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VOLUME
05: ISSUE 62
Feature:
Stocks or Fixed Income - Ratio Still Bullish. Xtreme Revenue.
Before we discuss whether it's better
to currently own stocks or fixed income, a brief recap of what you may
have missed on the SCBLOG.
Over the last two weeks, we've suggested taking partial profits in Eden
Energy (OTCBB: EDNE)
as the shares moved through $9. Then, as the shares subsequently moved
lower, we suggested a repurchase at $5 and change. We originally alerted
the readership to Eden at $2.80 in late April. Eden shares are now flirting
with $7.
We also updated our thinking and
strategy on Bottomline Technologies (NASDAQ:
EPAY), Informatica (NASDAQ:
INFA), Novelos (OTCBB:
NVLT) and Spectrum (OTCBB:
SPSC).
Investors really do need to keep
an eye on the SCBLOG,
whether through the simple RSS feed or by just adding it (and the SmallCap
Digest) onto your MyYahoo page--the dead-easy links are found on both the
SCBLOG and SmallCap
Digest pages. Daily visits are rising fast and it is quickly becoming
an extremely useful tool for investors who wish to keep up with those material
''between newsletter' happenings.
Stocks? Bonds? What's your guess?
There are a several different ways
of calculating the market's position using the S&P Earnings yield and
a fixed income yield. The resultant number gives a decent snapshot of whether
stocks or fixed income are more constructive/profitable, given that return.
Over the years, I've heard Money Managers continually quote the figure,
so I thought it would be useful to bring you into the fold. For purposes
of this discussion, we'll use the S&P 500 Earnings Yield and the current
risk-free 3-month T-Bill rate.
Very
simply, when the current T-Bill yield is divided by the S&P Earnings
Yield, the resultant number denotes the whether stocks or fixed income
will tend to do better in the future. A number above 1.1 tends to favor
fixed income, as stocks appear more vulnerable to correction, while anything
under 0.9 favors stocks. The ratio is currently around 0.59. Here's the
chart:
S&P 500 earnings for 2005 are
projected to be around $75.50. If we divide that number by the cash S&P
500 value of around 1230 we get an earnings yield of about 6 percent. If
we divide that number into the current three-month T-Bill yield at around
3.5 percent, the resultant number is .59, or well below the 0.9 threshold
level for considering a switch from equities to fixed income.
If one looks at the chart, particularly
when the ratio exceeded 2.0 in 2000, the resultant coming correction was
fairly apparent. The Fed Funds Rate was also 6.5 percent in May 2000, so
a bond buy then obviously made sense over stocks. The S&P 500 index
headed down until late 2002 into early 2003 when the ratio moved back into
bullish territory and signaled a turn for stocks.
Very simply, the ratio shows that
when the S&P 500 earnings yield is markedly higher than the fixed income
yield, investors tend to decide to assume the risk of stocks versus fixed
income for superior returns. When the ratio was at 2.0, T-Bill's or bonds
obviously made more sense than stocks. As the ratio dropped below1.0, picking
away at favored stocks and sectors made more sense.
For 2006, the S&P 500 earnings
projection is $82.97. No one doubts that rates will go up and take fixed
income yields higher. I suspect that this ratio will continue to be constructive
for stocks. As an exercise, if we do the calculation using the current
S&P level, 2006 projected earnings and say a 4.00 T-Bill rate, we come
up with a ratio of .58--still a decent rate for the owning stocks' case.
It's a simple calculation that can tell investors much about the current
and future state and direction of the markets.
This indicator, while not the Holy
Grail, is an indicative snapshot of the relationship and risk profile of
owning stocks over fixed income or vice-versa over time.
Thought you'd like to know...
MARKETNOTES:
Xtreme Revenue.
Xtreme
(OTCBB: XTME) reported great revenues this am--$552,300 for the second
quarter versus $16,800 for the same quarter 2004. We've profiled this unique
and fast growing company for a while now and suggest that risk-oriented
investors get on board this specialty boat manufacturer as 2005-2006 looks
to be an excellent growth period for shareholders. With the shares trading
around 15-18 cents and a market cap of $2.75 million, this share price
likely won't last for long. The Company is appearing on more radar screens
as evidenced by increasing trade volumes, so a position in the spec end
of the portfolio, we believe, should yield a good return over the next
6-12 months. (Release below).
Press Release Source:
Xtreme Companies, Inc.
Xtreme Posts Record 2nd Quarter
Revenue
Tuesday August 16, 10:04
am ET
WASHINGTON, Mo., Aug.
16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Xtreme Companies, Inc. (OTC
Bulletin Board: XTME - News) manufacturer of mission-specific Fire-Rescue
and Patrol boats and the exclusive marketer and distributor of the 'Challenger
Offshore' line of boats, announced today that it posted record revenue
of $552,300 for the quarter ended June 30, 2005 vs. $16,801 for the quarter
ended June 30, 2004. The loss per share also decreased to (.03) per share
for the quarter ended June 30, 2005 vs. (.06) per share for the quarter
ended June 30, 2004. The Company's complete financial results are available
on its Form 10-QSB for the period ended June 30, 2005.
Xtreme CEO Kevin Ryan
stated, "We are extremely pleased to announce these record results. It
is clear our business model, which had taken some time to roll out is beginning
to pay big dividends. This past quarter we started to gain traction with
Fire & Rescue boat sales through Homeland Security grants and increased
our efficiency in marketing, sales and production of the Challenger Offshore
line. We also added a top tier financial professional as our CFO to assist
us in managing what I believe will continue to be a significant period
of growth for Xtreme."
About Xtreme Companies,
Inc.
Xtreme Companies, Inc.
is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of mission-specific Fire-Rescue
and Patrol boats used in emergency, surveillance and defense deployments.
The boats have been marketed and sold directly to fire and police departments,
the U.S. Military and coastal port authorities throughout the United States.
Additionally, Xtreme
is the exclusive marketer and distributor for Marine Holdings, Inc. (MHI)
d/b/a Challenger Offshore which manufactures semi-custom fiberglass boats
of 19' to 97' in length, which include leisure, performance, fishing and
motor yachts. MHI is best known for their products that compete directly
with the industry's largest boat producers. Internationally known race
driver and designer Don Aronow, credited as being the architect of the
performance boat industry, designed and created some of the hull technologies
today used by Challenger Offshore. Mr. Aronow has also been credited with
creating companies such as Cigarette, Donzi, Formula, Apache and Magnum.
Xtreme holds an option
to purchase 100% of the outstanding shares of MHI by March 2006. For more
information you may visit please visit www.xtremecos.com
and www.challengeroffshore.com.
Xtreme's public financial information and filings can be viewed at www.sec.gov.
Forward-Looking Statements
This release contains
forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, statements concerning
our business and possible or assumed future results of operations. Our
actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking
statements for many reasons including: our ability to continue as a going
concern, adverse economic changes affecting markets we serve; competition
in our markets and industry segments; our timing and the profitability
of entering new markets; greater than expected costs, customer acceptance
of our products or difficulties related to our integration of the businesses
we may acquire; and other risks and uncertainties as may be detailed from
time to time in our public announcements and SEC filings. Although we believe
the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable,
they relate only to events as of the date on which the statements are made,
and our future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements
may not meet these expectations. We do not intend to update any of the
forward-looking statements after the date of this document to conform these
statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations, except
as required by law.
Contact: Michael
Novielli
Chairman, Xtreme Companies,
Inc.
ph (845)575-6770
mnovielli@xtremecos.com
Source: Xtreme Companies,
Inc.
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