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VOLUME 08 : ISSUE 35
In
This Edition...
If
you've read the blog any at all this week, then you already know
it's been a busy three days. I'm going to condense as much as I can into
today's edition - just the stuff you 'need to know'. Specifically,
I want to look at...
How
to navigate - or not navigate - this volatile market
SpongeTech's
recent visibility campaign (in the sidebar)
Spicy
Pickle's chart cleaned up a nagging issue
Today's
news from Applied DNA
I
think those are the biggies. However, I had to leave out my thoughts on
Citigroup's (NYSE: C) decision to dump $13 billion worth of leveraged buyout
loans. They're in the blog though, along with some other stuff.
How
I'm Dealing With All The Volatility
If
you've been reading my morning comments in the blog, then you already know
what I'm currently expecting from the market....two or three steps forward,
then two or three steps back. The net result is a wash, but
those two to three steps may be trade-worthy. This is what the market has
given us for about three months now.
In
fact, I've been publicly tracking one of my recent personal trades - my
purchase of QQQQ April 47 puts (a bearish trade), which
I bought at $1.84.
My
rationale was simple enough...the bulls just got carried away last Tuesday,
and pushed the QQQQ's to what I though was their limit. Technically
I could have gotten a slightly better price a couple of days later, but
not significantly better.
So
why did I bet against the market's apparent trend? There are a couple
of reasons.
First
and foremost, habit. The market is, for the most part, caught in a
range. We've not seen a breakout in three months; why would this one be
different? (Just for the record, all of the recent rallies and pullbacks
looked just as suggestive of 'more of the same', but there's been zero
follow-through).
The
second reason? The market just can't justify any meaningful price appreciation
right now.
I know,
I know...how very fundamental of me (or how very un-trader-like).
Though I'm a trader at heart, I'm not oblivious to the fact that the majority
of the market uses a valuation approach to price stocks. With
Bear Stearns (NYSE:
BSC) obliterated, Citigroup (NYSE:
C) jumping at the chance to dump worrisome debt, and two past Fed
chairmen both less than warm-n-fuzzy right now, are we
supposed to think all is well?
So
how has the market made any gains at all? The age-old emotions of
fear and greed - that's how. Those can propel the market for a few
days before fading. Then, it's back to perceived valuations.
Anyway,
my put options are up a little bit right now. I'm basically planning on
a couple more down days - tops - before greed kicks in again.
When
will this short-term gyration end? I don't know, but I'll let you know
when I think it has.
Spicy
Pickle Cleans Up Some Loose Ends
Unlike
the market, the last three days have actually been pretty decent for Spicy
Pickle (OTCBB:
SPKL) shares. On Friday they closed at 70 cents, but have moved
back up to the 75-cent-ish area. It's not a huge reversal, but one
I want to keep following.
So
what was going on with Spicy Pickle during Q1 in the first place? A
lot of restricted shares because unrestricted. I don't know if all the
would-be sellers are done yet, but I do think a big chunk of them
are done.
Why
are they selling here? Their cost basis is still well under
current levels. I personally think it's a mistake to get out now, as the
company is still growing. But, that's their decision.
As
for the 'all clear' sign, I think the chart will actually tell us when
the selling barrage is over. This week might be an early sign of that,
though it's still far from enough evidence for me. That said...
I
don't think it's even a small coincidence the stock perked up just
as the only remaining chart gap was closed.
Between September 21st and September 24th, we saw a gap from 71 cents to
75 cents. It's been nagging at me ever since.
Well,
no reason to worry any further...the gap was closed on Friday; there are
no gaps left.
I know
it "shouldn't" matter, particularly if stocks are valued based on
company performance. I think we all know that's not how trading works though.
Even fundamental investors should be relieved this looming threat has been
taken out of the equation.
Applied
DNA: Validity x 2
On
Monday I mentioned Applied DNA's (OTCBB:
APDN) order from chemical company Rhodia was a big deal, not so
much because of the dollars involved, but that it was a high profile deal
which really validated APDN's technology. Today, the company
made two more check marks in the validity column.
In
short, Applied DNA has shipped two re-orders. By that, I just mean two
of their customers came back for more of what Applied DNA sells. One was
a third order for DermalRX, and the other was a second order for Signature
DNA (tm) to be used in a cash-in-transit company's cash boxes.
I'll
re-ask my rhetorical question...why do you think they're ordering seconds
and thirds?
I think
the answer is the simplest one - because there's a real and renewable
market here. If the customer purchasing the DermalRX ends up taking
their in-development product to the market using Applied DNA's ingredient,
it's likely to be huge renewable business. Rhodia's and PrintColor's business
is renewable as well. IIMAK's would be too.
With
ongoing re-orders like these, it really wouldn't take much for Applied
DNA to reach critical mass and become self-sustaining. They've only scratched
the surface of the potential market; I just think they need a little time
to cultivate it now that the product is commercialized.
The
press release is below.
Applied
DNA Sciences Ships Additional Orders for SigNature DNA and DermalRx
STONY BROOK, N.Y.,
April 09, 2008 /Business Wire/ -- Applied DNA Sciences, Inc. (OTC
Bulletin Board: APDN), a provider of DNA-based security solutions,
today announced that it has shipped follow-on orders of SigNature(tm) DNA
and DermalRx(tm) in the second fiscal quarter of 2008 which ended March
31, 2008.
"We believe these
orders are significant steps forward for both the company and the technology,"
stated Dr. James Hayward, CEO of Applied DNA Sciences. "We feel that these
repeat orders reflect satisfied customers and further market acceptance
of our products. We were able to fulfill both orders within two weeks of
receipt demonstrating APDN's preparedness for execution."
Within one month
of shipping the first order of custom SigNature(tm) DNA markers for use
in the cash-in-transit industry, APDN received a second order of SigNature(tm)
DNA Markers from the same company, a world leading cash handling organization.
At about the same time, APDN shipped a third order of DermalRx(tm) to its
prior multinational customer developing new skin care products. Full blown
commercialization of the first product is still anticipated by the end
of 2008.
"APDN continues
to focus its energies on developing solutions that meet the individual
needs of every organization we work with, offering products customers can
rely on and technology they can trust," continued Dr. Hayward. "We are
pleased to have follow-on orders from two established customers, as we
continue to develop new sales leads. By diversifying into these related
businesses, we maximize our technical expertise and minimize economic cycles
affecting any one of these businesses."
About Applied
DNA Sciences, Inc.
Applied DNA Sciences
markets and sells DNA encrypted and embedded solutions that are forensically
authenticated by machine readable devices. These solutions can be easily
integrated with a range of inks, threads, varnishes, adhesives as well
as thermal ribbon, inkjet and laser ink. Applied DNA Sciences' products
can help protect the brands and intellectual property that can easily be
eroded by counterfeiting, product diversion and fraud. APDN's common stock
is listed on the Over-The-Counter Bulletin Board under the symbol "APDN".
The statements
made by APDN may be forward-looking in nature and are made pursuant to
the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform
Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements describe APDN's future plans, projections,
strategies and expectations, and are based on assumptions and involve a
number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control
of APDN. Actual results could differ materially from those projected due
to our short operating history, limited financial resources, limited market
acceptance, market competition and various other factors detailed from
time to time in APDN's SEC reports and filings, including our Annual Report
on Form 10-KSB, filed on January 15, 2008 and our subsequent quarterly
reports on Form 10-QSB. APDN undertakes no obligation to update publicly
any forward-looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances
after the date hereof to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
SOURCE Applied
DNA Sciences, Inc.
-0-04/09/2008
/CONTACT: Debbie
Bailey, 631-444-8090, fax: 631-444-8848/
/FCMN Contact:
info@adnas.com /
/Web site: http://www.ADNAS.com
/
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SpongeTech's
Visibility Cranked Up
Never
let it be said SpongeTech Delivery Systems (OTCBB:
SPNG) wasn't visible; their company name and products are popping up
everywhere. Let's just run down this week's list.
On
Tuesday, CEO Michael Metters demonstrated the company's patented sponges
on television's shopping network QVC. The product appears on a segment
appropriately called 'Keep it Clean'. No word yet on the result, but the
station has a very active consumer audience.
We
also learned yesterday that SpongeTech's auto wash sponges will twice be
the featured product on upcoming episodes of 'The Price is Right'. Not
only will the sponges be shown up close on TV, but Rich Fields' voice -
the announcer - will describe what the sponge is and how it works.
The
upside is clear - exposure. SpongeTech's sponges are going to be shown
to millions of consumers, and I suspect a lot of new ones. They're winding
down their TV ads on several men-oriented networks, and now they're opening
some doors to a predominantly-female audience. I think the fact that new
consumers are seeing the product is a big deal.
One
more item to add to the list of publicity efforts ...sponsorship of their
hometown New York Yankees. SpongeTech will be giving away key-chains at
the July 28th home game as part of their sponsorship package. That's hardly
all they get that day though. The company's name/logo will be visible all
over the stadium (inside and out), and the company will be mentioned on
TV as well as radio.
We've
seen hints that the recent ramp-up in marketing - which started last quarter
- is indeed creating sales traction. I don't know how much revenue was
booked last quarter, but I do know they'll be announcing those numbers
any day now.
Just
for some perspective, last quarter (which ended November 30th) they did
$331K in sales. The quarter before that, they did about $64K. Between then
and now, we know production and ordering has ramped up considerably thanks
to a major marketing effort (see all the press releases). I have to think
we're looking at a seven figure top line now...and perhaps profitability.
My
lingering question - how are they paying for all the advertising and marketing?
They used stock to pay advertising expenses for the prior-reported quarter.
That's fine to get things jump-started, though I hope it doesn't become
a habit. If they did the same this time, the question becomes one of the
upside of revenue growth versus the downside of dilution. I'll keep you
in the loop.
Smart
Energy Partners With Major GM Upfitter
Chalk
up another nice win for small cap company Smart Energy Solutions (OTCBB:
SMGY) - they're partnering up with Kerr Industries - one of General
Motors' (NYSE: GM) key upfitters for their police and emergency vehicle
lines. Smart Energy's Battery Brain (tm) will be offered through Kerr's
catalog as one of the options for a first-response vehicle ordered through
the GM/Kerr program.
The
opportunity here is decent; General Motors sells about 20,000 emergency
vehicles each year. And, bear in mind that GM is hardly the only company
that sells police cruisers and other emergency vehicles.
The
'take away' here isn't just the Kerr news...at least not to us. No, the
thing to keep in mind about this announcement is that we keep hearing the
same kinds of announcements from Smart Energy Solutions. We're getting
them at a rate of about one per month.
By
the way, we count a total of 15 new partnerships and/or distributors in
just the last year. That explains much of the top line growth so far. But
more importantly, it also leaves plenty more opportunity for other new
partnerships over the next couple of years.
Here's
the news.
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