Well folks, that's day seven (and arguably day nine) of this range-bound trading action. It's quite remarkable, really. For the past year and a half the bulls and bears were exchanging blows, and stocks were anything but content to stand still. Now we can't get them to do anything but stand still. Since July 18th, the S&P 500 hasn't traded below 2160, and hasn't traded above 2175.
For a while I personally felt it was just the calm before the bearish storm, but now I can't be so sure. The longer the market moves sideways, the more developed this floor, or base, becomes, giving all the moving average lines and would-be buyers a chance to catch up to where stocks are. To heck with valuations. We'll just have to see how it pans out.
Take a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below to see what I mean.
What's curious about this chart is the fact that the VIX seems to be meeting resistance at its 20-day moving average line, having fallen back from its intraday highs each time the 20-day line has been met over the course of the past three days.
It's still all ultimately a recipe for disaster sooner than later. Too much confidence -- which is what the low VIX indicates -- on top of P/E ratios well above 20 can't last forever. The trick is finding when and where investors have that "aha" moment and figure out things don't make sense. If the market's not ready for that reality, don't fight the tape, you know?
In any case, we've got a few different items to cross off of our checklist today. We won't dwell too long on any of them, just to make sure we get to all of them in timely manner.
First and foremost (and consider this a freebie), the Black Ops Trader team recommended getting out of the VelocityShares 3X Inverse Crude ETN (DWTI) trade, walking away with the 33% gain reaped since July 19th.
I normally don't disclose the premium services' trades and activity, but since I explicitly brought that one up yesterday, I figured I at least owed you that much.
For those of you who looked closely at our chart of crude oil then and again today, you'll know oil didn't actually make it all the way to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line at $40.50 we discussed in Wednesday's newsletter. That's ok though, for a couple of reasons. One of them is the simple fact that while crude prices didn't make a perfect 5/8 retracement, DWTI did. The other reason? It's usually better to be early than late, getting in or getting out. I mean, there's nothing to complain about with a 33% gain reaped in a week and a half.
In any case, yes, the BOT team is more or less looking for some kind of bullish reversal from crude oil now.
If you missed the DWTI trade but don't want to miss the next big winner, join the Black Ops Trader newsletter today. The buzz is, there's going to be a price hike of sorts in the very near future, but people who sign up before the deadline will get the old price for as long as they remain a subscriber.
On other fronts, a couple of our Featured Stocks are getting real interesting on Thursday.
The first one is Intelligent Content Enterprises (ICEIF). As a quick refresher, this is the company that understands translating web-content written in English doesn't do anybody any good if the advertisements that go along with those words aren't translated as well... and all too often, the ads aren't translated. Its website www.digiwidgy.com not only translates the words, the ads and promotions are changed to make them relevant to the reader wherever he or she is.
Intelligent Content Enterprises is also the company that earlier in the week unveiled a new in-video advertising tool called Clix.Video.
It's not a new idea. Just go to YouTube watch anything. You'll see at last one -- though probably several -- boxes pop up you have to click on or close out to see your screen. In-video advertising just hasn't been done well. ICEIF's Clix.Video changes that, making advertisement more relevant and more fluid as the digital video is playing.
I can't help but wonder if it's the unveiling of Clix.Video on Tuesday that kick-started one of the better reversal efforts I've seen in a while.
Take a look at the nearby chart of ICEIF. On Monday we see a rather pronounced high-volume setback which in retrospect looks like a capitulation day. On Tuesday, Wednesday, and today we see nothing but decided "ups." If the torch was truly passed back to the bulls (and it certainly looks like that's the case), now might be a good time to step into the mostly-overlooked growth story.
The other Featured Stock of interest today is Pressure BioSciences (PBIO), which we first introduced back on July 21st. It's not off and running yet, but it could be soon... real soon.
The big line in the sand here is $0.45. That's where PBIO has been hitting a technical ceiling for nearly three weeks now. It's interesting, because the bulls keep trying. Eventually they'll topple the resistance level, and with as much pent-up energy as there is here, once the ceiling is out of the way we could see some real fireworks.
That's not the only thing we see going on with the chart of Pressure BioSciences, however.
Take another look at PBIO. Without overthinking it, what we see here is a stairstep pattern of two steps forward and one step back. It's been happening since late last year. May and June look like a step back, and July so far looks like the beginning of two steps forward. It sounds crazy, but often, once the pattern is established traders keep repeating it. If it repeats this time, PBIO could move to the $0.60's in relatively short order.
That's it for today. I will go ahead and let you know we'll probably have a new trading idea for you next week, looking to strike while the small cap iron is hot. We'll try and let you know more about an exact date in the meantime. Also in the meantime maybe the market will get off the fence. Wouldn't that be nice, to actually have something to talk about?
Stay tuned.