Welcome to the weekend, one and all, yet once again it looks like at least some of you are going to kick off the weekend with a little snow. Ugh. Stupid groundhog. Let's see... six more weeks of winter following Groundhog Day on February 2nd would put the end of winter at March 16th. Yeah, I'm pretty sure my cabin fever will push me over the proverbial edge before that date. If the newsletter starts getting weird between now and then, you'll know why. Either way, there are a couple of housekeeping items we need to take care of before we get into the stock-related stuff. First and foremost, don't forget today is Valentine's Day. Hopefully most of you already took care of what you need to get, or buy, or do for your sweethearts, but if you didn't, you're not alone. There were a bunch other guys standing in the card aisle with me at the store last night, and the clerk said they'd be absolutely swamped - mostly by guys - today, just like every other year. Don't forget to pick something up ASAP if you read this sometime Friday afternoon and still don't have a gift to give. Second, we're not publishing anything on Monday because the exchanges will be closed in observance of George Washington's birthday. But the holiday is actually called President's Day, you say? Yes, it is, but for some reason the exchanges are closing specifically to honor George Washington, as the holiday was originally named and never technically changed ... even though the day has been unofficially changed over the years. Don't ask me why, or why it matters, because I have no earthly idea. Now, onto our market talk. You Ask, We Answer: Gold I know I've mentioned this to you before, but it's been a while since we've made the point. So, we'll make it again - if you have a question about anything we've written in the newsletter or at the site, just shoot us an e-mail and we'll respond. We want this to be a collaborative and interactive experience for all of you, and we read every single e-mail we get. Anyway, we got an e-mail yesterday from one of our readers asking about our take on gold. Since I'm sure there are more of you that probably have the same question but just didn't ask it, I want to respond here for everyone. Peter writes: Your unfavorable scenario for gold does not seem to be unfolding this time. Are you sticking to your bearish prediction? Thanks for the question Peter. Most importantly, no, we're not sticking with our bearish prediction... at least not in the short run. In the long run, we are still bearish, though we'll be able to explain things a lot better next week. You may recall with our last look at gold back on January 22nd we were bearish on the commodity because we were bullish on interest rates and bullish on the U.S. dollar. Well, neither the dollar nor the ten-year yield has moved any higher since then. In fact, both have moved lower in the meantime, and gold has moved higher accordingly. Thing is, the underpinnings that are bullish for the U.S. dollar and bond yields are still in place, even if neither of those indices are rising and putting pressure on gold. The problem is, "should" and "reality" are two different things. If gold's going higher, whether or not the reason is sound, it's going higher, and you don't want to stand in front of a moving train. As for what we're going to know next week that we don't know now, though it's more of a long-term factor, the World Gild Council's supply and demand report for Q4 should be published sometime early next week. You may recall that we've seen real demand - as in actual buying of gold - slip for several quarters now, which is why we've been leaning bearishly on gold. While I don't expect that trend to have changed in the fourth quarter, we'll let the facts speak for themselves when we get them. Stay tuned for that data and an update on our chart of it. Again though, that's long-term data, and the near-term ebb and flow for gold may not be affected by the bigger-picture supply and demand. The irony is, while the short-term trend has been decidedly bullish since early January, today's bar for the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) looks like something of a blowoff top, meaning there are no more gains to be had with this leg. The opening gap, the doji-shaped bar... it all suggests gold is ready to pivot come Monday. The fact that the ten-year yield is starting to rise again will also put pressure on gold prices sooner than later. As is always the case with gold though, I'd rather see a trend get underway before presuming it's going to happen. Again, next week's report from the World Gold Council will really help paint the bigger picture here. Still Chugging, But a Ceiling is in Sight Well folks, so far the market's behaving as it implied it would on Thursday and Tuesday, and it's behaving that way in spite of Wednesday's red flag (which suggested a reversal was in the cards). Although volume was remarkably weak today, as we've explained to you a couple of times this week already, there's a little gas left in the rally's tank. We may as well play it, even if we're pretty sure it's not going to last forever. My guess? I'm still expecting the S&P 500 to brush the 1850 level again before a rollover could start to materialize. Barring that, a key bearish reversal day would prompt me to switch to a bearish stance before hitting 1850. Anything else, and the bulls are still in the driver's seat. What's a key bearish reversal? We'll talk about it if-and-when the time comes. Take a look. You can also see how the VIX renewed its downtrend again today, albeit modestly. Its key floor is still somewhere around the 12-ish area, consisting of straight-line horizontal support and a lower Bollinger band that's rising fast. I'd love for my pessimism to be misplaced, and watch the S&P 500 blast past 1850 and not look back. I'm just not hopeful, you know? And, last but not least, another round of congratulations is in order for SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity members. Their new trade on Twitter (TWTR) is now up somewhere around 10%, and still going strong. That's not the amazing part though. What's so impressive to me is how today was the first day a bunch of locked-up Twitter shares became free-trading stock. One would have thought with all that supply hitting the market that the price of TWTR would have plunged. Nope. The stock was up nearly 2% today. Looks like most everyone is keeping their shares. 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