Good Wednesday afternoon, friends and fellow traders. How is everything? Well, I think after today it's pretty clear that the pressure is on the bulls to do their job; the bears could simply coast from here and get some things done. That's not inherently a bearish call, mind you. I'm just saying, right now from a technical perspective, there's more resistance than support. I was somewhat prepared to talk/gripe about this very matter today. Then I read today's edition of the Elite Opportunity newsletter, and gained some much-needed perspective on the overall market right now. I'll share a bit of that insight in a moment, right after we take a closer detailed look at what's so frustrating about the market at this time. As the chart of the S&P 500 below shows, the index tried to crawl back above what used to be a floor at 1876, and even threatened the 20-day moving average line (blue) at 1886. When all was said and done though, the bulls couldn't even hang on to modest gains. The close of 1851.86 was the lowest close in months, even though we didn't make a new intraday low. There is a bastion of hope for the bulls. That is, there wasn't a lot of the volume behind today's weakness. All the same, it's really starting to look like the VIX is trending higher. One thing is for sure - there's a thick sandwich of resistance between 1876 and 1908. The bulls fooled around and let this develop. Doh! Don't freak out just yet though. On the weekly chart of the S&P 500 below, a huge floor at 1812 remains intact. Let's also not forget the market may need to actually push a tad below that support level just for a bit to convince everyone the worst is upon us before staging the surprise reversal. The market loves to fake people out. On the other hand, there's always a chance a break under 1812 is just a break under 1812, warning us things just went from bad to worse. I doubt that's the way things would take shape this time around though. A move to or below 1812 would represent a 15% correction from last year's peak. That should be enough to hit the market's proverbial reset button. Remember, with the exception of the energy sector, the rest of the market's sectors continue to do reasonably well earnings-wise, so we have no real evidence that a recession has started or will start soon... even though the recession rhetoric seems to be the "in thing" right now. As for what John Monroe told Elite Opportunity subscribers in today's newsletter, here's a key piece of it: "Basically, what continues to take place across the board, regardless of what instrument you're playing or looking at, is the markets continue to reward those who are willing to act against new short-term highs and new short-term lows. In other words, when the instrument in question breaches a level everyone is eyeing as being the savior for the idea in question, it goes the other way. The markets are clearly rewarding those who are willing to make a move against the maximum point of pessimism or optimism. I know that can be fairly frustrating, but isn't that pretty much how these markets have been behaving for quite some time? I don't expect that to change anytime soon." I only insert that little snippet today just because I know all this recent choppiness has been maddening. It's not you. It's the market. You're not doing anything wrong - you're just going to have to be patient and play the hand that's being dealt to you as best you can rather than holding out for hand the market may not deal to you for a long, long time. It's a piece of advice I can add to a lengthening list of wisdom nuggets John Monroe has passed along to me and other Elite Opportunity subscribers over the past couple of years. John's of sage advice also lends itself to my earlier point that the market may actually need to get just a little bit into a new low territory to begin a bullish reversal. If you're not currently an EO member, you're missing out. If nothing else, John can keep you grounded in reality. Thing is, he's been doing a lot more than that since day one - his mix of short-term and long-term stock picks has allowed my portfolio to make steady progress in all sorts of environments. Here's all you need to do to equip yourself to not only survive but thrive in all the market's environments. Or, just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ In any case, there's something else I wanted to show you today that may be more important than a look at the overall market. It took a while to take effect, but Janet Yellen was finally able to spook the U.S. dollar lower by the end of the session. Now Things Are Rollin' Over the past few days we've taken a couple looks at the U.S. Dollar Index, watching a break under a key support area around 97.4, and then break below the critical 200-day moving average line (green) at 96.85. Still wanting to move beyond any shadow of doubt, we waited to assume the worst until we saw the point where the greenback got punched so hard it just couldn't get up. Today looks like it was that day. For a brief while the index was back above Tuesday's close. Before the closing bell had a chance to ring, though, the sellers were tearing into it. While no one should ever say never, this may have been the straw that broke the camel's back. There's no technical floor or support area anywhere nearby. The next floor is below the 94.0 mark, and if that doesn't hold up - a distinct possibility - then there's no telling where this could go. Again, I don't see this as a bad thing even if some of the market's more popular pundits are concerned. While I understand the " why" behind their concern (it's ultimately a sign of economic weakness, as driven by the Fed's inability to push rates higher), I don't view that as an absolute situation. I think it's possible for the economy to remain strong, for earnings to grow, and for interest rates to remain stagnant all of the same time. It's a tightrope, to be sure. The global economy is getting pretty good at walking tightropes though. And let's not forget, the weaker the dollar, the stronger the price of oil. That being said... The market clearly doesn't think interest rates are even going to stagnate, let alone rise in a big way this year. Our chart of yields and Treasurys below is what it is. That is, a clear sign that interest rates are falling back, and bond prices are moving higher. This is all the end result of too much speculation that the Fed was going to go nuts with rate hikes this year. Now the pendulum is swinging the other way. For the record, I do think both of the trends on the chart above are now overextended and due for some pushback. The damage is done though. Trend lines have been broken. Just for a little extra perspective, here's the longer-term weekly chart of the same. There are absolute limits on how low yields can easily go. We're probably still at or near that point. Just because we're at that point, though, doesn't mean yields are in a position where they can only move higher indefinitely. My guess? I think either way, the burden of the exceedingly high U.S. dollar has finally created a situation that inherently pushes the dollar lower again. Remember, all things are cyclical. As for interest rates, I'd be willing to bet they're going to remain pretty suppressed for longer than most people might think. Talk to you tomorrow.