News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Stocks Reach a Trade-Worthy Bottom. "Sell in May" Deja Vu.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Yesterday it was only a hypothetical; today it's a reality. What's that? The NASDAQ 100's (NDX) move to a key Fibonacci level at 2550. Now that it's been touched (and surpassed, actually, with today's plunge to 2535.36), the market's likely burned off all of the selling pressure it needs to. From here we can expect a trade-worthy bounce... which may well turn into something bigger. Advertisement Complimentary Stock Analysis Should you buy, sell or hold? Enter any stock symbol for a free, complete technical analysis from INO.com. This report will be delivered to you instantly! --- Today's Top 50 Trending Stocks This dynamically updated list will share today's top trending market movers to help you find realtime trading opportunities. Advertisement Of course, none of this is news to you if you read yesterday's newsletter. At the time we didn't think the market was quite ready to rebound yet, since that Fib line hadn't been hit. After today though - the fourth big losing day in a row that finally reached the key Fibonacci retracement level - odds are the bulls are going start using the dip as an entry opportunity. Yeah, I know it feels a little counter-intuitive to try and catch a falling knife, but that's trading, ya' know? Stocks tend to zig just when everyone's certain they're going to zag. Anyway, since we're 'there', I think now's the time to talk a little strategy with you about any long/bullish entry. Seeing as how the first four days of this week were losers, there's a decent chance traders are just going to concede and throw in the towel on Friday too, sending stocks slightly lower still. Or, there's a chance that today's blowout is the capitulation. While we suspect the ultimate outcome will be the same either way, clearly this is a gift-wrapped conundrum for you... do you plow in today, or tomorrow? In a case like this where the exact bottom isn't going to be clear, I think the best bet is also the simplest one - you split the difference. Whatever long trade you were thinking about doing, do half today and half tomorrow, or half on Friday and half on Monday. You get the idea.... you don't have to risk getting entirely off on the wrong foot. Were it me though, I'd wait 'til next week to place the second half of any trade. Crazy stuff happens over the weekend, and there's no telling what kind of a mood traders will start the week with on Monday. Like I said yesterday, this dip isn't the 'investment opportunity of a lifetime'. It's just a near-term trading opportunity for you, but there's still no sense in wasting it. Now, on to other things.... LuxeYard is Real One of the toughest parts about investing in small startup companies is wondering when, or even if, they're actually open for business. Not that we had any doubts about LuxeYard Inc. (OTC:LUXR) being for real when we featured it last month, but the company's viability was verified this week. Though not in an official SEC filing, LUXR has confirmed it's driving revenue.. its first ever. The company is plenty real now. The notification actually came in an update for shareholders on Tuesday. [Sorry for the lateness - just haven't had much of a chance to get to everything we'd like to of late.] While the site didn't generate zillions of dollars in revenue, remember, this is a startup company. We need to give it time to develop momentum and grow the audience. The key here for investors is simply bearing in mind that you own stocks for where they're going, and not for where they are. LuxeYard looks like it's pointed in the right direction, plain and simple. You can read the whole update fir yourself right here. Don't worry - it's pretty short, and reads fast. Been There, Done That, Don't Care Yep, I know the market's been getting rocked the last three weeks. Stocks are off 8% from their peak values last month, and still pointed in the wrong direction, even if we're expecting that to change real soon. And yes, I know all that bearish momentum is supposed to stem from worries that stocks are overpriced relative to current and future valuations. I gotta be honest with you though... while the media and gurus are all legitimizing the pullback, saying the situation looks bleak, I seriously doubt this month's weakness so far is any different than the May weakness from 2011 and the May weakness 2010. The pundits were screaming gloom and doom then too, and in both cases, the markets recovered and moved to new highs later that year. Or, to put it in more succinct terms, I'm about 100% positive this drastic selloff is a self-fulfilling prophecy of the whole "Sell in May and go away" thing, which we've seen unfold in each of the last couple of years. The nearby charts say it all. What we've seen this month so far is pretty much what we've seen in the prior two years (and it's pretty much what we've seen each year for the past decade, even if obscured in bear market years). Thing is, the soft patch ended by September is most cases. Heck, the bulk of the bearish pressure mostly ended at the end of May a bug chunk of the time. My point is, the calendar may be driving the current selling effort a heck of a lot more than fundamentals are. I know the bearish fundamental arguments sound pretty solid right now, but they sounded solid in May of 2011 and on May of 2010 too, yet were wrong. Folks, when the bear market really comes, most people won't see it coming. There's too much pessimism now for this to be the beginning of the end. Advertisement Santa Monica Wiz Kid Makes $87 Million Trading Stocks Using his same strategy you can get crazy rich - fast! One trader recently used this strategy to increase his wealth 4-fold in a single weekend. Find out how you can do the same thing! Click Here and Find Out How - for FREE! Advertisement Anyway, just wanted to throw that at you if you're getting super-nervous here. This May selloff is nothing out of the ordinary, and we're looking for it to end - at least temporarily - real soon. Talk to you tomorrow.