Happy hump-day, everybody. We're going to be short and sweet today, just because there's not much to talk about. We knew the market was poised to rollover by yesterday's close, and it looks like it's happening as of today. But, none of the major indices have broken down in a big way yet, so for the time being we're simply stuck in the middle... a place we've all gotten used to being this year.
Here's the chart of the S&P 500. As you can see, we just logged our second decidedly-bearish day in a row after the rally slowed last week. On the other hand, the S&P 500 seems to be finding something of a floor around the 50-day moving average line as well as at a former ceiling around 1994 (dashed). That's going to happen when traders don't quite know what to do next but feel like they have to do something.
Above the index is a layer of resistance between 2042 and 2060, though I have to say the lower border of that zone seems to be shaping up as the core of that ceiling's strength as a ceiling.
Here's a daily chart of the NASDAQ Composite. It's pretty much the same story, though a little less encouraging. How so? Unlike the S&P 500, the composite didn't even get to retest its prior peak before bumping into resistance at the 50-day moving average line and starting to peel back. Yet, like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ isn't exactly in a proven downtrend yet.
The big resistance level for the NASDAQ - and it's a BIG one - is clearly right around 4938, where a handful of moving average lines and band lines are about to converge.
As for what you're supposed to do about it, well, that depends.
To be perfectly honest, if you're looking to make decisions after the market closes or before the market opens the next day just by reading this newsletter, you may be missing out on most of the few opportunities the market is dishing out right now.
You may or may not have seen it, but MarketWatch ran an article today explaining in no uncertain terms that in 2015, the bulk of the market's movement happened after hours, when the market was closed. By that, the research simply concluded by waiting until the next day to make a trade meant you missed the bulk of any movement, since the market either opened much higher or much lower than where it closed the previous day. The intraday gains just weren't all that great.
This isn't the way things always are. Sometimes, there are just as many if not more gains made during trading hours (from open to close) than there are overnight (from close to open). For the bulk of 2015, though, you were far better served by being in a trade before the close and holding it until the next day... or holding it to whenever.
Some will say if you plan on holding a trade for more than a day or two then it doesn't really matter. I don't disagree with the concept of the argument. But, knowing how traders think and behave, I know getting in a day late here or getting out a day late there can nickel and dime your portfolio to death. You still would have been far better off making trading decisions during the day rather than after it closes regardless of your timeframe, because that's when you have control of what happens.
Clearly this presents a problem for most of you guys and gals who rely only on this newsletter for trading and investing guidance; the SCN newsletter is only delivered after the market closes, which means you're behind when trading starts the next day. The only way around or over that hurdle is by becoming a member of the Elite Opportunity newsletter, which is published on an intraday basis to avoid this very challenge. In fact, John Monroe over at the EO issued another trading idea today that - though is apt to be held for a few days - needed to be acted on during the trading day today to adequately maximize its upside.
I know it seems like a small thing, but trust me when I say it's a hundred little things like that which make or break a portfolio.
Here's how to get more out of the market.
Uh Oh - It Just Happened
To be perfectly honest, I'm surprised the media didn't pick up on this. I guess there was too much else going on today to make time. I think it's a big deal though, so I want to make sure all of you know it.... the U.S. Dollar Index made a lower low today after making a lower high three weeks ago. This is the first time we've seen this much technical weakness from the greenback in over a year.
Just for the record, I still contend the dollar will remain volatile, bullishly and bearishly. Heck, I'm counting on a bounce rather soon now. But, with the entanglement of moving averages acting as a ceiling now - along with the sheer downward momentum that's developed - I don't see this broad downtrend reversing anytime soon.
This has repercussions, of course. One of them is a rebound in commodity prices... gold and oil, especially. Although crude didn't follow suit with a rally today, gold prices popped with the dollar's demise. A falling dollar also means we'll start to see some inflation, which may be healthy in our case right now.
Also, in general, bond yields and the dollar tend to move in the opposite direction, so this pullback from the greenback should serve up something of a tailwind for interest rates even though it didn't do so today.
Anyway, as always there was a bunch of great stuff posted at the site today, but seeing as how we're getting into the thick of earnings season I thought I'd first and foremost point you to the earnings previews.
Peter Graham had two for you today.... one for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and the other for Mattel (MAT). Both are closely-followed story stocks I know a bunch of you may be watching or own, so it might be wise to check the previews out before Thursday's close, which is when each company reports.
That's it for today. Check back in again on Thursday.