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The Huge Thing Wrong With Monday's Gain
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Welcome back from the weekend, one and all. We hope everybody had a good one. The market was a little up and a lot down on Monday, but by the time the closing bell rang it managed to end the session at 2021.91, up 0.48%. All in all the action was pretty predictable. Friday's drubbing was rough, and last week was a pretty big loser. Some stragglers probably felt like they had to dump shares while they still could. By mid-day, however, the bulls were already testing the waters again. That hammer-shaped bar today after a sizeable pullback says a reversal/bounce is in the works. Like we said, it's all pretty typical action. The catch: Don't assume this V-shaped reversal is going to go anywhere. Stocks could rally for a couple of days and still not actually break above their key technical ceilings right now. For the S&P 500, that's the convergence of several moving average lines around 2062. A little ebb and flow doesn't change the bigger trend. The real story here, however, is the NASDAQ Composite. As suspected, that intermediate-term support line (black, dashed) we thought could be an inflection point ended up being an inflection point. All it took was a kiss of that line to draw some buyers back in. Just like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ isn't above any of the key lines it needs to be above to suggest there's a bullish trend in place. The buyers may take a decent swing here and still not change that fact. In other words, it might take the bears a couple of tries here to tip the market over and push it below its support level. We'll just have to wait and see. In any case, as we mentioned on Thursday there's just something not quite right about the "good" days for the market. Today's gain was no exception. Specifically, although the market was up, there were far more decliners than advancers today, and there was far more bearish volume than bullish volume. How does that happen? Good question. The answer is, some of the market's biggest stocks managed to make progress. Broadly speaking though, today's gain lacked the participation we'd like to see to get really bullish. Add it to the list of reasons we're not yet nibbling on what looks like a bullish reversal. This could just be a breather for the bears. Adding to the indecision is this week's impending news about interest rates. A rate hike is a foregone conclusion, although at this point it seems like investors are content to wait and see how things shake out anyway. There's just something about seeing the news in print to hammer a theory home. It may force everyone to play their hand, so to speak. I can't say it's surprising that it's all happening right around the time the bulls are going to have to make a decision about a Santa Claus rally either. As for how it's all going to shake out, I think John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity has the best grip on what's going on and where it's all going. This is part of what he told EO subscribers today: "When you consider everything we continue to point out from a technical perspective, the bigger question at this point isn't a matter of whether or not stocks are going to rebound, it's simply a matter of when. Based on what's taking place so far this morning, it would be no surprise to see the NASDAQ find its way to that trend line we've pointed to on so many occasions, while the S&P 500 potentially breaks the 2,000 level. The move would not only support a potential reversal off of a key logical level on the NASDAQ, a break of 2,000 on the S&P 500 would likely trigger enough stop losses out there to put the index in a position to rally once again. This all comes only a few days away from what many are viewing as the single most important Fed announcement in years. Coincidence? I definitely don't think so. At this point, with all of the negative rhetoric coming from the financial media in recent days regarding high yield re-pricing, valuations and global economic concerns, it actually creates a perfect environment for Wall Street to start climbing a wall of worry. In other words, a surprisingly strong reversal in stocks." John had a lot more for Elite Opportunity subscribers, but I've probably already said too much. Besides, I think the smart thing to do at this time is simply wait to see how things unfurl from here. That being said... This is one of those situations where stocks can and will stop and turn on a dime in the middle of the day. Things should be wild on Wednesday, before and particularly after the rate-hike decision. I can also say with lots of confidence Thursday's going to be just as hot and cold, as the knee-jerk reaction to the interest rate decision cools off and people start to take on longer-term positions. We're certainly going to do our best to help walk you through it after the close on both of those days, but we're in a situation where you really need some intraday advice. That's where the Elite Opportunity can do what the newsletter you're reading right now can't - give you some real-time trading advice. I know I wouldn't want to try and navigate Wednesday's and Thursday's action without John's perspective and tips. Here's how you can help yourself by signing up for the EO newsletter, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/