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VOLUME 07 : ISSUE 48
Phinder's
Bottom Line....err, 'Top' Line
If
there was any mystery left behind the Phinder Technologies (OTCBB:
PHDT) opportunity, odds are the company's recent announcement will
clear it up once and for all. In a nutshell, Phinder has announced a
revenue estimate. And let me tell you, I think you're going to like
what you hear.
Just
to set the stage for why the press release may end up being a 'deal-maker'
in the investment-decision sense of the word, a brief history may be in
order.
We've
been classifying Phinder as a telecom service provider since we first started
covering them early last month. Their focus is providing the 'connection'
between domestic carriers who have international calling needs....specifically,
calls to the Latin American market. Simultaneously, they were looking to
become a local carrier within that same Latin American market (which by
default makes them a termination point for those international calls....also
a money-maker).
The
challenge has been the telecom enterprise's newness. There really was no
history or track record to use as a benchmark, so there was really no effective
way to determine what kind of revenue growth was likely....not unless
Phinder told us. That, however, wasn't even all that easy for the company
to do, as all the pieces of the puzzle were still being assembled.
Well,
the curtain has been lifted, so to speak. This weekend, Phinder came out
and said what kind of sales they realistically expect to drive in the near
term. By the second quarter of this fiscal year (the fiscal year ends
on March 31st, so we're now in their Q1), they're expecting to be doing
$2.5 million is sales per month. Annualized, that translates
into $30 million per year.
A lot?
Oh yeah! We knew the telecom business was expanding, but Phinder was on
track to do only about $10 million last fiscal year. We don't have the
final word on those numbers yet, but regardless of whether they meet or
beat expectations of last year, they're looking to be pulling in about
2.5 times that total within the next six months. Wow!
Our
Take
Now
that we have some flesh around the framework, let's revisit our initial
valuation model.
In
our first look at the opportunity, we used a guess-timate of $30
million in annual sales to come up with a price target for PHDT. Honestly,
we had no idea at the time the company's first projection would be the
exact same as ours. Maybe we're just really good, or perhaps we're lucky.
Either works for me.
With
about 70 million shares issued and outstanding, the market cap is around
$12.9 million when shares are at their current level of 18.5 cents. Now,
think
about this for a minute.....a company with a roughly $13 million market
cap looking at $30 million in sales by the end of September? On a per-share
basis, we're talking about 42 cents in annual revenue, though the stock
is trading at 18.5 cents. The price/sales ratio works out to be about
0.44. The problem is - and here's the root of the opportunity
- a price/sales ratio of 3.0 is about the norm. By that same model,
PHDT
shares 'should' be trading at $1.26 within the next six months.
Yet
the question remains, can Phinder really do it? In our opinion, yes
- Phinder can indeed realistically reach that benchmark within the next
six months. We've independently studied the company and their growth
opportunity, and we speak with the guys steering the ship on a pretty regular
basis. Based on what they've already achieved in Latin and South America,
we're believers. At the same time, we're equally excited about some of
the other opportunities in the works the company hasn't even really shouted
about yet.
And
truthfully, based on all we know, we think an annual run rate of $30 million
is just the tip of the iceberg. Last week's Argentina and Uruguay announcement
was a great first milestone, but they've got many more licenses to do business
in other Latin/South American markets, thanks to their union with Italba.
Beyond that, the company is opening doors in Asia and Europe as well. We
agree with CEO Lex van Arem's assessment of the $30 million forecast....that
it's 'conservative'. Don't forget -the company recently acquired the
financial
capacity to do up to $120 million per year, and don't even get me started
on the wide margins here.
So
needless to say, we're still completely comfortable with our original target
of $1.25. In fact, with the stock currently trading below where we saw
it when we first started looking at PHDT, the bargain appears to be even
better.
The
bottom line is once again quite simple....you can own a stock at incredibly
low levels before you think the 'on' switch has been flipped, or
you can chase a stock with everyone else after the potential becomes crystal
clear. As always the choice is yours, but you know where I stand - I
see the sweet-spot for speculation as being right here, right now.
Phinder
Announces Revenue Projection of $2.5 million Per Month
Miami, May 11,
2007 - Zupintra Communications, Inc. a wholly owned subsidiary of Phinder
Technologies Inc.(OTCBB:
PHDT) announces anticipated revenues of $2.5 million per month by the
second quarter of this fiscal year.
Further to our
May 4, 2007 press release, Zupintra is pleased to announce that it is in
the position to start routing traffic through its' Latin American network
and has been in discussions with a number of telecommunication companies
over the past few weeks.
The company anticipates
generating over $2,500,000 a month in wholesale telecommunications revenues
by the second quarter of this fiscal year. This is a direct result of its'
joint venture with Italba Corporation and Zupintra Panama S.A.
"We feel this
projection is very conservative based on the level of current activity",
stated John Alexander (Lex) van Arem, CEO of Phinder Technologies Inc.
"The initial construction phase of our plan is nearing completion and revenue
has already begun".
Phinder Technologies'
core business runs through its wholly owned subsidiary, Zupintra Communications
Inc. Zupintra is a facilities based retailer and wholesaler of international
voice traffic within the carrier to carrier network. As a wholesale VoIP
provider, Zupintra Communications Inc. holds both origination and termination
contracts with PTT's and next generation carriers.
In compliance
with the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995, PHDT notes that statements contained in this announcement
that are not historical facts may be forward - looking statements that
are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, PHDT
wishes to caution readers of this announcement that its future actual results
may differ materially from those that any forward - looking statements
may imply. There is no assurance the above - described events will be completed.
There can be no assurance of the ability of the company to achieve sales
goals, obtain contracts or financing, consummate acquisitions or achieve
profitability in the future. The above and additional factors are discussed
in detail in the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission. These may be viewed at www.sec.gov and many other Web sites
without charge.
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Stockgroup's
Earnings Call on Monday
Don't
forget, everyone's invited to listen in on Stockgroup's (OTCBB:
SWEB) Q1 conference call at 4:05 PM EST on Monday, May 14th. They'll
actually announce results about an hour before that. Still, we know from
the Q4 call that there's a considerable amount of important information
you can only get by participating in the call.
To
join the call, dial 1-866-400-2280 a few minutes before the start time.
If you're more of a web-based investor, you can join the online webcast
following the instructions available at the company's website, stockgroup.com.
Windows Media Player is required to access the online version.
For
more, click here.
Titan
Completes Purchase of Ready Mobile
Back
in February, we learned how a Titan Global (OTCBB:
TTGL) acquisition was expected to add a few million to Titan's top
line. Well, it's now a done deal.
In
2006, the Ready Mobile enterprise did $9 million in sales. Since then,
the annual run rate has been upped to $12 million. Will that really impact
Titan's communication division? Try this on for size....Titan's communications
division did $89.3 million last year, and is expected to do between $120
and $140 million this year. So, we're looking at about a 10% improvement
thanks to Ready Mobile.
The
neat part about this union is what each side brings to the table - Ready
Mobile is great at attracting subscribers, while Titan has an enormous
distribution network. The two talents combined foster a win/win scenario.
For
more on the purchase, click
here.
In
the meantime, Titan seems to be back in the hunt
It's
true - in the blink of an eye, Titan's stock is on the rise again, and
back into the trading range it got pretty comfortable with during the first
four months of the year.
The
move pushes TTGL back above a key support line....the line that didn't
act as support when we fell back to 95 cents. Given the choice, I'd rather
not have made a side trip like that, but I think this is an encouraging
sign - especially when there's some volume behind effort.
I see
$1.40 as the next big milestone. Though we've actually traded as high as
$1.49 within the last two months, it was the $1.40 area that seemed to
constantly cap each surge since January. If we get above that line, I feel
this stock's burden may ease a bit.
The
catalyst? We covered it in Wednesday's
newsletter....the company plans on buying back up to 4 million shares.
That's a nice chunk of the 50 or so million currently I&O.
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