I'm exactly 0% surprised the market ended up essentially breaking even today (the S&P 500 gained a whopping 0.10 points to close at 2091.58). Nobody really knows what to make of the market right now, and that's showing in every possible way. It's also a big part of the reason there's no need to make any major commitment to one side of the market or the other right now.
And yet, maybe we should be a little more bullish than we've been seeing things of late.
One would think with Alphabet (GOOGL) as well as Microsoft (MSFT) both tanking on Friday - after earnings reports - the market would have moved much lower. Or, if not that, the high-profile tumbles would at least paint a bearish picture of the broad market's breadth and depth. Strangely though, it didn't.
Check this out. Although the market basically broke even today, the NYSE's advancers outpaced decliners at a ratio of 2.2 to 1.0. The NYSE's up volume was stronger than its down volume by a ratio of 2.2 to 1.0.
That's an awful lot of buying for a market that didn't budge today.
Granted, both GOOGL and MSFT are NASDAQ-listed stocks and therefore aren't counted as part of the NYSE's data. I'm sure the NASDAQ's breadth and depth was uglier, as the NASDAQ Composite closed 0.8% lower. The composite did NOT lead the rest of the market lower today though, as one would have expected it to do. Maybe traders are still thinking a little more bullishly than some people think.
The other reason investors may want to be thinking a little more bullishly than they currently are: We're seeing sector rotation out of safe havens and into riskier, more aggressive industries.
It's been a while since we've looked at our (relative) sector performance chart, mainly because there's not been a whole lot to look at. That started to change about a week ago though, and the rotation seems to be accelerating now. This rotation is out of the usual "safe" plays like utilities, telecom, and staples, and into "risk on" sectors like materials, financials, and - for right now anyway - energy.
It's not an iron-clad signal that traders are moving back to a risk-minded attitude that generally occurs at the beginning of rallies. The technology and consumer discretionary sectors are also weakening. They arguably should be perking up if traders are thinking bullishly. Knowing nothing's ever perfect though, the way this chart is taking shape is rather telling.
Do with it what you want. I just thought it was interesting.
With all of that being said, here's the daily chart of the S&P 500, which looks about as on-the-fence as you might suspect it would be.
There's still a big technical ceiling at 2112, and still a big floor at 2077, where the 20-day moving average line will be early next week. There's also still a HUGE floor forming at 2015. Patience remains crucial at this time. On that note...
A couple of times in the past few days a few readers have pointed out we seem to keep waffling from a bearish to a bullish stance. At first I didn't entirely disagree, but the more I thought about it, I think I do disagree - not because we don't talk about the bullish and bearish aspects of the market, but because we deliberately try to remain directionally-agnostic. Our goal? We simply want to show you some of the things you may not fully appreciate, and let you come to your own conclusions. If a little of our opinion oozes out of our discussion sometimes, so be it. Like I said though, we're mostly just trying give you the complete market picture we know you're not getting anywhere else.
The next obvious question... where do you get clear-cut market advice? That's what the Elite Opportunity does every day.
Those of you who are subscribers to the EO already know it, but for those you aren't currently Elite Opportunity members, John Monroe lays out specific trading parameters and ideas when merited, complete with targets and stops. Sometimes he and his staff will take some of the information we talk about in the free newsletter you're reading now and do so much more with it. If you like the SCN newsletter you're reading now, you'll love the EO.
If you'd like to take your trading results to the next level, I highly recommend becoming an Elite Opportunity subscriber. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/
From the Site
Before we sign off for the day and the week, we want to refer you to some of today's most important commentaries posted at the site. In no certain order...
Does anybody out there own shares in Alphabet (GOOGL)? So sorry if you do. GOOGL shares were down 5% today after the company posted its earnings results Thursday evening. But, as Bryan Murphy points out, the actual results are rock-solid even if the company fell short of expectations.
Did everyone see the 52% gain Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dished out on Friday? John Udovich has the scoop on why, and what it means for investors. It wasn't just last quarter's earnings news.
With earnings season underway, much of the focus is on the results companies achieved last quarter. There's a lot of value in knowing what to expect and what matters headed into earnings though. That's why you may want to check out Peter Graham's preview of the upcoming Coach (COH) earnings report.
Finally, Starbucks (SBUX) also tanked on Friday following its quarterly report, and unlike Alphabet, Bryan Murphy thinks that may be exactly what the stock deserved.
Have a great weekend!