News Details – Smallcapnetwork
2013's First Big Trading Theme Just Revealed Itself
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Remember a couple of weeks ago when we said the increase in payroll taxes as of January 1st wouldn't be a big deal? Specifically, we concluded "It's more of a non-issue than an issue, and though taking $110 billion out of consumers' pockets is never a good thing, it doesn't look like it's going to kill the economy the way some pundits are talking like it will." It was the minority opinion at the time, but we stuck to our guns, knowing that consumers often say one thing and then do another. In this case, we were pretty certain consumers wouldn't reel in their spending in 2013 despite the fact that they're all earning 2% less than they were last year, thanks to an across-the-board increase in income tax rates. Yeah, well, this morning we heard February's retail sales spending results - they were up 0.6%, NOT counting the surge in gas prices. It's not exactly a sign of a nosedive for the economy. And just to be clear, that's a 0.6% increase from January's total retail spending. On a year-over-year basis, retail spending in February of this year was about 4.0% better than the year ago total. Factoring in inflation - which at 2.0% hasn't really been that bad - spending is still up, even if not sharply. It jives with the same point we made last week about mediocre jobs growth... the economy may not be great, but it's not in shambles either. It's just tepid enough to keep the Fed pumping. It sure beats the alternative, but more than that, it's good news for stock-pickers. Anyway, I didn't come here to talk about the so-so nature of the economy. Let's talk stocks, and look at what we need to know or do right now. Zzzzzzz Did you fall asleep today watching the market today? It wouldn't have been hard to do, given the second day of lethargic action. Thing is, you might want to prep for more of the same no-net-movement. To give credit where it's due, this afternoon's edition of the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity explained it way more efficiently that I could have penned today, saying "It can take days or even weeks for a potential top to reveal itself no matter what it looks or feels like at the moment. The media will always make a trader or investor feel remorse in hindsight. They're the best at coming up with every reason why a stock or index did what it did, albeit in hindsight of course." I already knew it, but to be perfectly honest, I just didn't want to hear it. I suspect most of you already knew it too, and also didn't want to hear it from me. Sorry. Thing is, knowledge is power, and whether we like the truth or not, we're all better off for it if only because we can now adjust our expectations accordingly. What does any of that have to do with today? Because the market's tepid 0.1%, low-volume gain underscores our recent message that investors just don't have any conviction right now, in either direction. The NASDAQ's chart illustrates that point the best today. Volume's been waning since the late-February bottom, with today's volume being one of the weakest for the year so far. What happened to the fireworks and buying spree that should accompany a move to new multi-year highs, not to mention new all-time highs for some indices? The fact that we're not seeing any of that remains a philosophical problem. Like the guys at the SCN EO said, however, it can take days if not weeks for a top to reveal itself. This is just the beginning of the process, if that's what this is. As it stands right now though, we simply don't have enough information to jump to a conclusion despite the fact that we're still thinking like bears. We're not going to try and read something into a chart that's not really there. Don't worry - we'll be the first ones to let you once something concrete develops. In the meantime, something more important flew onto the radar today. Hot Button Alert Yes, we're the same people who just told you the market's likely to be a little lethargic until further notice while traders figure out if they want to be bullish or bearish. That doesn't mean every stock is going to be stuck in the mud for a while though. Investing fads - or themes - come and go. For true long-termers, none of them really matter. For traders though, these fads are what they live for. A quick (even if temporary) surge played just a few times a year can lead to some serous gains, IF that trader spots the beginning and end of said trend and times his trade right. One example of a recent hot fad or theme was last year's rally from homebuilder stocks like Toll Brothers (TOL) and Pulte Homes (PHM). Granted, the housing market was recovering, and these stocks deserved to be bid up. Let's face it though... euphoria and speculation gave these rallies a little extra juice. When it was all said and done, this segment of the market had rallied as much as 55% at one point. That's some serious opportunity for an active trader who had foresight and guts. In 2011, the hot, buzz-driven trade was social media. In 2010, tablets and next-generation smartphones drove trading decisions while grabbing the media's attention. You get the idea. We think we've spotted one of 2013's potential hot buttons - cybersecurity. This isn't the first time cybersecurity has been on investors' minds. The issue also came up as sort of a sub-fad in 2010 when the proliferation of smartphones was accompanied by concern that all the data being sent and received by these mini-computers may not be secure. It was a problem, because some of that information should have been secure and protected. Though the problem's burner got set to low, it never really went away. Well guys, a new and much more potent variant of America's cyberthreat problem just landed on our doorstep this week. Michelle Obama may have had her personal info hacked... THE FIRST LADY OF THE UNITED STATES. Yeah, we may have a problem. That news set off the usual subsequent wave of related news, and we learned that BP (BP) is attacked by cyberthreats 50,000 times a day. So far the company has fended them off, but it only takes one successful hack to screw things up really, really bad. The JPMorgan Chase (JPM) website was put out of commission by a cyberattack on Tuesday. Even Beyonce and Jay-Z were recent hack attack victims, though the list of all cyberthreat victims (corporate as well as individual) is a lengthy one. Not that hacking wasn't an ongoing problem before this week, but for whatever reason it hit a critical mass this week and became a blatant problem with a dire need for a fix in investors' eyes... where it matters most. Companies that can provide the next generation of cyberdefense stand to win big. The good/bad news is, there aren't a lot of companies that operate in this space. Checkpoint Systems (CKP), Fortinet (FTNT), and Palo Alto (PANW) are probably the best-known in the industry. And, though the opportunity and catalyst is there, there's still the question of timing any trade - when would you buy or sell any of these names? That's something you'll ultimately have to gauge for yourself when the time comes. We just wanted to plant the seed in your head, because the cybersecurity industry is on pace to grow from 2011's $60 billion to $80 billion by 2017. And frankly, given the recent rise in cyberthreats from China, that growth outlook may be on the low side. You know who can help you pick a cybersecurity stock, and tell you when to buy or sell it? The SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the free version of the SCN newsletter can paint a broad brush stroke (like this year's cybersecurity fad), but not the fine details (like trading a particular stock). If you want that kind of great service, then you want to become a subscriber to the SCN EO. Stock picks, market calls, and good old-fashioned savvy are what current subscribers are getting every day. If the right cybersecurity stocks presents the right opportunity at the right time, you can count on the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity letting you know about it. That's what they do. Go here and see what it's all about it. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/