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The Best Industries to Own (or Avoid) for the Next Three Months
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Happy Friday, friends and fellow traders, and welcome to the weekend. Well, I don't want to say the market is past the point of no return yet, but if it isn't, it's pretty darn close. The sellers are really starting to come out of the woodwork too. Putting it all together, May could end up being its usual tepid month at best, and maybe a bearish month; a gain (any gain) in May is less than a 50/50 proposition. June and July aren't much better, though at least there's a glimmer of hope in July. I do have a way for you, however, to improve your odds for the next three months. More on that in a moment. Let's get to the broad market first. The Bulls Are Still Swinging, Even on Their Knees I have to give credit where it's due - even when they were on the ropes at mid-day today, the bulls kept on swinging, thinking they may still have a chance at pulling their fat out of the fire. How do I know this? Take a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below. Though the index started and finished the session until the key 20-day moving average line at 2076, the late-day buyback cut a 1.0% intraday loss to only a 0.5% end-of-day loss, leaving behind a hammer-shaped bar as a result. This is what bullish reversals often look like. You'll also notice the VIX made a bar that's a mirror image of that hammer pattern after briefly moving above a major ceiling around 16.0. This also suggests the sellers are already out of gas and ceding control back to the bulls. I'm not saying a bounce is inevitable. I'm just saying we should be prepared for anything from this nutty market. The odds still say - to me anyway - bearishness is apt to be in the cards, even if stocks don't proceed in a straight line. The bearish red flags include a lot of volume behind today's selloff, and the way the NASDAQ Composite is starting to put some last-ditch pressure on its key support lines near 4775. The NASDAQ and the VXN are just one bad day away from falling off the edge of the cliff. It's certainly the time of year for such weakness to take shape. The average gain in May is a mere 0.13%, and more than half the time, May's a loser for the S&P 500. In June, the S&P 500 makes a gain just as often as it makes a loss, and the losses tend to be bigger; the average return for the month of June is -0.1%. Things get a tad better by July, with the average return rolling in at 0.84%. There are still more losing July's than winners, though. Knowing the calendar isn't helping any, the bearish hints on our two charts above become a little more alarming. I've got a partial solution to the problem though. Hot Spots, Cold Spots We did this exercise in early March, and it worked out rather well. That is to say, it helped a bunch of you make some extra money you wouldn't have made, and it helped some of you save some money you were apt to lose. Since it's got value, we'll do it again, this time for three months out. What I'm talking about is a detailed look at which industries do the best and the worst in May, June, and July. The table below tells it like it is. The "% Gain" column tells you how each sector has performed that particular month for the past 16 years, while the "% Up" number to the right of that average gain is how often that industry's stocks make a gain of ANY size for the month in question. I've added some color to highlight the best bullish and bearish bets. I've said it before but I'll say it again... trading nothing but the calendar is a mistake. But, ignoring the calendar is also a mistake. The most trade-worthy trends tend to be born out of a collection of clues, one of which is calendar tendencies. Other clues include key chart patterns and technical events, and fundamentals for that industry's most prolific stocks. Anyway, while I've given you one tool to use, if you're still looking for some more specific trading guidance, you want to go ahead and become a member of the Elite Opportunity service. In fact, if you're fearful this week's weakness from the broad market could turn into something much bigger, you definitely want to become an EO member. The value that John Monroe and his crew bring to the table really shines through when things get rocky for the market, as the Elite Opportunity team knows how to make money - and minimize risk - in an environment where everybody else is losing money. Don't be a victim of a falling market! Capitalize on it! Sign up for the Elite Opportunity newsletter today. Here's how. Or, just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/