I'm willing to bet most of you are ready for the weekend after Friday's meltdown. Stocks were lackluster all week long, but between Wednesday's sizeable stumble and Friday's huge selloff, this past trading week was a bit painful for the bulls (though a blessing for the bears).
To answer your two key questions, yes, the S&P 500 broke under its major support level, but no, the NASDAQ Composite didn't. We'll look at both, just to make sure we have a firm grip on what's going on here.
The S&P 500's chart below shows us the index broke under the lower Bollinger band as well as below the 100-day moving average line (gray)... the last of potential support levels made by any moving average lines. The plunge also pulled the index below the November low around 2021, so we can't even hope there's a floor there.
The NASDAQ Composite is still technically holding above its lower Bollinger band and 100-day moving average line, but just barely. It's not yet made a low below the November low (red, dashed) either, and it's still got an intermediate-term support line (black, dashed) that has a small shot at staving off a downtrend before it gets started in earnest. While the NASDAQ is still toying with support around 4937, given the momentum and mood now, I suspect we now have to test that lower, rising support line.
You'll also notice both the VIX and the VXN made strong thrusting moves today, suggesting sentiment has turned decidedly bearish. What you can't see on either chart is that the VIX and the VXN still have plenty of room to keep rising before prior peaks are met. That means there's still room for the market to keep falling, IF the last of the NASDAQ's support lines don't do much in the way of providing support.
I sure don't envy anyone trying to make a decision here. Fortunately, I don't have to envy anyone who acted on the decision John Monroe made for Elite Opportunity subscribers on Tuesday of this week, since I'm also a subscriber.
I so wanted to tell you this then, but it just wouldn't have been fair to EO members at the time - John saw this week's meltdown coming a mile away, and did something about it before it materialized. This is just part of what he said in Tuesday's Elite Opportunity newsletter:
"We all know things can change on a dime. Based on what took place yesterday across the major indices, and more importantly early this morning, it could be time to batten down the hatches, and finally reverse our extremely long-term bullish stance....
...I mentioned in yesterday's edition following Friday's sharp reversal back to the upside if the major indices somehow managed to negate the technical railroad tracks from last Thursday and Friday by taking out Friday's low as soon as today, the extremely important technical event could spell disaster. Well, it appears that's exactly what has taken place...
... today's technical event actually could be the very first signal to suggest a major changing of the tide...
... when the markets had put themselves in a position to move sharply higher on two previous occasions and failed, today's move definitely suggests we could be going lower now, much lower. I suspect at this point the index is now headed for the trend line you see here."
The point on the chart John was referencing was basically the same rising support level we plotted on our chart of the NASDAQ Composite. Just as he suggested, the composite is pennies away from touching that line in the sand. What happens then could be spectacular.
In the meantime, those who took John's advice Tuesday - depending on how they acted on it - should be well up. A triple-leveraged bearish ETF like the ProShares Trust UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ) John prefers would be up about 10% right now. If instead a trader wanted to juice John's outlook a bit and play it with a put option, some barely-in-the-money January puts on the SPYders (SPY) would be up right around triple digits by now.
That's the great part about John's advice - it's adaptive to all sorts of trading styles and instruments. Most of his buys and sells are based on index-specific levels, so there are clear in and out prices for everyone.
As for where things are headed next, you know, when the best thing you can say about the market is a certain day's session was so harsh that a dead-cat bounce is likely, you're already in deep trouble. Maybe that'll be enough. Or, maybe we'll need to test the NASDAQ's big support level to entice everyone off the sidelines and back into stocks.
Or, maybe it's just too late to be thinking in those optimistic terms.
I've got a theory on the matter, but I'm not going to share it just yet. Rather, I'm going to listen to John Monroe's advice. He's been spot-on so far with the recent volatility, and he's got a good bead on the way things are likely to unfurl if-and-when the NASDAQ reaches the inflection point of that huge support level. It's all getting really complicated, and that complexity is being underscored by the calendar.
If you're feeling a little lost as to what to do now with your stocks, sign up for the Elite Opportunity newsletter. It's been making a lot of sense out of a seemingly-senseless market. Here's how.