
We
first introduced Bio-Matrix based on their potential as a storage facility
for stem cells derived from adipose tissue. In the meantime, they've
started to cultivate a cord blood storage business. (The two are surprisingly
distinct, primarily because of the license required to operate each type
of facility.)
Anyway,
the company has to test the entire process first before doing so with 'real'
specimens. And, per their recent news release, they've done just that.
The tests aren't completely over; these same specimens are also part of
ongoing
quality control testing. Logistically though, they've proven they
can receive and process these cord blood units.
The
success so far is enough to merit further negotiations with potential cord
blood storage customers. Many of these companies needed to see the successful
receipt and processing of specimens (which they just did), so Bio-Matrix
can now come back to the table with an even more attractive proposition.
There's
still no word about when this venture will generate revenue, but this gets
them much closer to that point.
Bottom
Line
While
we got three doses of good news from three of our small cap followings,
I don't want to give you the wrong impression by implying you should blindly
plow into a position for all three stocks. Let's face it - there are
bigger forces at work here, and Washington D.C.'s rescue package is
going to set the tone for the near-term. That could impact these
three stocks (and all stocks), for better or worse.
That
said, I'm encouraged about how all three of these companies have pushed
through the recession and found ways to keep making progress. They'll be
better for it when things really start to hum for the economy.
Plus,
I don't want to suggest these three stocks won't move higher in the near-term
- they may well do it, and you should respond appropriately. I think
Spicy Pickle is the strongest recovery candidate in the short run.
At
the very least I want you to put these three tickers back on your watchlist,
as I think they'll all be trade-worthy soon. When? I can't say exactly,
but I believe soon. If we keep them nearby (mentally) we can respond when
the right time comes. The companies are doing their part - we just need
the charts to flinch.
Stay
tuned to the blog
for the specifics on how to best time any trades for these stocks. In the
meantime, here's the Spicy Pickle news.
Spicy Pickle
Franchising, Inc. Acquires Bread Garden Urban Cafes
Wednesday
October 1, 6:35 pm ET
DENVER, CO--(MARKET
WIRE)--Oct 1, 2008 -- Spicy
Pickle Franchising, Inc. (OTC BB:SPKL.OB) fast casual restaurants announced
today the acquisition of Bread Garden Franchising, Inc., the franchisor
of the Bread Garden Urban Cafes, a chain of franchised fast casual restaurants
located in the greater Vancouver, Canada area. Currently there are 11 operating
restaurants.
Spicy Pickle purchased
substantially all of the assets of Bread Garden Franchising, Inc. including
all of its rights to operate as the franchisor of the Bread Garden Urban
Cafes. As consideration for the acquisition Spicy Pickle issued 5,177,500
shares of its common stock and warrants to purchase up to 3,038,750 shares
of its common stock. Bread Garden Franchising, Inc. is a profitable company
and the transaction is expected to bring additional working revenue from
day one. Spicy Pickle will take over the existing small Bread Garden franchising
office located in downtown Vancouver.
Immediately after
the acquisition, there will be 53 restaurants in 15 states and 2 countries,
including both Spicy Pickle(r) restaurants and Bread Garden Urban Cafes.
At the present time there are no plans to convert the Bread Garden Urban
Cafes to Spicy Pickle(r) restaurants.
Bread Garden Urban
Cafes have been operating for approximately 30 years. Originally started
by local residents in the food industry, the cafes were eventually sold
to a large multi-unit corporation and in 2004 to a family that resides
in the Vancouver area. The cafes serve coffee, pastries and breakfast items
as well as lunch and dinner along with a wide variety of desserts. The
cafes offer Wi-Fi service and are a popular destination throughout the
day and evening. As is typical of European style restaurants, the food
is displayed in refrigerated glass cases giving customers a visual experience
before they choose their menu items.
Marc Geman, CEO
of Spicy Pickle Franchising, Inc., commented: "We are thrilled to add this
terrific chain to our growing portfolio of fast casual restaurants. After
extensive due diligence we saw tremendous opportunities. First, we will
expand our geographical footprint into the booming Western Canada region
which is not suffering from the same credit issues we are witnessing in
the States. Secondly, we now have the opportunity to take a very successful
coffee, breakfast, pastry and dessert program from the Bread Garden Urban
Cafes and import it to the Spicy Pickle(r) model. Additionally, we can
supplement their strong breakfast menu with our expansive and fresh lunch
menu. Bread Garden Urban Cafes are very popular and have a reputation as
an all day coffee house gathering place which adds incremental business
throughout the day."
Mr. Geman further
stated: "The Bread Garden Urban Cafes are extremely well located, many
of them having leased space at a time when great locations were still available
in Vancouver at reasonable rates. We will continue to use the Bread Garden
name as they have developed a loyal following and enjoy great brand recognition
in the region. Bread Garden's branded products are found on the British
Columbia ferries and in gas stations around the city, and while these outlets
are not part of this transaction, they add tremendously to the brand identification
throughout British Columbia."
Zahir Dhanani,
a principal of Bread Garden Franchising, Inc., said: "Over the course of
the past year, we have been searching for successful restaurant operators
with similar concepts and were fortunate enough to meet the management
team at Spicy Pickle. As a smaller chain, we wanted to partner with someone
who can assist us in growing our business at a greater rate. Given the
operational efficiencies and business synergies they offer, we can quickly
expand our menu offerings and benefit from the exposure of being part of
a public company. We are very excited to join the Spicy Pickle(r) organization."
About Spicy
Pickle:
Founded in 1999,
Spicy Pickle Franchising, Inc. (OTC BB:SPKL.OB) serves high quality meats
and fine artisan breads, baked fresh daily, along with a wide choice of
eight different cheeses, twenty-two different toppings, and fourteen proprietary
spreads to create healthy and delicious panini and sub sandwiches with
flavors from around the world. As a leading "fast-casual" concept, Spicy
Pickle offers menu items that are far beyond traditional fast food but
without the price point of casual dining. The hallmark of a Spicy Pickle(r)
restaurant is quality, service and an enjoyable atmosphere. The company
is headquartered in Denver, Colorado, with restaurants open or under construction
across 15 states and several more in development nationwide. Spicy Pickle
Franchising, Inc., also operates as franchisor for Bread Garden Urban Cafes,
a concept with 11 restaurants in the metropolitan Vancouver, Canada area.
Bread Garden Urban Cafes serve coffee, pastries and breakfast items as
well as lunch and dinner along with a wide variety of desserts. To find
out more about Spicy Pickle (OTC BB:SPKL.OB - News), visit our website
at www.spicypickle.com/.
Forward-Looking
Statements:
Certain statements
in this press release, including statements regarding the number of restaurants
we intend to open, are forward-looking statements. We use words such as
"anticipate," "believe," "could," "should," "estimate," "expect," "intend,"
"may," "predict," "project," "target," and similar terms and phrases, including
references to assumptions, to identify forward-looking statements. The
forward-looking statements in this press release are based on information
available to us as of the date any such statements are made and we assume
no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. These statements
are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results
to differ materially from those described in the statements. These risks
and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the following: factors
that could affect our ability to achieve and manage our planned expansion,
such as the availability of a sufficient number of suitable new restaurant
sites and the availability of qualified franchisees and employees; risks
relating to our expansion into new markets; the risk of food-borne illnesses
and other health concerns about our food products; changes in the availability
and costs of food; changes in consumer preferences, general economic conditions
or consumer discretionary spending; the impact of federal, state or local
government regulations relating to our franchisees and employees, and the
sale of food or alcoholic beverages; the impact of litigation; our ability
to protect our name and logo and other proprietary information; the potential
effects of inclement weather; the effect of competition in the restaurant
industry; and other risk factors described from time to time in our SEC
reports.
Contact:
Company Contact:
Marc Geman
Spicy Pickle
Franchising, Inc.
(303) 297-1902
http://www.spicypickle.com
Investor Relations
Contact:
Pamela A. Solly
Cirrus Financial
Communications, LLC
(720) 489-4912
http://www.CirrusFC.com
Source: Spicy
Pickle Franchising, Inc.
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1,200,441 shares of Spicy Pickle at an average cost of $.2125 per share.
These purchases were made in Spicy Pickle private offerings. The aforementioned
purchases were made between August of 2005 and August of 2006. On 12/15/07,
on entity controlled by Larry Isen participated in an additional financing
wherein 12 shares of convertible preferred, converting at $.85 into 120,000
shares and 90,000 warrants with an exercise price of $1.60 were purchased.
In addition, Larry Isen has received 785,000 shares of Spicy Pickle common
stock for consulting services and has purchased 213,343 shares in the open
market at an average cost of $.89 cents per share. In addition, MarketByte
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cash, and 300,000 newly issued restricted shares for coverage of Spicy
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