News Details – Smallcapnetwork
The Gold Bubble. What You Need to Know.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

You know, nine times out of ten we'd say the longer a trend stays in place, the greater the chance of a reversal. There's that one out of ten times though (when a trend takes on a life of its own) that the longer the momentum persists, the more likely it is to last - a self-fueling rally. That's the current state of gold. The strength and persistence of gold has simply reached ridiculous levels... and that's exactly why we're counting on it giving us a lot more upside before the market comes to its senses. Seriously. Don't think it ever happens? Think again. It's happened several times in just the last few years. One of the better examples of an insatiable rally was oil in 2007 and 2008. Most everyone knew it started to race then, but do you remember just how out of control it got? We're talking from a low of $50 per barrel in January of 2007 to a peak of $147 by July of 2008. That's only a 194% rally in eighteen months! As hot as gold's been with the current bullish leg starting in October of 2008, it's only up 98% since then, and it took 22 months to get there. Point being, we've seen crazier stuff than what gold's done lately. Oil and gold are hardly the only two examples of a wildfire rally though. The tech bubble of the late 90's is another great example of how just when it looks like a move can't go any further, it does anyway. Between October of 1998 and March of 2000, the NASDAQ Composite soared an unthinkable 273% ... in just 18 months! Real estate holdings gained an average of 134% between early 2003 and early 2007. So, never say never. There's a common element with these mega-trends though (besides the obvious one of immense size). At several points in time during each of them, at least some pros and amateurs alike felt there was no way they could last any longer. A brief dip was usually the clarion call for those doubts, but like any of the ultra-predictable Rocky Balboa movies, the rally pushed itself up off the mat and came back swinging (rising). Now, let's zoom in on a near-term chart of gold. Yes, it's overextended in the grand scheme of things, but here's the problem with a bearish assumption just yet... the best shot the gold bears had at popping the bubble on a more permanent basis was last week, when gold fell from a multi-year high of $1911/ounce to a low $1709/ounce three days later. That 10.5% plunge should have spooked the gold bulls away. It didn't even come close to doing so though. Instead, these buyers took the dip as an open invitation to start buying again; gold's rallied 7.3% off that low since then. Is it reasonable? Nope. Is it fundamentally justified? Don't be fooled - gold 'fundamentals' are an enigma. Is it a bubble? Probably, but does that matter? The only question that really matters is, are the majority of other traders still convinced enough about the upside of gold that they're going to keep buying? The answer is a resounding 'Yes!' Remember, oil, real estate, and tech stocks may have all been bubble-icious at one point, but there was some very good money to be made while the bubble was inflating just because traders continued to believe. Now it's gold's turn to do the same. On that note (and it couldn't have been scripted any better for fans of gold) the whole reason the market's been buying gold early and often since the end of 2008 has finally come to pass. That's right - I'm talking about the 'I' word... Inflation. As of April, the average annual inflation rate has been rolling in above 3.0%. Since May it's been coming in above the long-term average annual inflation rate of 3.43%. And let's face it - the government's calculation of inflation is more than generously optimistic. While that factoid alone vindicates gold's biggest buyers, the story is far from over. See, once inflation kicks in, it tends to last a while. This is even a little more likely now, in that Ben Bernanke simply can't raise the interest rates that would normally put the brakes in inflation. And just how high can gold go? You know, we hate to make calls like that because they're limiting. We'd rather pick an exit when the right time comes along.... and it will. Yes, there will be a point in time when this rally implodes, and will fall just as fast - maybe faster - than it was moving when it was on the way up. We don't see it happening for a while though, so let's just say 'stay tuned - we evaluate the trend daily'. For the record, however, we're not blowing off the outlooks that have gold reaching well into the $2000's. The best/easiest way to play this crazy rally is still with the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD). You can buy the fund, or if you're looking for some leverage, the option market for GLD is very liquid. On that note though, please understand there will still be ebbs and flows like the big pullback we saw last week. There always are. Whether you're talking about gold, oil, tech, real estate, or anything else, you'll see blips in the midst of all trends. Gold's looming short-term tops and bottoms are opportunities in themselves, whether you're looking for a swing trade, or just want a way to squeeze a little extra out of the bullish call we're making here. That's it. While gold may seem like it should be exhausted, the fact that it's been so unstoppable is what makes it such a bulletproof no-brainer now. You gotta' ride these bubbles while you can. Stick around... this story's just getting started. In other arenas: OK, it's not just us. Someone else thinks Apple (AAPL) is dancing with SmartTV and Web-enabled TVs... which Nyxio Technologies (NYXO) has already debuted. Lone Star Gold (LSTG) shares have fought their way back above a major ceiling, and this time it looks like it could be a little more permanent.