Good morning all, or possibly good afternoon depending on when you read this. Hope you had a great weekend. Before we get into today's analysis of the indexes and what we can be looking for in the days ahead, we thought we'd provide a quick update on the four remaining open trades we have left from suggested entries in recent weeks and months, depending on which idea we're referring to.
We suggested getting long shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) at $9.80 back on the 20th of November. The stock found a significant amount of buying interest on the heels of our suggested entry running to a recent high of just over $12 per share for roughly a 23% gain. We mentioned recently the stock may want to consolidate between $11 and $12 per share for the rest of the year, and so far that appears to be exactly what the stock wants to do. The longer it can trade sideways in this range, the better we believe its prospects are for the new year. With the Company's highly anticipated launch of its new OS and BB10 slated for the first quarter, we continue to expect good performance out of the stock. However, in the best interest of sound trading strategies, you may want to employ a trailing stop or at the very least a stop loss around your entry to protect any potential downside in the stock. We've got no technical or fundamental reason to believe at this point that the stock is going to underperform our recent analysis, however, it's still prudent to protect against any negative surprises.
As for our suggested entry into shares of Forest Labs (FRX) back on the 26th of October, the developer, manufacturer, and marketer of branded forms of ethical drug products primarily in the United States and Europe finally got some love today with an outperform upgrade from Cowen. Our context for the FRX position was both technical and fundamental as we believe the stock has an excellent product pipeline and poses as a strong potential takeout candidate. Currently, shares of FRX are up just over 7% from our initial entry, so no harm no foul at this point. We'll continue to stick with FRX as long as the stock continues to cooperate. Cowen's upgrade this morning definitely doesn't hurt its prospects.
CRAY has been performing nicely in recent weeks. This is probably our longest open position to date. Although we have had a good number of trades throughout the year that we've since closed out for some tremendous gains, we did suggest CRAY as more of a low risk longer-term play. Sure enough, the stock has started to get some positive attention of late with shares of the Super Computer Maker breaking above $15 per share for the first time in about seven years. While we're up over 20% on the stock from our initial entry, we continue to believe the stock has more room to grow. I wouldn't necessarily open any new positions in the stock at this point though, since it may be subject to a breather in the days or weeks ahead. However, if you think the fundamentals in CRAY are as strong as we believe, entering on any significant pullback may prove prudent down the road.
The last of our current open trades, Zynga (ZNGA) continues to behave well enough. Although this isn't the most fundamentally attractive stock on Wall Street, our context for entering shares of ZNGA leaned heavily toward the technical side. While many investors have tried to catch this falling knife for profits ever since its IPO, we patiently waited until we saw a key technical reversal in its chart. Again, we're up roughly 20% from our initial entry as the stock continues to hunt for some follow through. We're using our entry as our stop on the idea, so let's continue to keep a close eye here and see if the stock can find another strong move up. This could be one to watch in 2013 as the Company continues to shift its online and mobile gaming model. They've got plenty of cash to get it done, we'll just have to see if they can execute.
All of our twenty three other open positions for 2012 have since been closed out with many of those ideas yielding anywhere from modest 10% returns to as high as 130% for the year. It's been a good year to say the least. On to the indexes and what we're looking for in the days ahead.
The markets still appear to be hunting for some leadership as both the DOW and S&P 500 continue to hover right around their 5/8 retracement levels from the September highs to the November lows. All very logical to this point, and as a matter of fact, the longer these indexes can trade around current levels , the stronger case we can make for the bullish argument. We'll reiterate we need to see closes above certain levels before we'll be convinced Santa is going to show up and reward the bulls for their recent resilience over the last few weeks. Although there hasn't been much of a swing either way over the last week or so, we do anticipate that to change pretty darn soon. With options expiring a week from this coming Friday, we're likely going to get some volatility the closer and closer we get to year-end options expiration.
I've included a daily chart layover here of both the S&P 500 (green bars) and the DOW (blue bars). While the S&P has been the strongest of the four major indexes in recent weeks, the DOW has mustered enough strength over the last few trading days to finally catch up to the S&P. Although both of these indexes have outperformed the two major NASDAQ indexes since the markets' November lows, we have no reason to believe at this point there exists early signs of a major divergence between tech and the rest of the markets. Reason being, tech has been the biggest market gainer for quite some time now, and has been our leading indicator for technical analysis when it comes to determining where the markets want to go. One month of index divergence does not a trend make.
With that being said, even if the S&P and/or DOW move slightly higher, I wouldn't necessarily run out telling all of your friends and colleagues the worst is over just yet. Of course we'd love for that to be the case, and it very well might be, but in the best interest of keeping it real, we'll continue to stay focused on the NASDAQ indices in an effort to determine where things are headed in the weeks and months ahead. I've also included a daily chart of the NASDAQ Composite here for your review. If you're curious where the NASDAQ 100 fits into this picture, it has slightly been lagging the Composite since stocks like Apple (AAPL) make up more of the NDX's weight than that of the Comp., and with Apple continuing to take a pounding, you can much pretty much attribute the NDX's lagging nature lately to just that. By the way, didn't we tell you Apple had seen its better days back when the stock was hovering around $700 per share? Choose to ignore us at your own discretion. :-)
Anyhow, we mentioned all last week the Composite needed to break and close above the 3X3 DMA (blue line) on its daily chart if the markets were going to grind higher, and that it needed to happen by close of market today. Well, as you can see, it's no coincidence the Comp. continues to struggle to break above that key displaced moving average. If it can close above it today, we'll be in a good position to see another decent leg up, however, if it can't, we may be in for at least some decent short-term volatility in the days ahead. Watch today's close and let's see what the NASDAQ wants to tell us.
As for the fiscal cliff concerns, I mentioned a few weeks ago that we shouldn't be overly concerned about all of the rhetoric, and more importantly not be concerned if a deal doesn't get done before the end of the year. It's our opinion whether a deal gets done this year or early next isn't going to matter when it comes to the long-term landscape of the markets. As a matter of fact, the markets will likely price in what it expects is going to happen well before it actually happens. If the media starts with the fear mongering and the markets start to move lower on news a deal isn't going to get done before NYE, that may very well simply end up being a good buying opportunity. Let's see how this plays out in the weeks ahead.