News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Feature: Stocks or Fixed Income - Ratio Still Bullish. Xtreme Revenue.
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February 2, 2024

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Dow Jones 10554.29 -80.09 9:43 am PST, August 16, 2005  NASDAQ 2148.87 -18.17 For info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com S & P 500 1225.41 -8.46 Change your subscription status here Russell 2000 657.09 -8.55 VOLUME 05: ISSUE 62  Feature: Stocks or Fixed Income - Ratio Still Bullish. Xtreme Revenue. Before we discuss whether it's better to currently own stocks or fixed income, a brief recap of what you may have missed on the SCBLOG. Over the last two weeks, we've suggested taking partial profits in Eden Energy (OTCBB: EDNE) as the shares moved through $9. Then, as the shares subsequently moved lower, we suggested a repurchase at $5 and change. We originally alerted the readership to Eden at $2.80 in late April. Eden shares are now flirting with $7.  We also updated our thinking and strategy on Bottomline Technologies (NASDAQ: EPAY), Informatica (NASDAQ: INFA), Novelos (OTCBB: NVLT) and Spectrum (OTCBB: SPSC).  Investors really do need to keep an eye on the SCBLOG, whether through the simple RSS feed or by just adding it (and the SmallCap Digest) onto your MyYahoo page--the dead-easy links are found on both the SCBLOG and SmallCap Digest pages. Daily visits are rising fast and it is quickly becoming an extremely useful tool for investors who wish to keep up with those material ''between newsletter' happenings. Stocks? Bonds? What's your guess? There are a several different ways of calculating the market's position using the S&P Earnings yield and a fixed income yield. The resultant number gives a decent snapshot of whether stocks or fixed income are more constructive/profitable, given that return. Over the years, I've heard Money Managers continually quote the figure, so I thought it would be useful to bring you into the fold. For purposes of this discussion, we'll use the S&P 500 Earnings Yield and the current risk-free 3-month T-Bill rate.  Very simply, when the current T-Bill yield is divided by the S&P Earnings Yield, the resultant number denotes the whether stocks or fixed income will tend to do better in the future. A number above 1.1 tends to favor fixed income, as stocks appear more vulnerable to correction, while anything under 0.9 favors stocks. The ratio is currently around 0.59. Here's the chart: S&P 500 earnings for 2005 are projected to be around $75.50. If we divide that number by the cash S&P 500 value of around 1230 we get an earnings yield of about 6 percent. If we divide that number into the current three-month T-Bill yield at around 3.5 percent, the resultant number is .59, or well below the 0.9 threshold level for considering a switch from equities to fixed income. If one looks at the chart, particularly when the ratio exceeded 2.0 in 2000, the resultant coming correction was fairly apparent. The Fed Funds Rate was also 6.5 percent in May 2000, so a bond buy then obviously made sense over stocks. The S&P 500 index headed down until late 2002 into early 2003 when the ratio moved back into bullish territory and signaled a turn for stocks. Very simply, the ratio shows that when the S&P 500 earnings yield is markedly higher than the fixed income yield, investors tend to decide to assume the risk of stocks versus fixed income for superior returns. When the ratio was at 2.0, T-Bill's or bonds obviously made more sense than stocks. As the ratio dropped below1.0, picking away at favored stocks and sectors made more sense. For 2006, the S&P 500 earnings projection is $82.97. No one doubts that rates will go up and take fixed income yields higher. I suspect that this ratio will continue to be constructive for stocks. As an exercise, if we do the calculation using the current S&P level, 2006 projected earnings and say a 4.00 T-Bill rate, we come up with a ratio of .58--still a decent rate for the owning stocks' case. It's a simple calculation that can tell investors much about the current and future state and direction of the markets. This indicator, while not the Holy Grail, is an indicative snapshot of the relationship and risk profile of owning stocks over fixed income or vice-versa over time. Thought you'd like to know...     MARKETNOTES: Xtreme Revenue. Xtreme (OTCBB: XTME) reported great revenues this am--$552,300 for the second quarter versus $16,800 for the same quarter 2004. We've profiled this unique and fast growing company for a while now and suggest that risk-oriented investors get on board this specialty boat manufacturer as 2005-2006 looks to be an excellent growth period for shareholders. With the shares trading around 15-18 cents and a market cap of $2.75 million, this share price likely won't last for long. The Company is appearing on more radar screens as evidenced by increasing trade volumes, so a position in the spec end of the portfolio, we believe, should yield a good return over the next 6-12 months. (Release below).     Press Release Source: Xtreme Companies, Inc. Xtreme Posts Record 2nd Quarter Revenue Tuesday August 16, 10:04 am ET WASHINGTON, Mo., Aug. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Xtreme Companies, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: XTME - News) manufacturer of mission-specific Fire-Rescue and Patrol boats and the exclusive marketer and distributor of the 'Challenger Offshore' line of boats, announced today that it posted record revenue of $552,300 for the quarter ended June 30, 2005 vs. $16,801 for the quarter ended June 30, 2004. The loss per share also decreased to (.03) per share for the quarter ended June 30, 2005 vs. (.06) per share for the quarter ended June 30, 2004. The Company's complete financial results are available on its Form 10-QSB for the period ended June 30, 2005. Xtreme CEO Kevin Ryan stated, "We are extremely pleased to announce these record results. It is clear our business model, which had taken some time to roll out is beginning to pay big dividends. This past quarter we started to gain traction with Fire & Rescue boat sales through Homeland Security grants and increased our efficiency in marketing, sales and production of the Challenger Offshore line. We also added a top tier financial professional as our CFO to assist us in managing what I believe will continue to be a significant period of growth for Xtreme." About Xtreme Companies, Inc. Xtreme Companies, Inc. is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of mission-specific Fire-Rescue and Patrol boats used in emergency, surveillance and defense deployments. The boats have been marketed and sold directly to fire and police departments, the U.S. Military and coastal port authorities throughout the United States. Additionally, Xtreme is the exclusive marketer and distributor for Marine Holdings, Inc. (MHI) d/b/a Challenger Offshore which manufactures semi-custom fiberglass boats of 19' to 97' in length, which include leisure, performance, fishing and motor yachts. MHI is best known for their products that compete directly with the industry's largest boat producers. Internationally known race driver and designer Don Aronow, credited as being the architect of the performance boat industry, designed and created some of the hull technologies today used by Challenger Offshore. Mr. Aronow has also been credited with creating companies such as Cigarette, Donzi, Formula, Apache and Magnum. Xtreme holds an option to purchase 100% of the outstanding shares of MHI by March 2006. For more information you may visit please visit www.xtremecos.com and www.challengeroffshore.com. Xtreme's public financial information and filings can be viewed at www.sec.gov. Forward-Looking Statements This release contains forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, statements concerning our business and possible or assumed future results of operations. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements for many reasons including: our ability to continue as a going concern, adverse economic changes affecting markets we serve; competition in our markets and industry segments; our timing and the profitability of entering new markets; greater than expected costs, customer acceptance of our products or difficulties related to our integration of the businesses we may acquire; and other risks and uncertainties as may be detailed from time to time in our public announcements and SEC filings. Although we believe the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, they relate only to events as of the date on which the statements are made, and our future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements may not meet these expectations. We do not intend to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this document to conform these statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations, except as required by law.   Contact:  Michael Novielli Chairman, Xtreme Companies, Inc. ph  (845)575-6770 mnovielli@xtremecos.com   Source: Xtreme Companies, Inc.     We Value Your Feedback Got comments, questions or suggestions? Send 'em on over: Editor@smallcapnetwork.com If you wish to send a written request or inquiry, please send it to our physical address: TGR Group, LLC 3525 Del Mar Heights Rd #334 San Diego, CA 92130 Subscribe Information is power and timely information is profitable. Become informed and profit from SmallCapDigest Profiles and Trading Alerts by becoming a Preferred Member today. There is no cost associated with your email subscription. 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