News Details – Smallcapnetwork
McDonald's May Be a Lost Cause. Plus, PharmaCyte is Revving Its Engine.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Good Wednesday afternoon, everybody. And, Happy Veterans Day! Not to sound too sappy, but we'd like to thank all you veterans who've done so much for our country. As tough as life can get sometimes, the easiest day for a soldier is still probably tougher than the worst imaginable day for a civilian... particularly those who've served overseas and/or seen combat. So, we thank you and salute you all for your service - you're the people who know all too well that "freedom isn't free," In any case, although banks and the post office were closed today, the market was open, meaning we have plenty to discuss. First and foremost, though we don't always talk about it, every week - almost every day - I look at the charts of all of our Featured Stocks to identify new buying or profit-taking opportunities. Action isn't merited very often, but I noticed something juicy I wanted to pass along to you today. Take a look at the nearby chart of PharmaCyte Biotech (PMCB). At first glance it may just look like its settling in after a lull, which materialized after a huge rebound effort in late-September and early-October. The longer I study this chart, though, the more I'm convinced PMCB is in a prime entry spot for newcomers right now. There are a couple of reasons I'm leaning in a bullish direction here. The first of them is the shape of some of the recent bars since late October. Although we've seen noticeably lower lows made a couple of the days since the mid-October pullback, on the days where the selling was the steepest we also saw the biggest intraday rebounds. In other words, the bears can't hold PMCB down very well - the buyers are plowing in when the price is at its lowest, pushing the stock back up to near those days' highs. It's a subtle clue that all the profit-taking may have run its course and we're transitioning back into a net-bullish environment. The second big reason I suspect PharmaCyte shares are gearing up for a move higher now: The 50-day moving average line (purple) has been a pretty good support level since being retested in late October. The bulls have yet to let PMCB slip under it. There's a reason. That reason is, the buyers have drawn a line in the sand. Let's take the hint. Although the normal standards of technical analysis don't often apply to small and microcap stocks priced under $1.00, PMCB has recently proven the exception to that norm. You only have to go back to the October high to start seeing hints of this. That's when PharmaCyte bumped into its 200-day moving average line (green)... the grandmother of all moving average lines, and arguably the prototypical technical analysis tool. I firmly believe that rollover was primarily started by the market's notion that PMCB should hit a wall there... at least temporarily. By that same token, I firmly believe the 50-day moving average line is acting as a floor for the same reason - that's where traders think PharmaCyte Biotech shares should find a floor and rekindle the bigger-picture advance. Welcome to Trading Psychology 101, where figuring out how other traders think and will act is just as important in the short run as identifying underestimated stocks is. Either way, we like PharmaCyte in the long run based on the potential of its pipeline, which, as Bryan Murphy pointed out today, may still be underappreciated in light of who the company has guiding the development of Cell-in-a-Box as a treatment for pancreatic cancer. This guy truly may be the Superman of the pancreatic cancer world, and who he knows - and who wants to associate with him - bodes well for PharmaCyte... now, and down the road. McDonald's is Lost It's got nothing to do with small caps. I just thought this was interesting, and telling. It appears McDonald's (MCD) has added fried cheese sticks to its menu ... 3 for $1.00. From what I saw, this was a nationwide rollout to all 14,000 or so U.S. units, which is a bit un-McDonald's like, as the company usually tests these things on a small scale first. On the other hand, the word is that these mozzarella sticks have been available in some places for a while. Also being added to the menu (at least in some McDonald's restaurants) are lobster rolls, chorizo breakfast bowls and made-to-order salads. I applaud the willingness to try new things. I really do. For the same reason a diversified portfolio is good for investors, a diversified menu is usually good for a restaurant since it widens that restaurant's appeal. In this particular case though, I think McDonald's has gone off the deep end in more ways than one. First (though not foremost), I'm not so sure people who step foot in a McDonald's are prepared for fried mozzarella sticks. Certainly some people will buy them; you can sell some of anything if you offer it to enough people. The question is, will this item actually drive sales growth for the struggling fast-food chain. I don't see it happening. The demand just can't become strong enough, as even by fast-food standards fried cheese sounds a little heavy on the stomach as a side with a cheeseburger. Maybe as a snack? We'll see. I just don't see consumers warming up to the idea, especially if the restaurants don't do them to absolute perfection (and we know that's been a struggle for the company). . The bigger reason I see this not doing one thing to benefit McDonald's: It further complicates an already complicated menu that most of the restaurant's workers already struggle to handle well. Just as a refresher, it was only in May of this year the company made a deliberate effort to "streamline" its burgeoning menu by cutting out a good-sized chunk of it. That initiative was put into place by then-new CEO Steve Easterbrook, who's now leading the charge in the exact opposite direction, beginning with the addition of all-day breakfast. It raises the question... is the McDonald's menu overwhelming for workers and customers, or isn't it? First it was too big, and now it's not big enough. That's a rhetorical question, of course. In a bigger, philosophical sense, I think we can infer the completely opposite initiatives are a sign that McDonald's doesn't really know what it's doing and has gotten downright desperate to stop the revenue bleeding. If that's really the case, then MCD owners may want to start entertaining the possibility that the company has absolutely no idea how to get from where it is now to where it wants to be. It's just throwing spaghetti on the wall, so to speak, to see what sticks. That said, if the next thing to show up on a McDonald's menu is spaghetti, be afraid. Be very afraid. My fear for MCD investors is that McDonald's is in trouble not because of the menu, but because of a changing consumer mindset that just doesn't want fast food and all that comes with it. This is the new model for kid-friendly restaurants.